Moff & Associates

06/23/2026

Prediction markets suggest the Federal Reserve may show more agreement at its latest interest rate meeting.

Traders on Kalshi placed a 70% probability on a unanimous Fed rate decision in June. That would mark a shift from April, when four members dissented — the highest number of dissents since 1992.

The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady in the 3.50% to 3.75% range as policymakers continue weighing inflation, oil prices, and broader economic uncertainty.

A more unified vote could signal that policymakers are aligning around the current rate path, even as inflation remains above the Fed’s long-term target.

For households and businesses, Fed decisions can influence borrowing costs, savings yields, mortgage rates, and overall economic confidence.

Even when rates do not change, the level of agreement among policymakers can offer insight into how the central bank is reading the economy.

Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi largely forecast a unanimous decision among FOMC members at Wednesday's meeting, after April's divided vote.

06/23/2026

Consumers continued spending in May, even as higher prices and gas costs remained part of the picture.

Retail sales rose 0.9% in May, up from a revised 0.4% increase in April. Excluding gas station sales, retail sales rose 0.7%.

The gains were broad-based, with clothing, accessories, furniture, and online sales all moving higher. Online sales rose 1.5% during the month.

The data suggests consumers are still spending, supported in part by tax refunds and steady hiring. However, economists noted that the boost from tax refunds may fade, and higher gas prices could still affect household behavior.

Some shoppers appear to be adjusting by looking for discounts, changing where they fill up, or becoming more selective with purchases.

For the broader economy, retail sales offer a useful snapshot of consumer strength — and how households respond when prices, fuel costs, and confidence all shift at once.

Shoppers stepped up their spending in May, surpassing economists’ expectations, as temperatures warmed and gasoline prices leveled off.

06/21/2026

There's a version of your father you didn't know. The one who existed before you came along. Before the responsibility. Before the sacrifices, you may not have fully understood until you were older.

Most of us only piece that together with time.

What fathers leave behind isn't just memories. It's a way of moving through the world.

A standard.

A sense of what it looks like to take care of the people who depend on you.

That's worth honoring. 👔

Happy Father's Day weekend to every father and father figure out there.

06/19/2026

That's Abraham Lincoln's signature.

It appears on the Emancipation Proclamation, signed January 1, 1863.

Yet, it would be two and a half more years before enslaved people in Texas learned they were free.

They were kept in the dark on purpose.

On June 19, 1865, Union soldiers arrived in Galveston and delivered the news.

That's what Juneteenth commemorates.

It has been celebrated by Black Americans for more than 150 years and became a federal holiday in 2021. It's a day worth understanding, not just observing.

Wishing everyone a meaningful Juneteenth. 🤍

06/17/2026

Saving for retirement gets a lot of attention. Spending those savings can be just as important.

A recent survey found that only 31% of Americans know what “decumulation” means — the process of drawing down retirement assets over time.

That uncertainty may help explain why some retirees spend far less than they could. One report found that about one-third of retirees still had 100% or more of their initial retirement assets by their mid-80s.

For many people, the concern is not just having enough saved. It is knowing how to use those savings while accounting for healthcare costs, inflation, taxes, market changes, and longevity.

Common withdrawal guidelines, such as the 4% rule, may provide a starting point, but they do not account for every personal circumstance.

The transition from saving to spending can be both emotional and financial. After decades of building retirement assets, using them thoughtfully can take a different kind of confidence.

Many Americans spend decades saving for retirement, but lack a plan for using that money once they stop working, a new survey finds. Here's what to know.

06/17/2026

Most people assume that a spouse's unused estate tax exemption passes to the surviving spouse automatically.

It doesn't.

Claiming it REQUIRES A FILING WITH THE IRS within 9 months of a spouse's death.

The IRS doesn't send a reminder. The deadline just passes.

A six-month extension is available, bringing the total window to 15 months. But the clock starts the day your spouse dies, not the day you think to ask about it.

This is exactly the kind of detail that gets lost in the fog of grief and estate administration.

It's also exactly the kind of thing we watch for on behalf of the families we work with. We also help families by working with their tax, legal, and accounting professionals to make certain that paperwork is completed in a timely manner.

06/16/2026

The World Cup is expected to bring soccer fans from across North America, but the travel impact may not be felt equally.

Instead of one broad tourism surge, early data suggests demand may vary by host city, match, and price point.

Some cities are seeing stronger flight and hotel activity, while others are trailing last year’s pace. That means the economic lift for hotels, restaurants, transportation, and local businesses may depend heavily on location and timing.

The tournament is the largest World Cup to date, with 48 teams, 104 matches, and games across the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Still, travelers appear to be making practical decisions around ticket prices, lodging, trip length, and which matches are worth the cost.

For businesses, the takeaway is that major events can create opportunity—but demand does not always show up evenly or all at once.

The expected travel boom from the World Cup is looking like it will be a city-by-city, match-by-match test of pricing power.

06/15/2026

Father's Day is at the end of this week. Before the dinner and the gifts, there's something worth talking about.

Most men will show up for everyone around them without being asked. But when it comes to their own health, the appointments get pushed off longer than they should. 💚

The CDC reports that women are 33 percent more likely than men to visit the doctor and twice as likely to seek preventive care.

If there is a man in your life worth celebrating on Sunday, ask when he last had a checkup.

That conversation might matter more than any gift.

06/11/2026

True or false: Setting up a trust means your estate will avoid probate.

False. And it's one of the most common estate misunderstandings wealth strategists see. ⚖️

A trust doesn't protect anything the day you sign it. It has to be set up, meaning your assets need to be physically transferred into it:

▪️ Real estate titling may need to be addressed.

▪️ Bank and investment accounts need to be retitled in the name of the trust.

▪️ Insurance policies may need to be updated if the trust will be involved.

Overlooking these steps leaves the trust as an empty legal container.

Your estate may still go through probate. Creditors may still have access. The protections you prepared for may not apply.

The paperwork gets done, life moves on, so don’t let the trust get lost in the shuffle.

It happens more than most people realize. 📋

It's worth a conversation to make sure what you've built is actually doing what you intended. A trust involves a complex set of tax rules and regulations. Before moving forward, consider working with a professional who can guide you through the trust activation process.

06/10/2026

Major student loan changes are set to take effect July 1, bringing updates to borrowing limits, repayment options, and federal aid eligibility.

New rules will limit how much some students and parents can borrow. Parent PLUS loans will be capped at $20,000 per year and $65,000 total per student, while new caps will also apply to graduate and professional degree borrowing.

Repayment options are also changing. New federal loan borrowers will have fewer choices, with options narrowing to a tiered standard repayment structure or a new income-driven option called the Repayment Assistance Program.

Borrowers currently enrolled in SAVE may also need to choose a new repayment option, with loan servicers expected to send notices about next steps.

Pell Grant rules are changing as well, including expanded eligibility for some short-term workforce training programs.

For borrowers and students, the takeaway is simple: watch for communications from loan servicers, confirm contact information is current, and review available options before deadlines arrive.

The changes will affect how much students and their parents can borrow, as well as their repayment options.