Executive Wealth Management of Raymond James

01/06/2026

Minutiae minute!

CNBC today, in their news brief, stated that six years ago, there was a deadly attack at the US Capitol, and Democrats are marking the day by holding non-formal hearings. Interesting, if I recall correctly, there was only one death, which was the death of a "5'02" unarmed woman who a Capitol police officer shot.

I worked as a cop for 7 years, and back then, trespassing was a misdemeanor and not a capital offense!

Shame on CNBC and shame on the Dems!

11/21/2025

Below Commentary published Tuesday, November 18th!

November Commentary-Sell Signal Alert

Monday's market action set in motion a Dow Jones Industrial Average weekly chart "swing-high". This is the structure needed for an intermediate-term sell signal. This action also put all three of my indicators "in gear" to the downside, triggering an intermediate-term sell signal.

From a seasonal standpoint, this is unusual but probably needed given the level of froth in the market.

Speaking of froth, as I have stated on many occasions, Raymond James does not deal in Bitcoin, and I still struggle to see its utility. That said, I do peek in from time to time from a technical standpoint. Currently, the long-term (monthly) momentum indicator is transitioning from positive to negative. It also completed a monthly chart swing high in September. This could mean more downside pressure and perhaps some spill-over into the equity markets.

For me, when I get a sell signal, I attempt to reach my target cash position, then sit and watch.

NVIDIA reports earnings after the market close on Wednesday, which could undoubtedly be a market-moving event.

Interesting days indeed!

11/10/2025

November Market Commentary: Band on the Run!!

Today, on November 10, 1775, in Tun Tavern in Philadelphia, the United Marine Corps was born. Our PMI (primary marksmanship instructor) once quipped, "The Marine Corps was born in a bar, and I get back every chance I get." I hate to admit it, as I am proud to have served in the Marines, but knowing what I know now, I would not serve given the corruption of our government. My opinion only, given the fact that I earned the right to voice it!

Last week, while my family and I took a trip to Nashville to catch my 23-year-old daughter's favorite Beatle (and still the cutest according to her), Sir Paul McCartney, in concert, the buffoonery with the 535 members of Congress continued. This shameful shutdown, along with more cries of an AI bubble, roiled the market during my absence. This seems to continue the streak of increased market volatility on the rare occasion that I take time off!

Although the pullback last week felt very painful in my strategy, upon arriving at my office this morning, I was pleased to see that my technical signal was still showing a buy!

With today's positive start to the week, we have the makings of a weekly chart "swing low" on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which would provide the structure needed for a fresh intermediate-term buy signal.

This bull market, just like Sir Paul, continues to perform exceptionally well, given its age!

Cheers,

11/10/2025

Happy 250th Birthday, my United States Marine Corps.

Back in 1775, my Marine Corps came alive.

First, there came the color of blue, just to show that we were true.

Then there came the color of gold, just to show that
We were bold

Then there came the color of red, to show the blood we shed!

Semper Fi

11/10/2025

Happy 250th Birthday, to the United States Marine Corps.

Back in 1775, my Marine Corps came alive.
First, there came the color of blue, just to show that we were true.
Then there came the color of gold, just to show that we were bold
Then there came the color of red, just to show the blood we shed!

Smper Fi

08/26/2025

Estate planning is just as important for those without heirs, though choosing your medical and financial surrogates may need extra attention.

raymondjames.com

08/22/2025

[Below is my market commentary that I write and share with my Private Wealth clients each month. This one was released this past Monday!]

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the stock market fares better under Democrats, and the U.S. dollar holds up under Republicans. Consider this: The Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new all-time high this past Friday, and the dollar continues its dizzying slide. The Almanac goes on to say that since 1913, most post-presidential election years, Americans have had to "pay the piper" with bear markets, wars, and recessions.

Entering this year, I expected at least a recession/bear market history to continue, as my technical and fundamental indicators told me this market was a dead man walking! I have always been under the belief that once the gears of pain (bear market) start churning, there is no stopping them, by anyone, especially the President!

Let's talk about the Fed for a moment. For those long-time readers of my commentaries, you know that I believe the Fed is an abomination that should be abolished. It was created for banks, by banks, to do the bidding of banks. This is a fact, look it up! Furthermore, after the 2008-2009 financial crisis, Congress gave the Fed the authority to pay banks interest to park their reserves at the Fed. You heard me correctly; the Fed is still paying banks billions of dollars to park their cash rather than loan it out. Bankers are like the bunnies that visit my backyard every evening, in that they are cute to look at but scare off quickly! So, as they park money, the Fed loses money. Nice!

