Hughes Investment Advisory Services LLC

Hughes Investment Advisory Services LLC State Registered Investment Advisor and Investment Advisor Rep since 1993 J. During the last 30 years Mr. He lives in Stratford, Ct.

Britt Hughes has been President of Hughes Investment Advisory Services LLC since November 1993 - investing family and client assets in both US and overseas markets. After graduating from Fairfield Prep he earned a BA in both Political Science and French at Central Connecticut State University. Upon graduation he started a career as a stock broker with two brokerage firms in his home state of Conne

cticut becoming Senior Broker and Options Principal with People's Securities Inc., subsidiary of People's Bank of Bridgeport Ct. Hughes has been an avid competitive sailor racing on a national level, first on his own J-24 and lately with larger international sailing programs. with his wife and 10-year old daughter. HIAS LLC is a state registered investment advisory firm serving multiple client types including individuals, retirement plans, trusts and small businesses. Investment portfolios are broadly diversified across global capital markets and can include exposure to commodities and real estate in addition to more traditional investments in US and non-US stocks and bonds. Investments include both closed and open-ended mutual funds, ETF's, REIT's, MLP's and individual equities and bonds. HIAS LLC was established in 1993 by J. Britt Hughes who continues to manage the firm and all client portfolios. HIAS LLC utilizes Fidelity Institutional Wealth Services, a business unit of Fidelity Investments, one of the worlds largest providers of financial services. Fidelity Institutional offers a powerful set of capabilities for registered investment advisors including sophisticated wealth management and services, extensive practice management resources and a flexible, open technology environment all backed by one of the strongest wealth management platforms in the business.

Q3 Outlook LetterOctober 1, 2024Dear Clients and Investors,The US stock market performed well during Q3 with the S&P 500...
10/16/2024

Q3 Outlook Letter

October 1, 2024

Dear Clients and Investors,

The US stock market performed well during Q3 with the S&P 500 up 5.5% and is now up 21% year to date.

Key 2024 economic data points:
- 2024 Q3 Atlanta Fed Estimated Real GDP growth: 2.5%
- 2024 Latest CPI Inflation: +2.5%
- 2024 S&P 500 YRI Estimated S&P Earnings: $250

The above numbers continue to show an economy with moderate growth, an improving inflation picture, and strong earnings growth. As I expected, US corporations with the ability to pass on higher costs have been an excellent place to be invested during this 3-year period of strong growth and high inflation.

The Federal Reserve has pivoted on the interest-rate front! The FOMC reduced the federal funds rate by half a point to 4.75%-5.0% at their most recent monetary policy meeting. This decision was prompted by an improving inflation outlook and concerns about a weakening labor market. The Fed is trying to orchestrate a so called “soft landing” for the US economy which means lowering interest rates to head off a potential recession.

As has been the case all year, economic indicators are showing a very mixed picture of the nation’s economic health. On the plus side the US consumer sector is proving resilient with consumer sentiment still strong with the Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rising to 69 in September however at the same time US credit card debt hit a new record, $1.14 trillion! Gold continues to hit new all-time highs which is no doubt due to lingering inflation concerns and the growing US Debt. This debt problem is clearly unsustainable and needs immediate addressing by Washington however the topic is barely discussed on the Presidential campaigns of both candidates.

So where do we stand as we head into the final quarter of 2024? The widening Middle East war remains my number one risk factor. Number two and three are similar with the Ukraine war and friction in and around Taiwan and the South China Sea. Four is the possibility of a recession. We now have a significant Port strike on the Eastern Seaboard and a massive cleanup from Hurricane Helene. History tells us that the US economy will probably plow through all this with barely a hiccup however they all deserve close attention as we head into the Fall/Winter and a closely contested Presidential election. Remarkably the path of least resistance may continue to be higher stock prices as we head into the final quarter. How can this be with all the issues mentioned above?

Strong corporate earnings, lower inflation, strong investment inflows from overseas and now a Federal Reserve that has reversed course and started lowering interest rates for the first time in almost 5 years. When you add the overseas investment, lower interest rates and continued strong government spending it adds up to a strong tailwind for economic growth.

