Dennis Prost - CFP RF

07/01/2025

MARKET UPDATE 7.1.2025

According to Avi Gilburt of ElliottWaveTrader.com, “…we still cannot make any reasoned or reliable assessments as to whether that decline is going to be the start of a much bigger decline pointing to the 3500-3800 SPX region in a more direct fashion, or if the decline will be corrective and setting us up for one more rally into the end of the year.”

With that said, I’ll list recent reports that support Mr. Gilburt’s cautious statement:

New Home Sales Down

In May, we witnessed the largest drop in home sales since 6.2022, down 13.7%.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-new-home-sales-fall-more-than-expected-may-inventory-rises-2025-06-25/

Gross Domestic Product Declined

The first quarter real GDP has been revised to the annual rate 0.5%, where in the 2024 fourth quarter we had a 2.4% increase.
https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2025-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and-corporate-profits

Retail Sales Fell

Retail Sales fell 0.9%, which includes autos. However, online sales saw an increase of 0.9%, various retailers rose 2.9%, as well as furniture sales which were up 1.2%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/17/retail-sales-may-2025

Initial Jobless Claims Fell

As of June 21, the number of citizens applying for unemployment fell 246,000 to 236,000. As of June 14, continuing Jobless Claims rose by 37,000.
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-fell-to-236k-last-week-202506261237

Durable Goods Orders Swelled

Durable Goods (lasting more than 3 years) new orders increased 16.4% last month. This typically represents faith in the economy.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/26/durable-goods-orders-surge-16-4-in-may

US Economy

Per some economists, the Fed may reduce its key rate 2 more times in the next 6 months.
https://apnews.com/article/inflation-trump-economy-federal-reserve-43fd4506f5303537bb0ef8c34fb18112

In light of the recent reports, I have increased the client portfolios to 40-60% in Fixed Income. I am also investing in shorter term trades to take advantage of the volatility in the market.

The U.S. economy is mostly in good shape but that isn’t saving Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell from a spell of angst.

03/27/2025

I read an intriguing article today, "Does Trump Want a Recession?" authored by Nick Ward. https://www.widemoatresearch.com/wide-moat-daily/does-trump-want-a-recession/

Mr. Ward points to the year-to-date S&P 500 drop of about 8% as of March 14, 2025 (now nearly 13%) as an indication of a looming recession. He further shows that our rising debt is unsustainable given the current interest rates. The net interest on this massive debt is our 5th largest government expenditure!

One way to lower the cost of debt is to lower interest rates & a small recession may do just that, persuading the FED to reduce interest rates. On March 11, President Trump said "You know, nobody gets rich when the interest rates are high."

Secretary of Treasury, Scott Bessent, wants to lower interest rates because we have a lot of short-term debt that needs to be refinanced within the next 6 months. When interest rates come down, investors buy US Government bonds. In fact, today I just purchased a 20-year government bond in the portfolios & XLU, a utilities fund, which is heavily financed by public debt. I intend to purchase more fixed-income securities as interest rates continue to decline.

This time around, it seems like President Trump could be trying to implement a small-scale recession.

10/22/2024

On September 18, 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to cut the Feds Fund Rate for the first time since 2020 when we had the Covid crisis.

It is interesting to know that the last time they made a 0.50% rate cut was September 18, 2007. Since the rate cut in September, rates have actually gone back up. A 30-year mortgage is now back up to 7.28%. Possible reasons why interest rates are back up are:

1. If our money supply grows too large in comparison to the economy, the US dollar will decrease in value.
2. Foreign countries, like China & Japan are selling US government bonds, due to their economic issues.
3. With all the banks failing, they can’t afford to lower interest rates too fast.

The FOMC is projected to cut rates 2 more times in 2024 – 0.25% in November & 0.25% in December, but will it do any good?

Over the last 2 years, the FOMC raised rates 11 times. Over the past year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has recorded an ongoing drop in inflation. The CPI is currently at 3% from 9% 4 years ago. The Fed is shooting for 2%.

In my investment portfolios, I’ve invested in long Treasury Inflation Protection Bonds (TIP) and the Aggregate Bond Portfolio (AGG). The thinking is that if the market is going to correct, US Bonds are typically a safe haven.

Based on the technical indicators, the stock market is overvalued. As most of you know, I like to buy undervalued stocks. Hopefully, the market will move one way or the other in a couple of weeks.

