Asbury Wealth Partners

11/02/2026

Observations & Insights – November 2, 2026

Technology Stocks Weigh on the Broader Market
Three modestly positive days to start the week gave way to selling pressure on Thursday and Friday, with big technology stocks again pulling the broader market lower. At Friday’s close, the NASDAQ was down 2.9% for the day and 2.0% for the week. The S&P 500 and the Dow both fell nearly 1% for the week.

Key Points
• The S&P 500 has moved sideways since August, masking significant weakness in technology stocks and a widening gap in performance among the major indexes.
• Technology and growth stocks led October's declines, with the NASDAQ falling 5.3%, compared with a 0.9% decline for the S&P 500 and a 1.7% gain for the Dow.
• Corporate earnings remain strong, despite mixed results from some major technology companies.
• The Fed held interest rates steady, but persistent inflation has increased expectations for another rate hike in December.
• Third-quarter GDP growth of 3.4% exceeded expectations, although signs of slowing employment growth raise questions about the economy's momentum.

Observations: Markets Digest Earnings and Economic Data
Source: John Hancock Investments, “Weekly Market Recap,” October 31, 2026
For the second month in a row, the U.S. stock market saw widely varied performance across the major indexes. Negative October results for many technology stocks and growth equities weighed on the NASDAQ, which fell 5.3% for the month. The S&P 500 was down 0.9%, while the Dow outperformed, rising 1.7%, owing in part to strong results from value stocks. The S&P 500 has essentially gone sideways since August.

With earnings season more than halfway over, full-season expectations rose modestly even as big technology companies reported mixed results. As of Friday, analysts projected that third-quarter earnings for companies in the S&P 500 rose 30.2%, up from a forecast of 29.5% the previous week, according to FactSet. Such an outcome would mark the third consecutive quarter of earnings growth exceeding 25%.

In a 10-2 board vote, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged, opting to hold steady following a September vote in which the Fed lifted the rate for the first time since 2023. As for the next policy meeting, Friday’s trading in rate futures markets implied a roughly 73% probability that the Fed will approve another quarter-point rate hike on December 9, versus a 27% probability of keeping rates unchanged, according to CME FedWatch.

The recent bond market sell-off continued to reverse modestly, as the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury remained below 5.00% after briefly slipping below that threshold the previous week. As of Friday afternoon, the 10-year yield was around 4.91%; the 2-year Treasury yield fell to 4.57%, the lowest in more than a month and a half.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for tracking inflation showed a further rise in prices. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index rose at an annual rate of 3.6% in September, up from a 3.4% rate the previous month. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, core PCE rose 3.1%, above a 3.0% reading in August, and well above the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target.

The U.S. government’s initial estimate of third-quarter GDP delivered a positive surprise, with growth estimated at an annual rate of 3.4% versus economists’ consensus estimate of 3.1%. The growth figure also marked an increase from the second quarter’s 2.2% GDP number.

A monthly labor market report due out on Friday will show whether September’s sluggish jobs growth extended into October. September’s report showed a monthly gain of 29,000 jobs—well below consensus expectations—and initial estimates for the previous two months were adjusted downward by a combined 60,000 jobs. September’s unemployment rate was 4.2%, up from 4.1% in August.

Insights: Turbulence Beneath the Surface
The major market indexes have made remarkably little progress over the past several months, but that does not mean investors have experienced a quiet market. Beneath the surface, particularly among technology stocks, the selling has been substantial. Some companies have experienced dramatic declines in a matter of days, giving back gains that took months to accumulate.

These rapid declines can be unsettling, but they are not unusual. One of the more interesting characteristics of financial markets is that volatility tends to occur in clusters. Markets can experience extended periods of relative calm followed by short bursts of unusually large price movements. During these episodes, sharp declines are often accompanied by equally dramatic rallies.

Selling pressure can feed on itself as investors reduce risk, leveraged positions are unwound and market sentiment deteriorates. Once that pressure subsides, prices can recover surprisingly quickly. This helps explain why some of the stock market's strongest daily gains have historically occurred close to its worst days.