One theme that I have been writing about for the last 5 years is the US Governments accumulated deficit which now stands at 37 trillion up from 11 trillion in 2011. The interest on this debt is now over 1 trillion a year, surpassing the military budget in 2024. I have often warned and asked how this level of debt can be reconciled as it’s clearly unsustainable in the medium to long term. What’s occurred because of this debt runup is starting to become clearer with multiple downgrades to the US debt and a significant overall increase in yields on all US debt maturities. What else has resulted from this debt explosion? Strong GDP growth and corporate earnings resulting in higher equities, gold, silver, and bitcoin prices.

SO, WHAT’S HAPPENING HERE? It’s slowly but surely becoming clearer to me that either intentionally or unintentionally the idea of deliberately inflating our way out of debt has been reintroduced into mainstream conversation. The term “inflating out of debt” refers to a situation where a government or an economy deliberately pursues a policy of generating inflation to reduce the burden of its debt. In this scenario the government uses inflation as a tool to decrease the real value of its outstanding debt over time. Of course, inflation also decreases the buying power of the dollar, and people’s savings.

It’s important to note that “inflating out of debt” can have both positive and negative consequences. On the positive side, it can provide temporary relief to governments with high debt burdens. However, it also carries risks, such as the potential for hyperinflation or loss of confidence in the currency. There is no stated policy that this strategy is being employed by the US government in fact the Federal Reserve states that interest rate policy is focused on reducing inflation to their 2% target.

The bottom line is that what the Federal Reserve says and what Washington politicians do is sometimes in conflict and therefore its critical to follow the facts and watch what’s happening and not just what’s being said to determine how this unsustainable debt problem will come to resolution in the years ahead. How this plays out is already affecting investment classes across the board and will be critically important in determining where we want our investment dollars invested in the future.

What else gets me excited about the US economy and markets looking into the final quarter of 2024 and beyond? Many are areas that I have discussed in previous market letters: A nuclear power renaissance supplemented by oil, natural gas, wind, and solar. A re-building of the US power grid will be needed along with these energy growth efforts which should spur the entire energy industry. The Utility industry will benefit from increased energy demand and infrastructure buildout. Industrial re-shoring. Space, aviation, and the defense sector all look primed for innovation and growth. Pharma and Med Tech should have renewed growth and interest as AI is integrated into their operations. Some of our pharma stocks have been huge winners already thanks to drug discoveries in cancer, weight loss, Alzheimer’s, and soon hopefully non-opioid pain relief. Gold as an inflation hedge.

Overall, I continue to favor large-cap, dividend paying, mostly US based multi-national companies with strong balance sheets. We love businesses with irreplaceable brand names, wide moats, high margins, grow their dividends, and have modest debt. Risk/reward now seems equal between equities and fixed income – the 60/40 portfolio now works! Focused REIT’s, MLP’s and specialized bond/income funds look good as income producers once again. I believe that our portfolios are well positioned to produce consistently attractive long-term risk adjusted returns while preserving capital. Given all the above, I will remain vigilant, assume little, and continue to follow the investing tenants that we know, through experience, work in the medium to long-term.

Please do not hesitate to give me a call to discuss the above analysis.

Sincerely,

J. Britt Hughes
Investment Advisor Representative
Bay Colony Advisors
203.209.4797
[email protected]
www.hiasllc.com

Investment advisory services offered by Bay Colony Advisors, a registered investment advisor, doing business as Hughes Investment Advisory Services LLC. No Advice may be rendered by Bay Colony Advisors d/b/a Hughes Investment Advisory Services LLC unless a client service agreement is in place. Bay Colony Advisors does not provide accounting, tax, or legal advice. No part of this newsletter should be considered investment advice. If your financial circumstances have changed, you should contact your investment advisor representative. Principal Office: 86 Baker Avenue Extension, Suite 310, Concord, MA 01742. Phone: 978-369-7200.

