My Portfolio Guide, LLC

06/16/2026

Walking past the old Pacific Coast Stock Exchange in SF today. For over a century, this area was known as the "Wall Street of the West".
The physical floor went digital and closed back in 2002, but the West Coast speculative appetite hasn't gone anywhere.

Today, SpaceX ($SPCX) just surged past Amazon to become the 5th largest company in the world, topping a $2.7 trillion market cap within days of its IPO.

The wild part? While Amazon cleared a $78B profit last year, many "investors" pile into $SPCX without realizing that between massive Starship R&D and the xAI integration, the company actually lost $4.9 billion.

Another reminder that market structures change, but hype cycles and massive valuation-to-revenue disconnects remain a constant.

06/15/2026

In my hometown for an Alternative Investments conference and admittedly not a fan of thinking about earthquakes.

Looking out the hotel window now so the irony of posting this from the 42nd floor is not lost on me!

06/13/2026

Week #1 in the books!

We’re excited to welcome our 2026 Summer Wealth Management Interns, Yosi from UC Irvine and Hudson from University of Utah.

Throughout the summer they’ll gain hands on experience in financial planning, investment management, client service, business development, and the day to day operations of an independent fiduciary advisory firm.

Welcome aboard Yosi and Hudson!

06/12/2026

🚀 The biggest IPO in stock market history is finally here.
SpaceX is expected to debut at roughly a $1.77 trillion valuation, making it one of the most valuable companies on Earth from day one.

Poll question:

Where do you think $SPCX closes today?

🔘 Below IPO Price
🔘 Up 0%-10%
🔘 Up 10%-25%
🔘 Up 25%+

And an even better question...

Where do you think it trades one year from now?

Drop your prediction in the comments along with your 1-year target price.
We'll revisit this post in June 2027.
The person who comes closest gets to choose a charity, and My Portfolio Guide will make a $50 donation in their name.
Remember: A great company and a great investment aren't always the same thing.

Let the predictions begin. 🚀

06/10/2026

The SpaceX IPO isn't really a bet on rockets.

It's a bet that the future arrives exactly as investors imagine.

At a $1.77 trillion valuation, investors are paying roughly $95 for every $1 of current annual revenue.
Think about that.

Imagine buying a business (or rental property) that generates $100,000 per year and paying $9.5 million for it...
You wouldn't be buying today's cash flow.
You'd be buying a vision of what it might become.

Sometimes that's how fortunes are made and sometimes that's how bubbles are born.

SpaceX may ultimately become one of the greatest companies ever built....but investors should remember there's a difference between a great company and a great investment.

$SPCX

06/08/2026

What a treat swinging the sticks with this father son duo. 🏌️‍♂️⛳️

06/06/2026

Left the gym this morning and my GPS automatically pulled up the office.

I didn’t tell it where I was going.

Even though it’s Saturday, it knows my routine.

Technology is getting scary good!

Success isn’t usually built on big moments. It’s built on boring consistency repeated over and over again.

06/04/2026

We recently wrote about the SpaceX IPO over at Dear Mr. Market, and the timing of this table from Truist couldn't be more perfect.

This is what happens to high-profile IPOs after the excitement fades.

Facebook: -31% in the first year. Max drawdown of -54%.
Uber: -21% in year one. Max drawdown of -68%.
Robinhood: -74% in year one. Max drawdown of -90%.
Rivian: -67% in year one. Max drawdown of -88%.

The median 12-month return across all 30 IPOs in this study? -9%. The average max drawdown? -55%.

Only 43% of these stocks were positive at the 12-month mark.

These aren't obscure companies. These are household names that everyone wanted a piece of on Day One.

SpaceX will be the most hyped IPO in history. The demand will be real. The story will be compelling. And the temptation to chase it will be enormous.
But the data has a way of cutting through the noise.
We're not saying don't ever own it. We're saying don't be the person who buys it on Day One because you couldn't wait.

Full article at www.dearmrmarket.com

05/30/2026

🚀 SpaceX is finally going public.

It's being called the largest and most anticipated IPO in stock market history, with a valuation approaching $2 trillion. For many investors, the temptation will be simple: buy first, ask questions later.

We're taking a different approach.

There's no question SpaceX is an incredible company. It dominates space launches, operates the world's largest satellite network through Starlink, and sits at the center of several long-term growth themes. But great companies don't always make great investments at every price.
History is littered with examples of investors who paid too much for exciting stories.
In this Dear Mr. Market article, we break down:

• The valuation and what investors are actually paying for
• The unusual insider lockup structure
• Why the first few months after an IPO can be especially volatile
• The difference between a great company and a great investment
• Whether we're buyers, sellers, or waiting patiently

Our edge has never been being first.
It's been being disciplined.

Read the full article here: https://dearmrmarket.com/2026/05/30/spacex-is-going-public-heres-why-were-not-chasing-it-on-day-one/

$SPCX

A $2 trillion valuation. The most anticipated IPO ever. Millions of investors ready to pile in. But history teaches an important lesson: great companies don’t always make great investments at…

05/22/2026

One of the most dangerous things in investing is confusing intelligence, charisma, or media attention with disciplined portfolio management.

Cathie Wood became the face of “disruptive innovation” during the zero-rate, stimulus-fueled frenzy of 2020. Investors piled into $ARKK believing they had found the next investing genius. Financial media amplified it. Retail investors chased it. Wall Street marketed it.

Fast forward five years:
The boring, low-cost S&P 500 dramatically outperformed ARKK while charging almost no fees. Meanwhile, many ARKK investors suffered massive drawdowns, huge volatility, and significant opportunity cost.
That doesn’t mean Cathie Wood is unintelligent. In fact, many of her long-term themes around AI, genomics, robotics, and innovation may ultimately prove directionally correct.

But being “right” on a theme is very different than making money for clients.
Timing matters.
Valuation matters.
Risk management matters.
Position sizing matters.
Diversification matters.

The market has a way of humbling both investors and gurus...especially when narratives become crowded and emotion replaces discipline.

We’ve said this many times over the years:
You do not need to swing for the fences to build substantial wealth.
Sometimes the “boring” approach of diversification, discipline, tactical allocation, and controlling costs quietly wins while the headlines chase the next superstar manager.

"Stay disciplined to stay positive."
-MPG