The chart below illustrates this relationship. Notice how the largest positive and negative daily moves tend to occur during the same periods of heightened uncertainty rather than being evenly distributed over time.



The tendency for markets to move sharply in both directions makes short-term market timing particularly difficult. Investors who wait until uncertainty has disappeared may discover that a substantial portion of a recovery has already occurred. However, a sharp rally does not necessarily mean the selling has ended. Some of the largest daily gains have occurred during prolonged bear markets.

Volatility may be normal, but that does not mean the concerns behind the current selling are unwarranted. The extraordinary amount of money being committed to artificial intelligence is raising questions about future profitability. Companies such as Alphabet and Meta are spending enormous sums on data centers and computing infrastructure, while NVIDIA's growth depends in part on the willingness of its customers to sustain those investments. Although we believe AI has the potential to produce meaningful productivity gains over many years, the timing and financial returns remain uncertain.

Investors are also reassessing the valuations they are willing to pay for future earnings. Strong corporate profits have not prevented significant stock-price declines as price-to-earnings multiples have contracted. Higher Treasury yields make this adjustment more difficult, particularly for companies whose valuations depend heavily on expectations of future growth.

Meanwhile, persistent inflation and elevated energy prices complicate the Federal Reserve's decisions. Economic growth remains healthy, but the labor market is showing signs of slowing. Additional interest rate increases could place further pressure on economic activity, particularly if inflation is being driven by supply constraints that monetary policy cannot directly resolve.

These concerns help explain why the recent selling has been so pronounced. Investors are not necessarily abandoning the long-term opportunities created by artificial intelligence or questioning the profitability of every major technology company. They are reassessing how much they are willing to pay for those opportunities in an environment of greater uncertainty.

We continue to believe the longer-term outlook for corporate earnings and productivity remains favorable. Nevertheless, the combination of elevated interest rates, uncertain returns on AI investment and deteriorating market sentiment suggests that volatility could remain elevated in the near term.

Final Thoughts
We remain constructive about the longer-term outlook for equities, but the recent increase in volatility and weakness among technology stocks deserve attention. While periods of consolidation are normal and can ultimately be healthy, the concerns surrounding AI spending, inflation and interest rates are legitimate.

We believe the current environment favors patience, disciplined risk management and flexibility. Maintaining a positive long-term outlook does not mean ignoring near-term risks or assuming that every decline represents an immediate buying opportunity.

The current turbulence may prove to be a normal correction within a longer-term bull market. For now, we believe it is prudent to allow these uncertainties to play out while remaining prepared to take advantage of opportunities as they develop.

It is our aim at Asbury Wealth Partners that you find the market commentary we provide informative and useful. As our success grows mainly through referrals from our clients, we encourage you to share this weekly newsletter with your friends, family, and colleagues. If you are a client, we thank you for your business and your confidence. If you are not yet a client, we encourage you to contact us today and explore how our team may be able to add value to your unique financial situation.

Thank you,

Paul O'Hara, CFP®
[email protected]

10/26/2026

Observations & Insights – October 26, 2026

Markets Remain Unsettled
The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ posted fractional declines overall in a week that saw some big daily moves and a momentum shift. Modest rallies on Monday and Wednesday were offset by a Thursday retreat as continued pressure on technology stocks weighed on the broader market.

Key Points
• Despite relatively modest declines in the major indexes, many of this year's strongest-performing stocks have experienced substantial corrections.
• Market volatility is normal during periods of economic uncertainty and ahead of midterm elections.
• Historically, stocks have performed well following midterm elections.
• Third-quarter corporate earnings remain strong, with roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies scheduled to report next week.
• Elevated inflation and interest rates remain risks, but resilient earnings and longer-term productivity gains support our constructive outlook.

Observations: Markets Remain Unsettled as Earnings Season Accelerates
Source: John Hancock Investments, “Weekly Market Recap,” October 23, 2026

The recent bond market sell-off continued to ease as the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury slipped below 5.00% on Thursday for the first time in about a month before inching higher and closing right at that threshold on Friday. As recently as October 5, the yield peaked around 5.34%, the highest in more than two decades.