https://static.twentyoverten.com/5d2347a68f3a3a7a7afb3e41/rC_QHnv2sTz/Bay-Colony-Advisors-ADV-Part-2A-2Bs-Wrap-Fee-Brochure-June-2024-Submitted-6262491.pdf

01/05/2023

January 1, 2023

Dear Clients and Investors,

Happy New Year! Both the stock and bond markets performed poorly in 2022. This is a rare occurrence, as equities and bonds usually have an inverse relationship. But with a hawkish Fed, both investment classes suffered notable losses in the same year for the first time since the late 1960’s!

For Q4 the S&P 500 was up +7.1% and dropped -19.4% for the year.
The overall bond market was down -15% one of the worst years on record for bonds.

Key 2022 economic data points:
- Estimated final 2022 Real GDP growth 2.0%
- Estimated final 2022 Inflation +7.1%
- Estimated final 2022 S&P 500 Earnings $215

The above data is, after all, what matters most in calculating how the economy is doing which directly effects corporate earnings and the performance of investment classes across the board. Take out the 7.1% inflation rate and these numbers look very good, but guess what, we can’t remove inflation from the numbers!

Looking back at last year’s predictions: I was close on GDP Growth (+3%), Inflation (+6%), and S&P 500 Earnings ($225). I went against the consensus opinion of 2 rate hikes at the time and expected 5 Fed rate hikes totaling 1.5%, however the Fed raised rates 7 times totaling 4.25%! It was these larger and more numerous rate hikes that caused my S&P 500 +6% return figure to be too optimistic with the average dropping -19% for 2022.

For 2023 I’m forecasting:
- GDP growth of 1.2%
- PCE Inflation of 3.5%
- S&P 500 Earnings of $225 or +4%
- S&P 500 return of +14%
- A lower year-end Federal Funds rate of 3.5%

So where do we stand as we head into 2023? The interplay between Federal Reserve policy, inflation, economic growth, and earnings will drive the markets in 2023. The Federal Reserve continues to walk a tightrope in its battle to tame inflation. The Fed has been aggressive in raising the benchmark short-term interest rate to slow down demand for goods and services enough to lower overall inflation. Concurrently, the Fed is trying to guard against slowing the economy too hard and pushing it into recession.

Recent inflation data are mixed but showing clear signs of slowing. The Fed is hoping to slow the economy and inflation enough to get the inflation rate back to their desired 2% rate, however, the days of sub 2% CPI that we enjoyed from ’08-’20 are likely gone, possibly for a long time. Inflation could fall far enough (3%-4%) for the Fed to essentially think it has accomplished its mission (although it won’t say it directly as their target is still 2%) but for all intents and purposes, we could exit 2023 without an inflation problem.

Will the slowing economy result in a recession or a “soft landing”? The consensus on the Street going into 2023 is recession. The inverted yield curve strongly suggest recession. Current Atlanta Fed estimates for Q4 2022 shows positive GDP growth of +3.9%. That’s not a recession! I don’t know which it will be but in either case my core investment approach to 2023 will be similar. Owning a portfolio of high-quality companies that can outperform in a slowing or recessionary economy by growing earnings, increasing market share, and increasing dividends.

Touching on a theme that I wrote about one year ago, the worlds authoritarian leaders in Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran had a bad year. Russian aggression in Ukraine has not worked out for Putin. The other dictators know this. As a group their economies are reeling. Their international political isolation is growing as free market capitalism and freely elected societies show our socioeconomic strength. The West and our allies are strengthening our supply lines, re-shoring production, and slowly re-instating our energy independence from Russia. All positives for Western economies.

Specifically, given the above concerns where do I find attractive investments today? The 2022 generalized sell-off provides opportunities to buy attractive companies with strong individual stories that diverge from the gloomier top-down narrative. These opportunities could prove fleeting, so now is the time to take a hard look at equity portfolios with an eye to selectively upgrading holdings. The Cloud buildout continues, Digitization, Defense, Semiconductors and EV’s, Space and Communications, Medical/Pharma/Biotechnology, Farming and Energy including clean energy such as Nuclear and Hydrogen. These are the growth areas where the US will play an important leading role in the years ahead.

