08/27/2025
The futures market is pricing in an almost 86% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by .25% on their September 17th meeting. If this does occur and if there are further cuts, there are many that believe that it could ultimately lead to lower near term borrowing costs. The largest and most impactful for the consumer, being mortgage rates. Historically, the 30-year mortgage rate has had an extremely positive relationship with the 10-year treasury yield (when one goes up the other goes up, when one goes down the other goes down), moving in a similar direction 90% of the time. This relationship is how the Federal Reserve has indirectly been able to influence the real estate market via its monetary policy, and through that policy's impact on the all important 10-year treasury. Since last October, this relationship has weakened and the implications could indicate that the ability for the Federal Reserve to support the real estate market via policy could be declining. Previous periods of reduced correlation between the 30-year mortgage and 10-year treasury were during the subprime housing crisis of 2008 and during the covid recession of 2021.