Bond market trading supported expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to hold steady on interest rates at the policy meeting scheduled to end on Wednesday. As of Friday afternoon, prices in rate futures markets implied a 90% probability that the Fed would keep its benchmark rate unchanged on October 28, according to CME FedWatch. However, the probability of a quarter-point rate hike at the Fed’s early December meeting was projected at more than 70%, with a 7% prospect of a steeper half-point increase.

About a quarter of the way through earnings season, a handful of U.S. mega-cap technology stocks were expected to continue generating a disproportionate share of overall earnings growth, but to a lesser extent than in recent quarters. Analysts forecast that the group of stocks known as the Magnificent Seven will post average third-quarter growth of 33.2%, according to FactSet. In contrast, the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 were projected to produce 27.7% growth.

Oil traded in a wide range, with the price of U.S. crude rising to nearly $104 per barrel on Monday, falling below $98 on Wednesday, and then bouncing back to more than $103 on Friday afternoon. At that price, oil’s cumulative gain over the past two weeks was around 12%.

Heavy selling of technology stocks on Thursday sent the NASDAQ to its biggest daily decline since June, with the index finishing 2.6% lower. The setback came on the heels of the NASDAQ’s 4.5% retreat over the previous week. At Friday's close, the index was about 6.0% below the record high that it set just two and a half weeks earlier.

The week produced widely divergent performance at the market capitalization and equity style levels. A U.S. small-cap benchmark rose 2.0%, while its large-cap counterpart was down 0.4%. As for style, a value benchmark finished 0.7% higher while its growth counterpart was 1.5% lower.

In addition to more quarterly earnings reports and Wednesday’s conclusion of a U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, investors will assess an initial government estimate of third-quarter GDP growth on Thursday. Also on Thursday, investors will get an updated reading on monthly inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

Next week will be particularly consequential for earnings season, with roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies expected to report results. Reports from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon will be closely watched for evidence of AI-related spending, revenue growth, profitability and management guidance. With such a large share of corporate America reporting in a short period, the results could meaningfully influence earnings expectations and market sentiment.

Insights: Market Volatility and the Midterm Opportunity

A Bull Market with Bruised Leadership
Recent volatility has understandably unsettled investors. Although the major indexes remain near their highs, many of this year's strongest performers have suffered substantial corrections. Technology and AI-related stocks have been especially vulnerable as investors reassess valuations, financing costs and the scale of infrastructure spending.

We should not minimize those losses. An individual stock can fall 20% or 30% while a broad index declines only modestly. That divergence is especially uncomfortable for investors who own former market leaders.

Not every price decline signals weaker business fundamentals. Some companies face reduced earnings expectations; others simply command lower valuations. We believe stocks have been consolidating near their highs since August as investors weigh growth against higher rates and demanding expectations.

The accompanying chart puts the broader market in perspective. The Russell 1000 Index's maximum drawdown in 2026 has been about 9%, less severe than several of the past decade's declines. That does not erase the deeper losses in individual stocks, but it shows that the index-level pullback has been relatively modest.



Midterm Elections: History Offers Encouragement
October's reputation for volatility, combined with uncertainty ahead of midterm elections, can make market swings feel especially unsettling. Political uncertainty may contribute to caution, but earnings, inflation and interest rates remain important drivers of stock prices.

Historically, midterm years have often brought significant corrections. What happens afterward is more encouraging: the chart below shows positive S&P 500 returns in the 12 months following every midterm election from 1950 through 2022.

The chart shows an average S&P 500 gain of 16.6% in the 12 months following the 19 midterm elections from 1950 through 2022. This is an unusually consistent historical pattern, although it is a small sample and no assurance of what will happen after this year's election.


Source: BNY Investment Strategy & Research Group

Elections can resolve uncertainty surrounding taxes, spending and regulation, potentially improving investor confidence. However, markets have advanced under different administrations and congressional configurations. Over time, economic growth, corporate earnings and monetary policy are more important than which party controls Washington.

Markets have advanced under different administrations and congressional configurations. The historical record offers perspective, not a forecast or an endorsement of any political outcome. The more useful lesson is that periods of political uncertainty and market weakness have frequently been followed by recoveries. Investors should be cautious about allowing short-term volatility to overwhelm their longer-term outlook.

