Todd Rosen, CRPC, AWMA - May, Bonee & Clark Financial Services

09/02/2026

When the supply of money grows faster than the supply of homes, land, energy, metals and infrastructure, each dollar is competing for a limited amount of real-world assets.

That is the practical effect of monetary debasement: cash may retain its face value while gradually buying less.

This is why I believe real assets deserve a place both in an investment portfolio and in real life. Real estate, infrastructure, energy, commodities, precious metals and ownership in productive businesses provide exposure to scarce, useful assets that cannot simply be created with a keystroke.

It does not mean abandoning stocks, bonds or liquidity. It means building a diversified balance sheet designed to preserve purchasing power as the supply of money continues to expand.

BREAKING: Global broad money supply surged +$10.7 trillion YoY in June, or +7.7%, to a record $150 trillion.

This marks the 9th consecutive YoY increase above +7.0%, the longest such streak since 2021.

The biggest increase over this period was recorded in February 2026, at +11.9%.

Since 2000, global money supply has risen +$124 trillion, a +6.9% compounded annual growth rate over this period.

Since 2020 alone, money supply has surged +$50 trillion, or +50%, equivalent to an average increase of ~$7.5 trillion per year.

Global money creation is expanding at a historic pace.

08/27/2026

A few weeks ago I reposted a basic ChatGPT retirement prompt. It was fine, but this is a far more powerful one worth trying.

💡Paste it into Claude (claude.ai). Instead of one static number, it interviews you one question at a time, estimates the gaps for you (even your Social Security), then writes a working web page with slide bars. Move your retirement age, income goal, and rate of return and watch the plan respond live. Green when you are funded, red when the money runs short. In a minute you know if you are on track, over-saving, or short, and what runs out when.
Answer the questions, let it build the visual, then bring the results to a professional to interpret and implement.

👉Here's the prompt:
▶You are an experienced CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER running a retirement fact-finder. Ask me ONE question at a time and wait for each answer. Offer multiple-choice or fill-in-the-blank options, and if I do not know a number, estimate it from what I have told you and state your assumption (for example, estimate Social Security from my salary and age).
Ask, one at a time, about: my age and marital status (and spouse age); target retirement age; desired monthly income in today's dollars; savings by type (pretax 401k/IRA, Roth, taxable, HSA, cash); monthly savings and employer match; expected Social Security and pension; expected return; inflation; the age to plan through; and any amount to leave heirs.
Then: (1) summarize my answers by category; (2) give a plain verdict, on track, over-funded, or short, with my ending balance or the age the money runs out; (3) build a single self-contained HTML page with slide bars for at least retirement age, income goal, and rate of return, plus my other inputs, that recalculates and redraws a balance-by-age chart in real time as I move any slider, green when funded and red when short, marking retirement age, legacy goal, and any run-out age; (4) keep language plain, define terms, and note this is a simplified educational projection that ignores taxes and fees and is not personal advice.
Start with the first question.◀

*Educational only. Ignores taxes, RMDs, sequence risk, and fees. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Talk with a qualified professional before acting.*

08/21/2026

It now takes only about 130 ounces of gold to buy the typical U.S. home.

That caught my attention.

In the early 2000s, it took more than 700 ounces of gold to buy a typical home. As recently as 2022, the ratio was roughly 300+ ounces.

So what changed?

Home prices certainly went up. But gold went up much more.

This chart compares the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index with the price of gold. Because both assets are being measured against each other, the dollar effectively drops out of the calculation.

And the message is interesting:

U.S. housing currently looks relatively inexpensive when measured in gold.

And it isn't just gold. You can get a similar broader perspective by pricing housing in units of the S&P 500, silver, or other major asset indexes. The exact cycles differ, but the exercise highlights an important point: an asset can become much more expensive in dollars without necessarily becoming more expensive relative to other assets.

That does not mean houses are inexpensive relative to incomes, mortgage payments, or affordability. They clearly aren't in many parts of the country.

It means something different.

Over long periods of time, the purchasing power of the dollar changes. An asset can rise substantially in dollar terms while becoming cheaper relative to another scarce or appreciating asset.

That's one reason I think investors should pay attention to real assets as part of a diversified portfolio. Real estate, commodities, precious metals, infrastructure and other tangible assets can help provide protection during periods of persistent inflation or declining purchasing power.

Cash and money-market funds certainly have a role, especially with attractive yields today. But over longer periods, if your after-tax return doesn't keep pace with inflation, purchasing power can quietly erode.

The goal isn't simply to have more dollars. It's to preserve and grow what those dollars can actually buy.

How much of your portfolio is positioned to preserve purchasing power over the next 10–20 years?

Source: LongtermTrends, Real Estate to Gold Ratio
https://www.longtermtrends.com/real-estate-gold-ratio/

07/30/2026

A helpful reminder during volatile markets: weakness alone does not mean a bear market has begun.

Grant Hawkridge’s checklist currently shows 0 of 6 bearish signals, with the primary trend, momentum, breadth, cyclicals, correlations, and credit markets all remaining constructive.

There can still be pullbacks, but the broader evidence continues to point to a healthy bull-market regime rather than a developing bear market.

Credit to for the clear framework.

07/23/2026

Can retirement assets help strengthen a cash offer on a home?

I was recently speaking with a local Realtor who shared that, in this competitive housing market, some buyers are using retirement assets to help make stronger offers.

This can be a risky strategy. If it is not handled correctly, it could result in a sizable tax bill and potential IRS penalties. While these options may be available, it is important to proceed carefully and consult with a financial advisor, tax professional, and plan administrator before taking action.

One strategy some people consider is an indirect rollover. Another potentially more powerful option, although it is not available to everyone, is Net Unrealized Appreciation, or NUA.

