05/05/2026
The 4% withdrawal rule has guided retirement planning for 30 years. The idea: withdraw 4% of your savings in year one, adjust for inflation annually, and your money should last 30 years.
It's a useful starting point. But it has real limits that matter more now than they did in the 1990s when the rule was developed:
- Today's retirees often need portfolios to last 35+ years
- Sequence-of-returns risk — poor market performance in the first few retirement years can permanently reduce a portfolio's staying power even if long-term averages look fine
- Some researchers now suggest 3.3% as a more conservative baseline
The honest answer: there is no universal safe withdrawal rate. The right number depends on your asset mix, Social Security timing, healthcare costs, legacy goals, and how flexible your spending can be in down years.
A fixed rule applied to a dynamic life is not a plan.
When did you last stress-test your retirement income strategy?