Economic Fundamentals Remain the Foundation
The more important question is whether economic fundamentals can support higher stock prices. We believe there are reasons for optimism, alongside meaningful risks.

Corporate earnings remain encouraging. The coming week's unusually heavy reporting calendar will offer a clearer picture of business conditions, AI investment returns and expectations for 2027. Sustained earnings growth is a firmer foundation for stock prices than enthusiasm alone.

Consumer spending and economic activity have shown resilience, but elevated energy costs, inflation and borrowing rates pressure households and businesses. These risks could weigh on growth and valuations.

We expect AI to improve productivity over time, but its benefits will not arrive evenly. Not every company funding the buildout will earn attractive returns, making profitability and financial strength increasingly important.

The Federal Reserve must balance persistent inflation against the risk of unnecessarily weakening growth. Higher rates can cool demand but cannot directly resolve energy supply disruptions.

Final Thoughts: Keeping the Bigger Picture in Focus
We view the market's consolidation since August as uncomfortable but not unusual after a substantial advance. Further weakness is possible, especially among richly valued stocks. Post-midterm history is encouraging, and strong earnings support our constructive long-term outlook. Still, history is not a substitute for assessing today's economic fundamentals. Volatility is the price of owning stocks. While uncomfortable, periods of market weakness are a normal part of investing and do not necessarily undermine the longer-term opportunities supported by economic growth and corporate earnings.

It is our aim at Asbury Wealth Partners that you find the market commentary we provide informative and useful. As our success grows mainly through referrals from our clients, we encourage you to share this weekly newsletter with your friends, family, and colleagues. If you are a client, we thank you for your business and your confidence. If you are not yet a client, we encourage you to contact us today and explore how our team may be able to add value to your unique financial situation.

Thank you,

Paul O'Hara, CFP®
[email protected]

10/19/2026

Observations & Insights – October 19, 2026

Tech Sell-Off
Technology stocks sold off sharply last week, sending the NASDAQ down 4.5% and leaving it 5.3% below its October 6 record high. The S&P 500 fell 1.9%, while the Dow finished slightly higher.

Key Points
• Concerns about AI infrastructure spending triggered a sharp sell-off in technology stocks, even as other sectors demonstrated relative strength.
• Inflation remains stubbornly elevated, complicating the Federal Reserve's outlook and keeping investors focused on Treasury yields.
• Corporate earnings continue to grow at an impressive pace, although high expectations leave little room for disappointment.
• Weakness beneath the major indexes may be creating opportunities that headline index returns obscure.
• The market has been consolidating near its highs since August, making patience and selectivity especially important.

Observations: Growth Stocks Stall as Earnings Season Kicks Off
Source: John Hancock Investments, “Weekly Market Recap,” October 16, 2026

A rotation away from AI-related stocks and chipmakers weighed on U.S. large-cap growth stocks, while relative strength in healthcare and traditionally defensive sectors lifted the value equity style. A growth benchmark finished the week down 5.0%, while its value counterpart climbed 0.9%.

The decline in oil prices seen since mid-September reversed course, with U.S. crude rising more than 8% for the week and moving back above $100 per barrel on Friday. The shift came amid uncertainty over Middle East supplies and a larger-than-expected withdrawal from U.S. crude stockpiles. Even with the latest price rise, U.S. crude remained below a recent high of nearly $106 set on September 15.

Overall earnings expectations were modestly scaled back after mixed results came in from the major U.S. banks that opened earnings season. As of Friday, analysts projected that third-quarter earnings for companies in the S&P 500 rose 29.0%, down from a forecast of 29.4% a week earlier, according to FactSet. Such an outcome would mark the third consecutive quarter of earnings growth exceeding 25%.

Yields on longer-dated U.S. Treasury securities fell for the second week in a row, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending the week at 5.08%, down from 5.24% the previous week. The 30-year yield fell to 5.43% from 5.60%. Shorter-term yields declined more modestly, with the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.72%, versus 4.79% the prior week.