09/11/2024

The September Swoon

The best months to be long in the market are November through May. The indexes actually went up in November & December during the 2008 stock market crash.

September is the worse month to be bullish in the market. In the past decade, SPX has performed negatively in 7 out of 10 Septembers.

2014 -1.22%
2015 -1.55%
2016 -5.52%
2020 -3.46%
2021 -3.64%
2022 -8.23%
2023 -5.04%

I’m expecting there will be considerable market volatility leading up to the election.

On a positive note, Crude Oil prices came down to $65.28 yesterday, which will lower gas prices in the short term.

02/13/2024

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02/12/2024

WEEK IN REVIEW

Market Recap and General Outlook

o Tech and semiconductor stocks led the market to the upside this week
o Top 10 High-Caps % of market capitalization chart
o Mega-Caps extreme overbought charts
o Leading Economic Indicator vs SPX disparity chart
o These charts indicate that corrective forces will likely hit very soon and could be very sharp to the downside
o Projecting 1% potential upside vs 10% potential downside in coming months

Index and Bond Updates
o Indexes gained around 1% for the week
o 30-Year bond market lost 2.25 points
o 10-Year yields are up 14 basis points
o Gold lost around $18
o Silver is down around 18 cents
o The dollar is likely to chop for a few weeks before a downside move
o Oil is up over $4

STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS

• S&P 500 (SPX)
o Getting into a period of risk, likely to correct – Weekly chart
o The best case projection on the downside is around $4800, $4650 is more likely – Weekly chart
o Correction low timing is projected around mid March – April – Weekly chart
o Monthly chart projects a correction into spring before another move up through the summer/late year
o The risk/reward is not great to the upside
o Risks are increasing of sharp jumps in the VIX 2024-2026
That’s the show for this week!
________________________________________
DISCLAIMERS
Askslim.com, Inc. owns and operates the website known as: www.askslim.com. All of the information on www.askslim.com is solely for entertainment, informational and educational purposes only and is not investment or trading advice. None of the information on the Website or in emails is guaranteed to be accurate, complete, useful or timely.
Please go askslim.com for the full disclaimer, terms and conditions and privacy policy.

________________________________________
The information above is shared from Askslim.com and is not the opinion of VIMA, LLC.

Call now to connect with business.

08/21/2023

WEEK IN REVIEW

Market Recap and General Outlook
• The stock market was under steady pressure this week
• Interest rates and China economic problems weighed on the market
• Retail sales were strong in the US and the economy is still growing, still inflation risk
• A resumption of the bond bear market is likely
• Important lows for the bond marker are likely not until 2024
• If stocks fall big money will temporarily move into the bond market
• Downside pressure is significant in the stock market, selling opportunity didn’t occur
• Projecting a low in the stock market around mid – October
• There is potential for a 13% drop in the stock market

Index and Bond Updates
• Major indexes are down 2% – 4%
• 30-Year bond market is down 1.5 points
• 10-Year yields gained 6 basis points
• Gold is down $23 for the week
• The dollar gained .5%
• Oil is down $3.30, likely to go under $76

STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS

MidCap 400 ETF (MDY)
• Projecting a decline into October to around $457 – $445 – Weekly chart
• In a negative condition – Weekly chart
• There is likely to be a bounce before moving to the downside again – Daily chart

Russell 2000 Index (RUT)
• Momentum turned negative – Daily chart
• Projecting a bounce to around $1908 that fails – Daily chart

S&P 500 (SPX)
• The cycle trough is in mid – October – Weekly chart
• Could see a decline under $4000
• Best case decline is likely around $4200 – Weekly chart
• Momentum is negative – Weekly & daily charts
• A rebound would likely go to $4400 – $4410 before turning back down – Daily chart

That’s the show for this week!
________________________________________
DISCLAIMERS
Askslim.com, Inc. owns and operates the website known as: www.askslim.com. All of the information on www.askslim.com is solely for entertainment, informational and educational purposes only and is not investment or trading advice. None of the information on the Website or in emails is guaranteed to be accurate, complete, useful or timely.
Please go askslim.com for the full disclaimer, terms and conditions and privacy policy.

________________________________________
The information above is shared from Askslim.com and in not the opinion of VIMA, LLC.

07/10/2022

It's the LITTLE choices we make every single day.