Overall, I continue to favor large-cap, dividend paying, US based multi-national companies with strong balance sheets. We love businesses with irreplaceable brand names, wide moats, high margins, grow their dividends, and have modest debt. Risk/reward now seems equal between equities and fixed income – the 60/40 portfolio is back! REIT’s, MLP’s and specialized bond/income funds look good as income producers. I believe that our portfolios are well positioned to produce consistently attractive long-term risk adjusted returns while preserving capital. Please do not hesitate to give me a call to discuss the above analysis.

Sincerely,

J. Britt Hughes
Investment Advisor Representative
Bay Colony Advisory Group, Inc.
[email protected]
www.hiasllc.com

Investment advisory services offered by Bay Colony Advisors, a registered investment advisor, doing business as Hughes Investment Advisory Services LLC. No Advice may be rendered by Bay Colony Advisors d/b/a Hughes Investment Advisory Services LLC unless a client service agreement is in place. Bay Colony Advisors does not provide accounting, tax, or legal advice. No part of this newsletter should be considered investment advice. If your financial circumstances have changed, you should contact your investment advisor representative. Principal Office: 86 Baker Avenue Extension, Suite 310, Concord, MA 01742. Phone: 978-369-7200.

Hughes Investment Advisory Services, LLC. No Advice may be rendered by Bay Colony Advisors, d/b/a Hughes Investment Advisory Services, LLC. unless a client service agreement is in place. Bay Colony Advisors does not provide accounting, tax, or legal advice.  Principal Office: 86 Baker Avenue Extens...

11/02/2022

Barron's talked to financial advisors to put together a playbook for a 70-year-old retiree, covering everything from investments to healthcare plans to when it's time to get outside help.

10/04/2022

October 1, 2022

Dear Clients, Investors and Friends

Select Year-to-Date market index performances:

S&P 500 -25%
Nasdaq -33%
Long Term Gov’t Bonds -31%
AGG Bond Index -16%

As you can see from the numbers above, it’s been a tough year for investors.

So where do we go from here and what do I see as a pathway through these difficult times? The answer I believe is to stick mostly with the long-held beliefs that I have formed over many decades of investing and are expressed below and in the summary at the end of this letter.

What changed? Covid-19 and the response from politicians and the Federal Reserve to covid created the conditions that we are experiencing today that are so difficult to navigate. What are these conditions? They are precisely what I have been writing and warning about for 2 years. Too much stimulus in the form of covid relief money from Washington and near zero interest rates for too long thanks to the Fed. We are now experiencing the results with 40-year high inflation and a stagnant economy, two conditions which are putting the Federal Reserve in a difficult position. In normal times, the Fed reduces interest rates when the economy slows but today with inflation at 40-year highs this is not an option until inflation comes down to an acceptable level which the Fed continues to say is 2%. The economy is kind of in this twilight zone, where if it’s not in recession it is probably heading there soon. Depending on what you’re looking at, the economy looks ok or looks in bad shape. It’s one of the more uneven late cycle periods we have ever seen. We have a full-blown recession starting in the housing market. Corporate investment may be in recession. The consumer is hanging in along with the labor market.

Is there a light at the end of this inflation tunnel? Yes! The Fed has finally acted to curb inflation and they’ve acted swiftly, in fact they have been raising rates at the fastest pace on record. Now that the politicians in Washington have turned off the covid money spigot, and the Fed has acted on interest rates, inflation has likely peaked and should be coming down quickly in the months ahead. M2 money supply confirms this as well. Wall Street analysts and all business reporting is understandably focused on inflation and the Feds next moves. I believe that with the S&P 500 now in correction territory down -25% YTD and most other stock indexes lower than that, stocks are poised to rebound sharply once signs of an inflation peak appear.