Two reports reflected persistently elevated inflation at the consumer and wholesale levels, with costs rising beyond energy prices. Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report showed a 3.7% annual rate in September, up from 3.4% the previous month. A separate Thursday report on producer prices showed wholesale inflation rose in September at a 6.3% annual rate, the highest since 2022.

U.S. retailers reported a bigger-than-expected gain, with sales up 0.8% in September versus economists’ consensus estimate of 0.3%. However, excluding gasoline, retail sales rose just 0.2%, suggesting that higher fuel prices accounted for much of the headline increase.

A South Korean stock benchmark dropped more than 14%, with the weekly sell-off driven largely by declines in the shares of the nation’s chipmakers and AI-related stocks. As of Friday, the index had fallen almost 38% since June, when it reached a record high.

In the week ahead, investors will focus on the next round of third-quarter earnings reports and management guidance, especially commentary on capital spending, demand and profit margins. Economic releases and movements in Treasury yields and energy prices will also remain important drivers of market sentiment.

Insights: Market Turbulence — Risk or Opportunity?
Last week’s sell-off showed that even a bull market can experience substantial turbulence. Technology shares, among the market’s strongest performers this year, fell as investors questioned valuations and the scale of AI infrastructure spending.

The divergence between major indexes and their individual stocks is striking. Although the S&P 500 remains near its highs, many companies have suffered substantial corrections, revealing risks and opportunities that headline returns can obscure.

A Bull Market Hiding a Bear Market?
Because the S&P 500 is weighted by market capitalization, its largest companies drive a disproportionate share of index returns. Their strength can conceal weakness elsewhere.

Market breadth has been uneven, with fewer stocks participating consistently in the advance. That does not necessarily signal an imminent bear market, but it suggests greater investor selectivity.


Source: Macro Micro

Some stocks have declined because earnings prospects weakened; others have become less expensive despite healthy fundamentals. We believe the latter may offer opportunities as conditions stabilize.

Interest Rates and the Bond Market Hold the Key
We expect technology and other high-growth stocks to remain especially sensitive to interest rates.

When Treasury yields rise, bonds become more competitive with stocks, and investors generally become less willing to pay higher multiples for future corporate earnings. This is particularly important for technology companies whose valuations depend heavily on expectations for earnings growth years into the future.

Even small changes in Treasury yields can produce outsized moves in technology shares and, given their index weightings, the broader market.

Treasury yields fell last week even as technology shares sold off, underscoring that rates are only one influence. AI spending concerns, high expectations and questions about future profitability can outweigh the benefit of lower yields. Still, bond-market movements and expectations for Federal Reserve policy will remain important drivers of valuations.

The latest inflation reports complicate the outlook. Consumer inflation accelerated in September, while producer prices indicated that businesses continue to face significant cost pressures. Much of the recent inflation has been influenced by energy prices and supply-related disruptions, factors that higher interest rates cannot directly resolve.

We remain concerned that the Federal Reserve could unnecessarily weaken economic growth by responding too aggressively to inflation driven partly by supply constraints. Our expectation is that inflation and interest rates will eventually stabilize, although the path may be uneven and take longer than anticipated.

Corporate Earnings Remain Encouraging
Corporate earnings remain an important foundation for our longer-term optimism.

FactSet’s October 16 update projected third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth of approximately 29%. Of the 9% of companies reporting, 84% beat earnings estimates, although the average surprise was smaller than historical norms. Encouragingly, earnings estimates have also improved beyond the largest technology companies.

First Trust’s October 16 Equity Newsletter highlights two encouraging trends. The S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has fallen to 18.91 times estimated earnings, although it remains above the chart’s long-term average of 17.25 times. Meanwhile, analysts have raised aggregate 2027 earnings estimates since December 2025 for the S&P 500 (+18.2%), S&P Midcap 400 (+6.1%) and S&P SmallCap 600 (+12.0%).



Together, the charts show how rising earnings estimates and a declining P/E multiple can make valuations more attractive, even when index prices remain elevated. The market is not necessarily cheap, but improving earnings prospects may create opportunities across company sizes.

These valuations depend on forecasts, not guaranteed earnings. Estimates could fall if growth slows, margins weaken or companies scale back investment.

