06/25/2026
It’s easy to assume that war and geopolitical conflict would lead to poor market returns.
It feels logical. Uncertainty rises. Headlines get worse. Investor sentiment often weakens.
But historically, the relationship hasn’t been so straightforward.
Looking at past geopolitical events, the market’s median 1-year return has been close to 10%, roughly in line with long-term averages. In other words, markets have often continued to behave in line with historical norms, even during periods of elevated uncertainty.
This doesn’t mean risk disappears or outcomes are guaranteed. It simply highlights how markets have responded in prior environments.
Moments like these can create a gap between how things feel and how markets actually behave.
That tension is worth paying attention to.