Last Friday several Fed Governors started to float the idea of easing up on their projected interest rate hikes. Much rests on this question as the global economy is also on edge because of the Feds rapid interest rate hikes which effects the dollar’s value relative to all other world currencies. The dollar is at multi-decade highs versus the Pound, Yen, Euro and Chinese Yuan. A strong dollar is good for the US, but a too strong dollar is potentially very bad for the current fragile world economic balance. We saw evidence of this last week in London with problems in their capital markets.

We currently have the greatest repricing in the history of fixed income in a short period of time. There are opportunities all over the place, and in the 4th quarter it’s going to be a great time to be picking through those opportunities.

Is the economy now in recession? I believe it is or will be before year-end. Will the recession be mild with the desired soft-landing for the economy? That will depend upon how fast inflation comes down, the Fed’s recognition of that and their response. Hopefully the Fed will tamp down their current path to hiking rates to give the economy a chance for a soft-landing otherwise a more severe recession is possible.

Well, enough of these geo-political macro-economic problems which while very pertinent to our investments are also, to a degree, external issues that perhaps we should ignore now that so many investments in the US are priced more attractively. Many of our favorite stocks are now inexpensive such as Amazon and Google for example. Bonds which I have mostly avoided for 5 years are now attractive with 10-year yields at 3.83% versus 1.48% one year ago.

Some important mid-year data points:
- Estimated 2022 Q3 GDP Growth +2.4% - Atlanta Fed Reserve GDP NOW
- Estimated 2022 Q3 CPI Inflation 8.3%
- 2022 S&P 500 Estimated Earnings of $215 – Yardeni Research
- 2023 S&P 500 Estimated Earnings of $235 – Yardeni Research

Now back to the question I posed earlier this year:

What is a “Soft Landing”? In Fed speak a “soft landing” in the business cycle is the process of an economy shifting from growth to slow-growth to potentially flat, as it approaches but avoids a recession. It is caused by Federal Reserve attempts to slow down inflation. Last quarter I said My best guess and base case scenario of the Fed achieving a “soft landing” result is 33% at best and I will maintain that position.

Is the damage done or is there another leg down ahead for stocks and bonds in the 4th quarter? My base case is that most of the damage is done. The Fed will raise rates again but not nearly as much as the consensus now fears. Inflation will remain a problem but has or will peak as supply constraints ease, the war in Ukraine hopefully subsides and the Fed rate hikes take hold. If the above case prevails, I believe that the 4th Quarter, will prove to be positive for stocks and bonds and we can see a snap back rally.

What about the upcoming elections? Polls are predicting a republican win in the House of Representatives and a 50/50 toss up in the Senate. A split government in Washington has always been more positive for the markets than when one party controls the executive and legislative branches. Historically the period after the mid-term elections for a first term president are one of the best performing in the following 6-12 months.

To be clear, the US and World economies are in a very difficult and challenging situation because of the Ukraine War, inflation, and rising interest rates. Given the uncertainty of what the inflation and earnings data will show in the coming weeks our best course remains a cautious investment approach that includes a diversified portfolio of high-quality equities, inflation hedges, cash and now some bond exposure. Primarily, if not solely, in US dollar-based assets. Why? The dollar is hitting all-time high levels against most major currencies and remains the world’s premier currency. US companies are growing faster and have healthier more transparent balance sheets than foreign options and I believe that extreme risks are present with many investments outside the US.

Specifically, given the above concerns where do I find attractive investments and companies today? I’m focusing on equities with well-defined earnings prospects that can pass on higher input costs and prosper during periods of moderating economic growth and high inflation. Areas of focus include pharma, technology, defense, energy, infrastructure, and biotechnology. We are adding bond exposure for the first time in many years. Following the current worldwide economic disruption I fully expect that the US economy and US corporations will be in an even more dominant position relative to their competition. Will Apple, Eli Lilly, Google, Microsoft, Lockheed Martin, John Deere, Tesla etc. be more important to US and Worldwide growth or less? Will these companies be better positioned in their marketplaces? I can say decisively that the answer is yes!