Now the Fed tells us they are waiting to see what effect tariffs have on inflation. Bond manager Jeff Gundlach stated on CNBC on August 4th that "tariffs don't cause inflation, increased money supply (M-2) does" (See attached chart/Inflation is the red line). He went on to say that tariffs don't increase the money supply. This is what I wrote back in the spring! I also know that every significant financial debacle in my 30 years in the business can be traced back to the Fed. All that said, I don't like the personal attacks on Jay Powell by President Trump.

My proprietary technical model continues to be in gear to the upside. And with the aforementioned new Dow Jones all-time high, the four-year cycle top opportunity from this winter has been laid to rest for the time being. Furthermore, my technical indicators are telling me there could be much more "dry powder" for additional gains. As I have mentioned in the past, I don't tie myself to dogma, but only to making as much money as I can ethically and legally for my clients. Therefore, as I have always stated, when the facts change, my opinion changes. With this in mind, I remain fully invested.

Cheers,

amazonaws.com

07/25/2025

The Profit meets the Maestro!

The Raymond James 2025 Summer Development Conference was outstanding as always. I look forward to sharing what I learned in the days to come.
Shout out to The Profit, Marcus Lemonis, who provided an incredible message in our morning session today!

09/16/2024

(Below is my Market commentary from last week, which I again call a short-term bottom!)

Tis The Season!
According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, "portfolio managers back after Labor Day tend to clean house in September." They say that the day after Labor Day (what I call Tuesday), the Dow Jones was down 11 of the last 15 years. I can confidently report that the score is now 12 out of the previous 16 years. Statistically speaking, this is pretty darn significant. October, historically, is just as poor typically as September; however, October is known as the "Bear Killer" as it ends what is generally the worst six months of the year for the market. In Presidential election years since 1950, October ranks as the worst month, down an average of 1%.

So, returning from the Labor Day weekend last week, I got a "short-term" sell signal in my proprietary technical analysis program. As most of you know, I don't write about it unless it triggers an "intermediate-term" sell signal, which, as of today, it has not. However, with today's (9/11) market action taking the Dow Jones below last week's low, which I hoped would not happen, I felt the need to mention it. At this time, I am looking at the 600-plus point drop today as a possible final push down into the current short-term sell signal. For this to prove the case, I need the "intermediate-term" buy signal (which is hanging on by a thread) to hold up. If it does, and I suspect it will, the table should be set for some short-term bottom.

Good news, right? I have been open about my belief that the market could make a top in late 2024 or early 2025. I now think there is better than a 50-50 chance that we have seen a top for 2024. Why? The Nasdaq 100 index made a lower high in August before rolling back over to the downside. Lower highs are one of the signs that a stock or index is breaking down! This is after a wave of negative sentiment on the Nasdaq 100 in early August, a buy signal. The last time sentiment got that low on the Nasdaq 100 and the ensuing rally did not carry the index back above the previous high was in December 2021. (Please see the attached chart courtesy of stockcharts.com). If the rally I wrote about above does not correct this downtrend, I would be inclined to lighten up on equities.

Changing gears, I know I will be asked over the coming days if I watched the Presidential debate last night. I did not. When I pay my car and homeowners insurance, buy groceries, etc., I know all I need to know. I tell my children to never try to defend the indefensible. As a man who stopped counting after the fourth time I raised my right hand to swear to uphold the Constitution, I have earned the right to say that, as a country, we would be much better off not attempting to defend the indefensible!

God Bless!

amazonaws.com

07/26/2024

July Market Commentary-Talking Politics! (Published 7/24/24)

In my April 10th, 2024, market commentary, I wrote the following:

"But with my intermediate-term "buy" signal to last as long as it has, my model's next "sell" signal would be considered a countertrend move, not an opportunity sell risk." As I write today, nothing has changed that opinion. With April statistically being the best-performing month of the year since 1950 for the stock market, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the rally on my next buy signal will be all-important. That said, my expectations for May through the summer are for the markets to "Flop and Chop."

We now know that the above exam answers were correct. I did, in fact, get an " intermediate" sell signal, which quickly reverted back to a "buy," which is where it remains as I write today. On April 10th, the Dow Jones closed at 38,461. As I write today, with the market down over 300 points, the Dow is still holding just above 40,000, or up approximately 4%. That, folks, is my definition of "Flop and Chop."

So, while my aforementioned technical model is still showing an intermediate-term "buy," the short-term (which I don't write about) is a "sell," hence the increased volatility. If my hunch is correct, this pullback should flush out enough froth to set the table for the next move higher. Speaking of froth, in reviewing the stock charts over the past couple of decades, I've noticed that even in bull markets, investors will get two to three compelling "buy" opportunities during the year. This current pullback is opportunity number two by my pencil for 2024.