High Expectations Create Vulnerability
We believe AI will deliver substantial productivity gains, but not every company funding or building the infrastructure will earn attractive returns.

The scale of spending raises questions about financing, profitability and how quickly investments will pay off. Some businesses may justify their valuations; others may not.

As the AI investment cycle matures, investors may place more weight on demonstrated earnings and cash flow than on projected growth.

Patience and Opportunity
We believe stocks have been consolidating near their highs since August. The major indexes have traded in a range as investors weigh strong earnings against elevated rates, persistent inflation and demanding valuations. Last week’s technology sell-off appears to be another episode in that process, rather than necessarily the start of a new phase.

We see this consolidation as potentially constructive. It gives earnings time to catch up with valuations, as First Trust’s charts illustrate. Further downside is possible, but a major index decline is not required for valuations to improve.

Over time, stabilizing inflation and interest rates could improve confidence and support higher valuation multiples, even if earnings growth moderates. Persistent inflation or recession would challenge that outlook.

For now, patience is more appropriate than pessimism. The market has been working through these pressures for months, and the next sustained advance may take time. We remain constructive over the longer term and intend to stay disciplined, selective and opportunistic.

Financial Planning: Trump Accounts
Sources: Internal Revenue Service, “Working Families Tax Cuts” and “Instructions for Form 4547” (December 2025); Invest America, “Dell $250 Contribution FAQ” (updated October 9, 2026).

We have received many questions about Trump Accounts and how they might fit into a family's financial planning. These new tax-advantaged investment accounts are designed to help children begin building long-term savings. Eligible U.S. citizen children born between 2025 and 2028 may receive a one-time $1,000 federal contribution, while certain children born between 2016 and 2024 may qualify for a separate $250 contribution funded by Michael and Susan Dell. Families and other eligible contributors may contribute up to a combined $5,000 annually per child in 2026, including qualifying employer contributions of up to $2,500. Investment earnings grow tax-deferred, with funds invested in eligible low-cost U.S. stock index funds.

Beginning in the calendar year the beneficiary turns 18, traditional IRA rules generally apply, potentially creating opportunities for Roth IRA conversions when the beneficiary is in a lower tax bracket. However, conversions may generate taxable income, and early distributions may be subject to additional taxes. Trump Accounts should be evaluated alongside 529 college savings plans and other strategies, as their tax treatment and withdrawal rules differ. We believe they are worth considering, particularly when government or employer contributions are available.

It is our aim at Asbury Wealth Partners that you find the market commentary we provide informative and useful. As our success grows mainly through referrals from our clients, we encourage you to share this weekly newsletter with your friends, family, and colleagues. If you are a client, we thank you for your business and your confidence. If you are not yet a client, we encourage you to contact us today and explore how our team may be able to add value to your unique financial situation.

Thank you,

Paul O'Hara, CFP®
[email protected]

10/12/2026

Observations & Insights – October 12, 2026

All-Time Highs
A strong start to the week lifted the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ to record highs on Tuesday. Neither index extended its record as the week progressed, but both finished around 1% higher overall, as did the Dow.

Key Points
• Stocks reached new all-time highs as the bull market approaches its fourth anniversary.
• Third-quarter earnings season kicks off this week with major banks reporting, providing an important test of corporate earnings growth and elevated market expectations.
• Attractive bond yields offer investors a compelling alternative to stocks, putting additional pressure on equity valuations.
• Political uncertainty, higher interest rates and inflation could trigger a correction, but pullbacks are a normal part of bull markets.
• We believe AI-driven productivity gains could extend the earnings cycle, while moderating inflation and interest rates could provide another catalyst for higher stock prices eventually.

Observations: Earnings Season on Deck
In the wake of recent bond market volatility, yields of 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries were slightly lower overall for the week but remained near their highest levels in more than two decades. At Friday's close, the 10-year yield was 5.24%; the 30-year was 5.60%. The 2-year Treasury fell to 4.79%, down from 4.84% the previous week.