Overall, I continue to favor large-cap, dividend paying, US based multi-national companies with strong balance sheets. We love businesses with irreplaceable brand names, wide moats, high margins, grow their dividends, and have modest debt. Risk/reward now equally favors equities and fixed income equally. I believe that our portfolios are positioned to produce consistently attractive long-term risk adjusted returns while preserving capital. Please do not hesitate to give me a call to discuss the above analysis.

J. Britt Hughes
Investment Advisor Representative
Bay Colony Advisory Group, Inc.
[email protected]
www.hiasllc.com

Investment advisory services offered by Bay Colony Advisors, a registered investment advisor, doing business as Hughes Investment Advisory Services LLC. No Advice may be rendered by Bay Colony Advisors d/b/a Hughes Investment Advisory Services LLC unless a client service agreement is in place. Bay Colony Advisors does not provide accounting, tax, or legal advice. No part of this newsletter should be considered investment advice. If your financial circumstances have changed, you should contact your investment advisor representative. Principal Office: 86 Baker Avenue Extension, Suite 310, Concord, MA 01742. Phone: 978-369-7200.

Hughes Investment Advisory Services, LLC. No Advice may be rendered by Bay Colony Advisors, d/b/a Hughes Investment Advisory Services, LLC. unless a client service agreement is in place. Bay Colony Advisors does not provide accounting, tax, or legal advice.  Principal Office: 86 Baker Avenue Extens...

09/05/2022

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The so-called Inflation Reduction Act has at its heart the most foolish trade-off imaginable.

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American success story!

Prescription medicine prices rose 0.1% in June, and 2.5% in the last year.

07/05/2022

Hughes Investment Advisory Service LLC

July 1, 2022

Dear Clients and Investors,

For Q2 the S&P 500 was down -16%. Bringing its first half loss to -20.6% - it’s worse first half loss since 1970. NASDAQ is down -30% YTD and the AGG, or overall bond market, is now down -10.72% year-to-date. There was essentially no place to hide as every asset class was down significantly apart from oil and other commodities.

So that’s what has happened so far in 2022 but what got us here and what can we expect in the second half of 2022?

I must say that I am not completely surprised at what has happened to the economy and the markets so far this year, but the downturn was sudden and the declines swift. We had the inflation call correct for the last 12 months but it wasn’t until the Ukraine war broke out that everything came together creating the perfect inflation storm. Once the Fed realized their mistake of keeping rates too low for too long it was essentially too late to recover from this unforced error without negative consequences. Now we are faced with high inflation and low or negative growth. I believe that the US is now in recession or will be soon which will be confirmed when the second quarter GDP is tabulated sometime in the weeks ahead.

As for the second half there are at least two certainties: the Fed will be raising rates to fight inflation and company profits are going to decelerate. We can also expect a softer labor market, lower confidence and drawn-down savings weighing on consumer spending. Add to this a likely decline in the housing market, lower capital expenditures by businesses, stubbornly high inflation, higher interest rates and a recession is probable either now or in the second half of this year.

Will it be a serious downturn or a milder one? Unlike in 2008/09 the banks and financial system are stronger. Unlike in 2020 there is no pandemic. This recession should be milder. If we strip out the 2020 pandemic recession the case could be made that the economy is due for it’s first slowdown since the great recession in 2008/09. Recessions are not unusual and are a necessary part of free market economies.

Taken together, this raises the question of whether the FED is raising rates just as the economy is rolling over and entering a recession? Historically at times like this the FED would be lowering rates to boost the economy but with inflation at 40-year highs they do not have that option today, however, an economic contraction should spur the FED to slow the expected pace of interest rate increases, putting less downward pressure on the stock market and less upward pressure on bond yields, which move inversely to prices.

Some key additional mid-year 2022 data points:
- Estimated 2022 Q2 GDP growth -2.1% (Atlanta Fed Reserve GDP NOW)
- Estimated 2022 Q2CPI Inflation +8.3%
- 2022 S&P 500 Estimated Earnings of $229 – Yardeni Research Inc.

