10/16/2026
The third quarter of 2026 was particularly eventful for investors. Tech stocks experienced a pullback in July, followed by a strong rebound in August. The Federal Reserve voted to raise interest rates for the first time since July 2023 because of rising oil prices and inflation still higher than their target.
Looking ahead, November's midterm elections may introduce additional uncertainty. However according to First Trust Portfolios, the average 11-month return, following election month, on the S&P 500 Index following a midterm election has been 17.0% since 1950. As a matter of fact, every 11-month period following a midterm election since 1950 has been positive, regardless of which party wins. Early data is showing that the Republicans are likely to hold the Senate but give up the House. In that scenario, a Republican President with a spilt Congress, markets on average return 17.6% annually, according to data from 1949-2025. Markets like certainty and gridlock in Washington is certainty. When opposing parties control different legislative bodies, it is very difficult to pass new laws. Investors know that drastic policy moves are very unlikely to occur.
We have been fielding a lot of calls lately from clients who are uneasy about the headlines in the news and wondering if the market is the best place for their money right now. Since interest rates are slightly higher, some are even asking if money markets or CD’s are a better temporary alternative to equity exposure. I would caution that thought process. As we look back in history, there has always been a reason not to invest. War, plague, recession, etc. Mutual fund manager Peter Lynch once said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than in the corrections themselves.” Our portfolios are positioned well and hold protection buffers to handle market downturns the best way they can.
Markets will always experience periods of uncertainty, but having a disciplined investment strategy can help you remain confident and focused on what matters most—your financial future.
