PortSalus Wealth Management

05/13/2023

A credit crunch appears to be on it's way that could exacerbate the banking issues into a larger crisis but will it crush stocks? Only time will tell.

Market Update Video for 5/13/2023

03/11/2023

Is the January Rally over?

01/03/2023

The stock market ended 2022 down about 20%, the biggest year loss since 2008. Not much for positive signs as downside volume continues to be greater than upside volume. Pouring salt in the stock market wounds is the fact that the aggregate bond market, which usually provides a buoy for declining stocks, declined about 14% for the year, exacerbating the pain and leaving few places to hide besides cash. No doubt a rough year for fully invested strategies. My Tactical strategies did fantastic in comparison as we spent most of the year in cash. The challenge now is when to start getting back in which for now is a waiting game.

Given the headwinds we face in terms of recession apparently right around the corner, the only hope for the stock market seems to be a recession that causes the Fed to pivot and lower interest rates again however with persistently high inflation, it seems it might be a while until that happens. Meanwhile what kind of economic damage and further market declines could we see before the so-called Fed pivot occurs? I’m not holding my breath, that’s for sure.

The housing market is poised for large declines as we will soon enter the real estate selling season faced with significantly higher borrowing costs that are likely to put a damper on buying and thus forcing sellers to drop prices.

Click here to watch my latest Market Update video: https://www.loom.com/share/5b9759ca89504389861eb05e27573690

Feel free to send these videos to any family, friends, or other people you know that might find this helpful in navigating the current environment.

Once you’ve viewed the videos, if you have any questions feel free to reach out either by email, phone, or you can schedule a call by using the link below or at the end of the video.

10/15/2022

The stock market ended the week by retesting recent lows. Higher than expected inflation numbers came out on Thursday pushing the stock market down significantly as expected and breaking much below the June lows on an intra-day basis. The surprise was the market rallied most of the day like nobody’s business closing much higher for the day only to close lower the next day and settle right back at those recent lows. So where do we go from here?

In analyzing the current market environment, I attempt to answer the question of whether Technical Analysis is VooDoo or just something that is misunderstood by those not versed in the art form that can actual give us indication of what is likely to happen. This is quite different from seeing the future mind you, but can Technical Analysis give us signals or indications that help with decision making is the question.

On inflation, I forgot to mention in the video that Social Security announced the cost-of-living adjustment will be 8.7% which is a huge number for those currently receiving. And it is not just this one number but the fact that future increases are based on this higher number. Of course Social Security might find ways to claw it back over time by playing games with the inflation indices it uses but for now it is good for retirees to help offset the high inflation we’ve been experiencing.

Click here to watch my latest Market Update video: https://www.loom.com/share/e77efc870eaf48ffb44582a3a7b487a2

Remember you can watch this video at faster than 1x speed by changing the settings.

Feel free to send these videos to any family, friends, or other people you know that might find this helpful in navigating the current environment.

Once you’ve viewed the videos, if you have any questions feel free to reach out either by email, phone, or you can schedule a call by using the link below or at the end of the video.

Is Technical Analysis just Voodoo? Let's examine.

09/24/2022

At my last review, it was about 3 weeks after the mid-august peak. the stock market had rallied about one week but then declined from there right back to the mid-June lows technically breaking through the June 16th closing low on an intra-day basis but ultimately closing slightly above on Friday in a late day rally. Prior to this level in mid-June, the last time the stock market was at that level was about December 2020. The bond market rally ending around early August and has generally declined from there fairly consistently to a point we haven’t seen since about December 2018.

I think it is fairly clear at this point that something significant is occurring. Both stock and bond markets are down significantly while the fed is continuing to raise rates aggressively in order to tame incredibly persistent inflation, the likes we haven’t really seen since the 1970’s. There are other economic signs that have been suggesting recession is around the corner but the consensus is that continued Fed Action will likely push us into official recession although many believe we are unofficially already in a recession. In today’s video, we’ll take a closer look at some of these factors and I’ll do an update on my Tactical portfolio in the second half of the video. Remember you can watch this video at faster than 1x speed by changing the settings.

Click here to watch my latest Market Update video: https://www.loom.com/share/42fead0a5ea3482bb4a9bf254216e0eb

Feel free to send these videos to any family, friends, or other people you know that might find this helpful in navigating the current environment.

Once you’ve viewed the videos, if you have any questions feel free to reach out either by email, phone, or you can schedule a call by using the link below or at the end of the video.

08/09/2022

Fresh Market Update Video as we are at key resistance levels and only a couple of categories have broken out above them so all eyes are on this week looking for more clear direction.

