WS Wealth Management, LLC

05/25/2022

Stock Market Correction or Bear Market?

https://www.wswealthmanagement.com/post/stock-market-correction-or-bear-market?fbclid=IwAR14X7TPUuJd6ZlHciJK2Xy59cZG2LJ_PvfTzcj3C_qQKbLLLL3a5smHXic

02/07/2022

We should see strong growth in 2022-23 as the world opens up and logistics issues are resolved.

There is a level of pent-up demand in the US economy that we have rarely, if ever had in the past. The US entered 2020 with drawn down inventories after the 'trade war' with China clearing the inventory levels from the late 2018/early 2019 buildup. The shutdowns of production in 2020 and into 2021 d...

01/06/2022

For most people, their home is their most valuable asset and if not, it is still a very significant asset.

The US Home Price Index saw unprecedented growth from mid-2020 thru 2021. Demand was outstripping supply for numerous reasons: below trend home building for the prior decade, people looking to get out of big cities, remote work adoption, etc. In the chart below we had an 18 month surge that showed U...

06/24/2021

We are sponsoring the the Jammin Java Summer Concert Series in Vienna, VA this year.

Below, a couple of our clients used the WS VIP table, had a great time, and even managed to get a shot with the banner in the background.

If you're local and you want to go, let us know!

04/27/2021

This is the first part in a series on why we think economic growth will lead to increased inflation and interest rates ahead.

How tight is the need for trucking to move goods nationally? About the tightest on record. In the chart below we can see that trucking is in high demand almost everywhere nationally. Currently the Load to Truck Ratio is significantly greater than 2017 and 2018 when we had 3% GDP growth. The C.H. Rob...

11/05/2020

We may not who the next president is, but both will be adding to the national debt...

With the election too close to call and therefore the next level of government stimulus spending still unknown we thought it would be a good time to review who holds US government debt as there will eventually be more of it coming. As seen in the chart below, it is mostly Americans and American inst...

10/27/2020

There is still a lot of work to do...

Regardless of who wins the election, getting the economy hitting on all cylinders will be a challenge based on Covid restrictions (some reasonable, some not), a languishing global economy, and already high levels of government debt. Since February we've been in various stages of shutdown in various....

10/14/2020

A continuation of rising confidence across all sectors could get us back to pre-pandemic GDP levels rapidly.

Sentiment tends to drive behavior. As people feel more confident in their outlook for their sports team, their country, their job/business, or the economy, poeple are usually willing to spend more and even take more risk. Economic and business confidence therefore can be a good indicator of the pros...

10/07/2020

There is no benefit without a cost.

The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and continuing market liquidity programs has driven interest to historic lows.

Will the cost be a convexity trap?

Convexity relates to the interaction between a bond's price and its yield as it experiences changes in interest rates. In general, the higher the coupon, the lower the convexity, because a 1% bond is more sensitive to interest rate changes than a 10% bond. - When the level of interest rates is 1% an...

09/23/2020

The more you know

There are numerous technical and fundamental indicators one can use to try to determine if the market is anywhere from cheap to overvalued. The Price/Earnings Ratio of the S&P 500 is one of those indicators. From Investopedia: "The price-to-earnings ratio (PE ratio) is the ratio for valuing a compan...

09/15/2020

There is likely more pain to come in the Commercial Real Estate asset class.

As always, due diligence is imoprtant.

While we are positive on the long term outlook for the US economy and investment markets, the recovery and risks over the short to intermediate period are quite different for various asset classes. One asset class that is currently and likely to see continued pressure is Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...

09/01/2020

Our view on the Fed's new inflation policy.

The Federal Reserve Bank Chairman announced a change in interest rate policy last week. The new policy's new goal is that “following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2%, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for some time.”...