Politics! Has anything happened in the world of politics since my last commentary? Clearly, I jest! My standard thoughts are to vote with your ballot, not your portfolio. Having been in attendance at the Raymond James Summer Development Conference last week, I sat in on no less than three presentations that showed graphical proof that looking at every outcome possible over the years yielded very little difference in market performance. Furthermore, I have never belonged to any political party as I find both choices unsatisfactory, if for different reasons. Former President Harry Truman, I think, summed it up best when he stated, " There is only one way for a politician to come into office poor and leave rich." Enough said!

With VP Harris running for the office of president, I still consider her an incumbent running for re-election. Since 1964, the stock market has been positive 100% of the time by an average of 11% in the second half of an election year. Will history repeat itself? Only time will tell.

Finally, I will say that not all is rosy. I believe the economy is much weaker than we are being led to believe. Inflation and debt are having a tremendous impact on most Americans, which causes me to believe 2025 should be a very difficult year for the economy and, of course, the markets.

06/26/2024

Occasionally, our former chief market strategist would ask: "Is the stock market going up or is the measuring stick coming down?" to highlight the corrosive attributes of inflation on the dollar and purchasing power. After giving much thought to his musings, I have concluded both outcomes could be accurate.

As the broad markets continue to make new all-time highs after all-time highs, I am consistently hearing how the higher cost of everything from beef and eggs to auto insurance and rent is skyrocketing in price. These higher prices hurt low-income families the hardest; McDonald's has even had to admit that its customers are walking away from its offerings. These folks on the low-income scale are stuck in a spin cycle: When the Fed claims inflation is too low, they take rates to zero and print more money (QE). This causes most asset prices to go up! Think real estate, stocks, bonds, collectibles, etc. Then, when coupled with bad fiscal policy (Recovery Act, Inflation Reduction Act), it leads to inflation, which leads to higher interest rates now, which makes buying a car or a home a traumatic experience. This led former Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan to say that too much fiscal spending would cause rates to stay higher for longer and that Fed Chair Jay Powell should ask the administration to slow the spending in the Inflation Reduction Act. (I kept waiting for the punch line because I seriously thought he was joking).

Because of this out-of-control spending, I think that even with markets making all-time highs, there is little love for the stock market. As reported by Bloomberg News on June 13th, the US money market funds reached its all-time high of $6.12 trillion. This doesn't surprise me, as I am not getting calls from clients clamoring for more stock exposure, which is usually the case at or near market tops. Money markets paying 5.5% with very low risk are comforting to cash-rich investors! The bottom line is that when talking with investors who are paying attention to what's happening in DC, they are very uneasy with the direction of this country. I even heard of investors converting their IRAs to gold! Seriously!
According to Longtermtrends, in February 1980, it took 1.36 oz. of gold to buy one share of the Dow Jones. As of March 2024, it took 17.65 oz. of gold. I am pretty sure I could repeat this exercise with stocks versus real estate, art, etc. The bottom line is this: there have always been crazy things happening in this country. Is it now crazier? Maybe, maybe not! After all, one man's crazy is another man's nirvana! I do know that equities, through it all thus far, have proven to be a good choice for compounding capital and staying ahead of inflation.

In the meantime, my proprietary technical model flipped back to an intermediate-term "buy signal" after spending most of June as a hold.

Meanwhile, the stock market is up, and the measuring stick continues down!

12/04/2023

December Market Commentary-"If Santa Claus should fail to call, Bears may come to Broad and Wall"

In my November 2nd market commentary titled "Out of the Wilderness", I wrote that the broad markets hit official correction territory in October, down 10%. I wrote that since 1972, in the month following the official correction threshold being hit, the following month was up, on average, 8%. For November, the S&P500 was up 8.3%.

I ended November's missive with the following:

"Is everything perfect in the market or the world, for that matter? No, it is not and never will be, as we are imperfect creatures. But if the Dow can recapture and hold its 150-day moving average, which currently sits at 34,015, the August 1 Dow Jones high of 35,679 could also be bettered!"

All of this occurred, and yesterday's 500 plus "Dow Wow" sent the benchmark through that 35,679 mark. (I'm not bragging; these are just the facts).

So, where do we go from here? In November, I did mention getting short-term, intermediate-term, and seasonal "buy signals" in my proprietary technical analysis model. Those buy signals are still a buy. However, the markets in the near term are technically "overbought", so one would think a brief pause would be in order. However, the rub is this: December, historically speaking, has been the third-best performance month for Dow Jones Industrials since 1950. Also, given the narrow breadth of the market returns for most of this year (Think Magnificent Seven), diversified portfolios have been left in the dust. So, with year-end bearing down, I think any market dip (tax loss selling) could quickly see buyers step in.

In closing, I want to address the Santa Claus rally, which I am asked about yearly. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, nearly every year, a respectable market rally within the last five days of the year and the first two in January. And if it does not occur, it concludes, "If Santa Claus should fail to call, Bears may come to Broad and Wall".

Merry Christmas!