Fresh Market Update Video 8/8/2022: We are at key resistance levels and only a couple of categories have broken out above them so all eyes are on this week l...

08/09/2022

The topic of recession has come up a lot lately especially with the recent news that 2nd quarter GDP came in negative stringing together 2 quarters of negative GDP which is a common definition of recession. We’ve experienced high inflation, a Fed that is trying to fight it by raising rates rapidly and a stock market that has declined for the first half of 2022. The question I get a lot lately is what I think the stock market will do if we go into recession (or are already in it) so I set out to take a closer look and found the results to be a bit surprising.

The topic of recession has come up a lot lately especially with the recent news that 2nd quarter (2022) GDP came in negative stringing together 2 quarters of...

07/30/2022

Sustainable Market Rally or Bear Market Trap? Check out my latest Market and Tactical Portfolio Update!

https://www.loom.com/share/5256182c7e414560a6fe88b2e3384cea?inf_contact_key=41918f5691c38f321947faf3bffafaf0

08/04/2020

Don’t let TAXES clobber your Retirement Accounts! REDUCE your TAXES in Retirement!

Join me for a free educational webinar to better understand how taxes work in retirement and how they will impact your retirement plan!

See the list below for the available dates and corresponding link to register for the webinar:

Thursday 8/6/2020 @ 3:00 pm PDT/6:00 pm EDT: https://tempus-jeremy.webinarninja.com/live-webinars/424904/register

Tuesday 8/11/2020 @ 11:00 am PDT/2:00 pm EDT: https://tempus-jeremy.webinarninja.com/live-webinars/435961/register

Be sure to join me for this informative webinar and I hope to see you there!

A Live Webinar starting at Aug 11, 2020 @ 11:00 am PDT hosted by Jeremy E. Portnoff, MSFS, CFP®, CIMA®.

07/26/2020

Like most people approaching retirement, you’ve been saving for a long time in your retirement account and when you look at your retirement account statement, you feel proud of what you accomplished. Perhaps you believe you have saved enough for retirement. Well, there is one critical missing item from that retirement account statement, do you know what that is?

Taxes!

For many years you’ve been saving your money into retirement accounts because you were told your taxes will be lower in retirement and by contributing, you got a tax deduction for those contributions at the time and it sounded great so you did it. Well like anything you put off until later, you have to deal with it eventually and taxes are no exception because when you start taking money out of those retirement accounts, you have to pay the tax eventually. The problem is that you don’t know what your tax rate will be.

Taxes are a major factor that will impact your retirement and the government can change the rules on you without your consent at any time. They told you that taxes would be less in retirement but now with the massive government debt and deficits, can we really believe that taxes will actually be less in retirement? How is this debt going to get paid back? With over $30 Trillion in total retirement assets, that seems to be low hanging fruit for congress to grab the tax they need to pay back this massive government credit card.

Unfortunately, the idea that taxes are lower in retirement may end up being a myth for many people and you might get a very rude awakening when Uncle Sam comes knocking on your door for his cut of your retirement account. We are living in a historic high debt environment, but we are also historically in a very low tax environment. The government is going to have to raise taxes in the future. What does that mean for your retirement plans? Are you prepared?

Being aware of tax considerations for your retirement income plan and utilizing a tax-efficient income withdrawal strategy could keep thousands of dollars in your pockets instead of Uncle Sam’s. It is my job to help people like you understand the options available to them in order to meet their retirement goals, so I’m inviting you to join me for an educational webinar to help you better understand how taxes work in retirement and how they will impact your retirement plan.

Attending this webinar you’ll learn about:
• The Basics of Taxation including Marginal vs. Effective Marginal Rates
• Interactions Between Income Types
• Unexpected Impacts of Taxes in Retirement
• Taxation of Social Security
• How the “Real” Tax System works
• What a Tax Map is and how it can help you plan
• Tools and Strategies to Reduce Lifetime Taxes

The goal of this seminar is to clear up confusion around how taxes in retirement work and make it as simple as possible. I want to help you see your retirement income blind spots and show you with clarity the opportunities available to optimize your retirement income withdrawal strategy.

See the list below for the available dates and corresponding link to register for the webinar:

Tuesday 8/11/2020 @ 11:00 am PDT/2:00 pm EDT: https://tempus-jeremy.webinarninja.com/live-webinars/435961/register

Once registered, you will receive automated reminder emails with the information to need to join the webinar.

Be sure to join me for this informative webinar and I hope to see you there!