Wall Street analysts maintained high expectations as major U.S. banks prepared to open quarterly earnings season. As of Friday, analysts surveyed by FactSet were forecasting an average third-quarter earnings growth rate of 29.6% for companies in the S&P 500. Such an outcome would mark the third consecutive quarter of earnings growth exceeding 25%.

Oil traded in a relatively narrow range for the second week in a row, in a marked shift from the price volatility seen since Middle East tensions escalated in March and April. On Friday afternoon, U.S. crude was trading around $91.50 per barrel, up fractionally from its price a week earlier. As recently as mid-September, oil was trading as high as $105; in early April, it traded as high as $115.

Wednesday’s release of minutes from the latest U.S. Federal Reserve meeting showed that policymakers anticipate possibly raising interest rates again before year end. However, it was unclear how soon such a raise might come. At its meeting in mid-September, the Fed raised its benchmark rate for the first time since 2023. Its next policy meeting ends on October 28.

A monthly gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level in five months amid persistent worries about inflation. The University of Michigan reported on Friday that its Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to a preliminary October reading of 46.3, down from a final September reading of 48.1 and 51.7 in August. Despite the decline, sentiment remains above the record low of 44.8 set in May 2026.

A U.S. small-cap stock benchmark underperformed for the week, extending a recent run of lagging results for the Russell 2000 Index amid concerns about elevated interest rates. At Friday’s close, the Russell 2000 was down a cumulative 5.7% over the past five weeks, versus a 1.0% gain over that period for a U.S. large-cap index.

A Consumer Price Index report scheduled for release on Wednesday will provide a major data point for the U.S. Federal Reserve ahead of its policy meeting late this month. The most recent CPI report released in September showed inflation at a 3.4% annual rate in August, unchanged from the previous month and still well above the Fed’s 2.0% target.
Source: John Hancock Investments, “Weekly Market Recap,” October 9, 2026

Insights: Is This Bull Market Stronger Than Investors Think?
The stock market continues to surprise investors. Despite stubborn inflation, higher interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty and concerns about government borrowing, stocks have continued reaching new highs. The current bull market turns four years old this month, and investors are understandably questioning how much longer it can continue.

We have remained constructive on stocks, largely because corporate earnings have continued growing despite a challenging economic environment. However, I believe the more interesting question is whether investors are underestimating how much further earnings can grow, particularly as artificial intelligence and other technological advances begin delivering productivity improvements throughout the economy.

Four Years into the Bull Market
Bull markets do not come with expiration dates. The S&P 500 has gained approximately 120% since its October 2022 low. Although that is an impressive advance, history suggests that bull markets can continue well beyond their fourth anniversary.



The chart above puts the current bull market into historical perspective. While its age may make investors uncomfortable, four years is not necessarily a reason to expect the advance to end. More often, bull markets encounter trouble when economic growth deteriorates, corporate earnings weaken or financial conditions become sufficiently restrictive to undermine business activity.

Are We in an Earnings Bubble?
In a recent discussion on The Compound and Friends podcast, Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer raised an interesting question about whether investors may be experiencing an earnings bubble rather than a traditional valuation bubble. The concern is not simply that stock prices have risen too far, but that investors may be extrapolating unusually strong corporate earnings growth too far into the future.

That is a legitimate concern, particularly given the enormous investment in artificial intelligence. Eventually, companies will need to demonstrate that this spending produces an adequate return. However, I believe this earnings cycle may last longer than investors anticipate.

The initial phase of AI investment has primarily benefited semiconductor manufacturers, cloud computing providers and other infrastructure suppliers. The next phase could be much broader, as businesses throughout the economy begin using these technologies to reduce costs, improve efficiency and increase productivity.

If those benefits materialize, manufacturers, healthcare providers, financial institutions, retailers and service companies could all experience improved profitability. In my view, the longer-term opportunity is not limited to the companies building AI infrastructure but extends to the businesses that eventually put that technology to work.

Stocks Are Becoming Less Expensive
One of the most interesting developments in this bull market is that stock prices have continued rising while valuation multiples have declined. Normally, investors associate higher stock prices with more expensive valuations. However, that is not necessarily true when corporate earnings are growing faster than stock prices.

