09/29/2026
30 years ago, this would’ve been a pink-sheet stock with a 1-800 number, a fax machine, and a pitch from your cousin's broker in a boiler room.
Today, it's potentially a $2T+ company.
Anthropic is preparing to go public, and the growth story is extraordinary. The numbers behind it are...a little harder to digest:
$4.6B in 2025 revenue... up roughly 12x.
$8.1B operating loss.
Nearly $42B net loss.
$518B in future cloud/compute/infrastructure commitments.
We're excited about the long-term growth potential of Anthropic and AI generally. But at these numbers, the IPO also raises some serious questions.
Of 1,494 IPOs studied from 1995–2025, the median first-year return was -4.7%, with a median maximum drawdown of -48%.
SpaceX (SPCX) provides a pretty good recent reminder. It initially surged after going public, only to later trade below its $135 IPO price.
Great company ≠ great IPO price.
Anthropic's exact listing date hasn't been announced yet. We'll be watching.