06/11/2026
6-11-2026
Iran, Derek on the road, and Rockets, Oh My! (SpaceX)
In my last note from the beginning of April 2026, I mentioned that the administration in D.C. was saying Iran wants an end to the war, they are negotiating with us, and it was said that the war could end in a couple of weeks. I summarized that there were some inconclusive statements/actions and that I felt that the end was not really close. Here we are about 2 1/2 months later than that last note and it feels that we are no closer to an end and the U.S. just started bombing Iran again to attempt to bring them to the table to sign an agreement. Some positives that I see is that the administration has just said they they’ve had a secret program for a little while now to help ships get in and out of the Persian Gulf. If true, that’s good news for trade and I hope it keeps going. A quick look at the site, MarineTraffic.com shows there are still a lot of ships in the Gulf. Remember, about 20% of the world’s energy products (Oil, natural gas, LNG) flows through the Strait of Hormuz from the Persian Gulf.
The price of a barrel of oil right now is about $91 for WTI as I write this. It has been bouncing between $115 and about $80 since my last note. As you may already know, the price of oil can influence the prices for consumers for just about everything as most products that we consume are transported by trucks and or trains that run on diesel fuel. (oil is refined to create diesel, gas, jet fuel and other derivatives) Since oil has gone from the $50/barrel area to these much higher prices since the activity in Iran started, consumers are seeing higher prices, just as we saw inflation for the month of May (2026) was just reported at a rate of about 4.2%, the highest we’ve seen in a few years. As inflation is a little bit of a concern at these levels, you can understand why interest rates are a little higher in the marketplace. If inflation gets too high, the Federal Reserve usually raises interest rates to slow the economy down a bit to get inflation under control. So even though the Fed has not done anything with rates in a while, in the marketplace, they have been rising on their own. The national average for a 30-year mortgage now is about 6.55% which is high considering where we were a few years ago with exceptionally low rates.
My feeling, when we get the “Iran thing” solved, we could see over time the price of oil drop to the previous lows that we saw before the Iran issues, if not lower. I lean toward even lower prices as production in the western hemisphere has been increasing lately and I think its possible we could go into a glut situation on oil unless some producers voluntarily cut back on production. This should bring inflation back under control, lower fuel prices for everyone and potentially put us on a path for the Fed to lower rates…..which would be a boost for the housing, transportation, and retail markets and everything that supports them.
I will be in Houston for a few days and available to meet with clients and prospects. I will be available for meetings from about the 28th of June to the 1st of July. I will be driving there and back so if you know of anyone along the way that would like to meet, let me know.
Everyone is talking about the new IPO coming out tomorrow, SpaceX. This will be the largest IPO in history and its currently over four times oversubscribed. Meaning there are requests for four times more shares than what is coming out. That kind of demand will usually mean that the price could pop when it starts trading. It’s being priced at $135 per share and when you look at valuation, the offering is being priced very richly. As an example, all of the companies that make up the Aerospace group within the S&P 500 are valued at about $1.5 trillion. SpaceX is being valued at $1.8 trillion by itself. SpaceX is not only a rocket company that is getting paid by the U.S. and others to launch astronauts and satellites, but they are also an AI (artificial intelligence) language and Starlink. Starlink, in my wife’s words, “is a game changer.” While I’m driving, she is frequently on zoom calls on her laptop with multiple people, for work, or she is reading and writing e-mails for work. I even had a Facetime phone call with my daughter while driving through the Organ Pipe National Monument, which like most national parks, does not have any cell service whatsoever! Our Starlink mini is with us on any road trip now and we have been very happy with it over the year that we’ve had it. Starlink has over 10 million subscribers in over 165 countries and is currently a large part of the revenues of SpaceX. Also, with public sentiment turning against data centers with a “not in my backyard” kind of mantra, SpaceX already has plans to create data centers in space! They will no doubt be powered by solar panels made by Tesla, powered by computer chips made by Tesla, and put into space by rockets launched by SpaceX. This company will be so large that they will be included in many indexes if not right away, over a little bit of time. This will create additional buying into the shares as they are added to various indexes as those managers who manage money to mirror an index would be forced to buy them. A number of new IPO’s usually will fall in price over time. Could it happen with SpaceX? It might, and it might not, but if you are a growth mutual fund investor there will be no doubt you would probably be an owner to some degree through mutual funds. But look at Tesla… (another Elon Musk company)
Tesla owns a little more than 19 million shares of SpaceX. Tesla received these shares when they sold SpaceX the AI language. Keep in mind Tesla has rarely ever traded at a low multiple like most “car” companies. Some say it’s an Elon Musk premium. But Tesla is also a large solar equipment company, a robot company that is supposedly going to be producing more than 30,000 robots annually, a battery manufacturing company and soon a computer chip manufacturing company. Elon was unable to find a company that could produce the number of computer chips for his various companies’ needs so he has recently decided to build his own chip manufacturing plant. Think about that; his satellites, rockets, cars, and robots all need computer chips, not to mention his yet to be built space-based data centers. Musk also has another company named Neuralink that makes implantable computer chips for humans, but that company is separately owned. Not by Tesla or SpaceX. If we see a pop in SpaceX shares on the IPO tomorrow, we will likely see Tesla shares move also as they own over 19 million shares of SpaceX. There are rumors that at some time Elon Musk might want to merge Tesla into SpaceX. We will see. Elon revolutionized the car industry. The interest and demand he has created in Electric Vehicles (EV’s) is not comparable with any other accomplishment since Ford started the assembly line to build cars. Not to mention the direct sales model of selling direct to the customer has broken the mold of car dealerships that we’ve all experienced. Tesla now sells more than 1.5 million cars a year. Obviously, Tesla is not just another car company after 16 years of being public so what do you think SpaceX “might become” after 16 years or more of being public? Elon is getting ready to turn 55 years old this month so he could have many more years to “Create”! Don’t forget he also owns X (formerly known as Twitter) and The Boring Company, an underground tunneling company.
In conclusion, you can see that the world is ever changing and with that the investing markets are always changing. This is what keeps me going is interpreting what is happening on a global scale and determining how that affects our investing markets and helping customers manage their investments within this environment. As always, if you know of anyone who may need help with their investments, retirement plans, insurance needs, etc, please let me know. If you have any questions or comments, please get in touch. My prior notes that I have sent out are all available on my business page. Just search for Skains Investment Partners on Facebook and please “Follow.” Also, I recently had my internet site rebuilt and there is plenty of information available there as well. You can find it at www.SkainsInvestmentPartners.com
My mentions of SpaceX, Tesla and any other public company are not solicitations or advice to buy shares, of any public company. Please consult with your investment advisor about investing in public companies.
Derek
All of the comments stated within these notes are the opinion of Derek Skains and not the opinion of Osaic Wealth, Osaic Advisory Services or Pershing LLC. These notes should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with your advisor so that when making investments you can make them within your respective investment objectives and risk tolerances.
At age 94, Warren Buffett recently announced his retirement as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. This article focuses on investment fundamentals as well as tips and quotes from the famous investor.