According to Carson Research, the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings multiple declined from 22.2 at the end of 2025 to approximately 19.4 in early October. Meanwhile, forward earnings expectations increased substantially. Investors are effectively paying less for each dollar of expected corporate earnings, even though stock prices have risen.



The chart above illustrates how earnings growth has more than offset the downward pressure on valuations from higher interest rates. This is encouraging because it suggests that the market's advance has been supported by improving corporate fundamentals rather than simply investors becoming willing to pay increasingly expensive multiples.

That does not mean stocks are cheap. Valuations remain relatively elevated, and forward earnings estimates are expectations rather than guarantees. Nevertheless, the market has become less expensive relative to its anticipated earnings, despite reaching new highs.

Stocks Have Competition Again
Another important consideration is that bonds are once again offering attractive yields. With the 10-year Treasury yielding approximately 5.2% and the 30-year around 5.6%, investors can earn meaningful income from high-quality fixed-income securities without assuming the same risks associated with stocks.

For investors in higher tax brackets, municipal bonds can also be compelling. Depending on the investor's tax situation, high-yield municipal bonds may offer attractive taxable-equivalent income, although they carry additional credit and liquidity risks compared with Treasuries.

This competition for investment dollars helps explain why stock valuations have contracted. When investors can earn attractive yields from bonds, they become less willing to pay elevated multiples for corporate earnings.

Corrections Are Normal
I would not be surprised to see another market correction as we approach the midterm elections. Political uncertainty, concerns about potential tax increases at the state and federal levels, and the possibility of additional interest-rate increases could all contribute to volatility.

However, corrections are a normal part of investing and do not necessarily signal the end of a bull market. They can help reduce excessive speculation, bring valuations into better balance and create opportunities for long-term investors.

The more important question is whether a correction reflects deteriorating economic fundamentals or simply changing investor expectations. As long as corporate earnings remain healthy and the economy continues growing, I would be reluctant to interpret every pullback as evidence that the bull market has run its course.

What Could Take Stocks Higher?
While earnings growth has been the primary driver of the market, there is another potential source of support that has been largely absent recently: expanding valuation multiples.

Higher interest rates have made investors less willing to pay elevated prices for future corporate earnings. However, that relationship can work in both directions. If inflation begins to moderate and Treasury yields stabilize or decline, investors may once again become willing to pay higher multiples for those earnings.

A resolution to the war involving Iran could also improve the outlook. Lower energy prices could ease inflationary pressures, provide relief to consumers and businesses, and give the Federal Reserve greater flexibility in setting monetary policy.

If corporate earnings continue growing while inflation moderates and interest rates stabilize, stocks could benefit from both higher profits and expanding valuations. That combination would provide a more favorable backdrop than the one investors have navigated recently.

Final Thoughts
Four years into this bull market, there are legitimate reasons for caution. Interest rates remain elevated, inflation has been persistent and investors are questioning whether extraordinary corporate earnings growth can continue. Political uncertainty surrounding the midterm elections could also contribute to another correction.

Nevertheless, I believe the longer-term earnings outlook remains stronger than many investors appreciate. The enormous investment in artificial intelligence is still in its early stages, and the productivity benefits are only beginning to reach the broader economy. As businesses find ways to produce more efficiently, control costs and improve profit margins, earnings growth could continue well beyond the current investment cycle.

Stocks have already demonstrated that they can advance despite higher interest rates and declining valuation multiples. If inflation moderates, bond yields stabilize and geopolitical tensions ease, the market could eventually benefit from both continued earnings growth and expanding valuations.
That is why we remain constructive on the longer-term outlook. Corrections are an inevitable part of investing, but I believe the earnings and productivity runway supporting this bull market may be considerably longer than investors currently expect.

It is our aim at Asbury Wealth Partners that you find the market commentary we provide informative and useful. As our success grows mainly through referrals from our clients, we encourage you to share this weekly newsletter with your friends, family, and colleagues. If you are a client, we thank you for your business and your confidence. If you are not yet a client, we encourage you to contact us today and explore how our team may be able to add value to your unique financial situation.

Thank you,

Paul O'Hara, CFP®
[email protected]

Send a message to learn more