Now back to the question I posed 3 months ago:

“Soft Landing” What is a “Soft Landing”? In Fed speak a “soft landing” in the business cycle is the process of an economy shifting from growth to slow-growth to potentially flat, as it approaches but avoids a recession. It is caused by Federal Reserve attempts to slow down inflation. Last quarter I said My best guess and base case scenario of the Fed achieving a “soft landing” result is 50/50 at best. This Quarter I’m revising that to a 33% chance of achieving the desired “soft landing” for the economy.

What does this mean for our investment approach as we move into the second half of 2022? We’ve taken some profits in utilities and staples. Gold and commodities have been a disappointment. We’re increasing bond exposure for the first time in many years because of higher yields. We’re maintaining and buying solid equities as prices have corrected lower. We’re correcting mistakes and taking advantage of buying opportunities as they present while upgrading the companies we own.

Is the damage done or is there another leg down ahead for stocks and bonds in the second half? My base case is that most of the damage is done. The Fed will continue raising rates but not nearly as much as the consensus now fears. Inflation will remain a problem but has or will peak as supply constraints ease and the war in Ukraine subsides. If the above case prevails, I believe that the second half, mostly in Q4, will prove to be positive for stocks and bonds and we can see a snap back rally that will bring the year end equity return close to breakeven or at a minimum reduce the current year loss significantly.

To be clear, the US and World economies are in a very difficult and challenging situation because of the Ukraine War, inflation and rising interest rates and there are many factors driving trading right now and making for a lot of uneven performances for stocks so far this year. Given the uncertainty of what the inflation and earnings data will show in the coming weeks our best course remains a cautious investment approach that includes a diversified portfolio of high-quality equities, inflation hedges, cash and now some bond exposure. Primarily, if not solely, in US dollar-based assets. Why? The dollar is hitting all-time high levels against most major currencies and remains the world’s premier currency. US companies are growing faster and have healthier more transparent balance sheets than foreign options and I believe that extreme risks are present with many investments outside the US.

Specifically, given the above concerns where do I find attractive investments and companies today? I’m focusing on equities with well-defined earnings prospects that can pass on higher input costs and prosper during periods of moderating economic growth and high inflation. Areas of focus include pharma, technology, defense, energy, infrastructure, and biotechnology. The Utility and Consumer Staples sectors have done very well of late, and we have taken profits. We are adding bond exposure for the first time in many years.

Overall, I continue to favor large-cap, dividend paying, US based multi-national companies with strong balance sheets. We love businesses with irreplaceable brand names, wide moats, high margins, grow their dividends, and have modest debt. Risk/reward now equally favors equities and fixed income. I believe that our portfolios are positioned to produce consistently attractive long-term risk adjusted returns while preserving capital. Please do not hesitate to give me a call to discuss the above analysis.

Sincerely,

J. Britt Hughes
Investment Advisor Representative
Bay Colony Advisory Group, Inc.
[email protected]
www.hiasllc.com

Investment advisory services offered by Bay Colony Advisors, a registered investment advisor, doing business as Hughes Investment Advisory Services LLC. No Advice may be rendered by Bay Colony Advisors d/b/a Hughes Investment Advisory Services LLC unless a client service agreement is in place. Bay Colony Advisors does not provide accounting, tax, or legal advice. No part of this newsletter should be considered investment advice. If your financial circumstances have changed, you should contact your investment advisor representative. Principal Office: 86 Baker Avenue Extension, Suite 310, Concord, MA 01742. Phone: 978-369-7200.

422 Housatonic Ave. Stratford, Ct 06615 203-209-4797

Hughes Investment Advisory Services, LLC. No Advice may be rendered by Bay Colony Advisors, d/b/a Hughes Investment Advisory Services, LLC. unless a client service agreement is in place. Bay Colony Advisors does not provide accounting, tax, or legal advice.  Principal Office: 86 Baker Avenue Extens...

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