Indirect rollover:

With an indirect rollover, you take a distribution from a retirement account, use the funds for the purchase, and then return the eligible amount to a retirement account within 60 days, often after closing and obtaining mortgage financing.

A few important considerations:

• A distribution paid directly to you from a 401(k) is generally subject to mandatory 20% federal tax withholding, plus possible state withholding.

• With an IRA distribution, you may have more control over withholding and may be able to elect zero federal withholding. State rules vary.

• Miss the 60-day deadline and the distribution can become fully taxable. The taxable amount is added to your household income for the year, which could push a portion of your income into higher tax brackets and affect other income-based tax considerations.

• If you are under age 59½, a 10% early withdrawal penalty may also apply unless an exception is available.

• IRA indirect rollovers are generally limited to one per rolling 12-month period.

This is not a loan. The timing must be coordinated carefully.

NUA opportunity:

NUA may be available when money is held in a previous employer retirement plan that contains highly appreciated employer stock.

Unlike an indirect rollover, an NUA transaction does not require the assets to be returned to a retirement account within 60 days.

Instead, the employer stock is distributed from the retirement plan into a taxable brokerage account. NUA is a taxable distribution, and taxes may be withheld at the time of the transaction.

When the shares are sold, the appreciation is generally taxed as a capital gain. Capital gains tax rates are generally lower than ordinary income tax rates.

If the 10% early withdrawal penalty applies, it generally applies only to the taxable cost-basis portion, not to the net unrealized appreciation.

You can repurchase the shares after selling them, but the newly purchased shares will have a new cost basis.

NUA can be a powerful planning strategy, but it is highly technical and is not appropriate or available in every situation.

I worked on dozens of NUA cases at my previous broker-dealer, and it remains one of the more overlooked planning opportunities for people with highly appreciated employer stock.

Before using retirement assets for a home purchase, make sure the transaction has been reviewed in advance by your financial advisor, tax advisor, and plan administrator.

07/08/2026

If you have employer stock sitting in your 401(k), don't miss this potential opportunity.

Net Unrealized Appreciation, or NUA, is still one of the most overlooked strategies in retirement planning. I have walked hundreds of clients through this decision.

It tends to matter most when you have low cost-basis employer stock in your 401(k), you want to keep some or all of it long term, and have Roth or after tax money in the plan that can be coordinated with the distribution.

Here is a simple example:

You hold $1 million of company stock in your 401(k). Average cost is $10 a share. Current price is $100. That position breaks down to $100,000 of cost basis and $900,000 of appreciation.

With a properly structured NUA transaction, the shares move in kind to a taxable brokerage account instead of an IRA. Generally, only the $100,000 basis is taxed as ordinary income at distribution. The $900,000 of appreciation is not taxed until you sell, and then it gets long term capital gains treatment.

That is meaningful. A million dollars leaves the pretax system instead of sitting there and eventually driving RMDs, ordinary income, Medicare IRMAA thresholds, and the tax bill your heirs inherit along with the account.

Roth or after tax dollars inside the plan can improve the math further. If plan rules allow $100,000 of that money to coordinate with the stock's cost basis, you are looking at moving the full $1 million position into a taxable account with a fundamentally different tax profile going forward. This should never be assumed. It is always worth checking.

Once the stock is in a brokerage account, you control the timing of sales, and you control the tax rate. IRA withdrawals are taxed as ordinary income. Capital gains from a brokerage account are taxed at a lower rate, and if your income falls in the 12% bracket or below in a given year, long term capital gains can be taxed at 0%. Retired, before Social Security, before RMDs. Those are the years to look at selling a portion of the position each year and potentially paying no federal tax on the gain.

The position can also produce income along the way through dividends, or through a covered call strategy for the right client and the right stock. There are tradeoffs, so this needs to be built carefully but it can provide meaningful income at a lower tax rate than ordinary income from IRA distributions.

There is an estate angle too. The original NUA basis does not step up at death, but appreciation after the NUA distribution generally does. Stock worth $100 at the time of the 401k distribution and $300 at death means your beneficiaries avoid $200/share of capital gains.

None of this is automatic. Concentration risk, tax bracket, age, cost basis, available Roth and after tax sources, and the specific plan rules all decide whether NUA makes sense.

But if a large chunk of your 401(k) is in company stock, that decision deserves a real look before the shares get rolled into an IRA by default.

05/29/2026

The Biggest Mistakes People Make With Inherited Money:

An inheritance can be a blessing. But handled the wrong way, it can also create unnecessary taxes, investment mistakes, and family stress.

A few common mistakes I see:

1. Spending before planning
It is easy to treat an inheritance like “found money.” Before making big decisions, understand the tax impact, cash needs, debt, and long-term goals.

2. Mishandling inherited IRAs
Inherited retirement accounts have specific rules. Many non-spouse beneficiaries are subject to the 10-year rule, and the timing of withdrawals can have major tax consequences.

3. Taking inherited IRA distributions too fast
Pulling everything out in one year can push heirs into a higher tax bracket, increase Medicare IRMAA surcharges, reduce tax credits, or create unnecessary tax drag.

4. Waiting too long and creating a year-10 tax bomb
The opposite mistake is taking little or nothing for years, then being forced to distribute a large inherited IRA balance in year 10. That can create a much larger tax bill.

5. Selling assets without understanding cost basis
Many inherited taxable assets receive a step-up in basis. That can significantly change the capital gains tax picture.

6. Keeping the same portfolio
The investments may have been right for the person who passed away, but they may not be right for the beneficiary.

7. Ignoring estate and beneficiary updates
Receiving an inheritance is often a good time to revisit your own will, trust, powers of attorney, and beneficiary designations.

The best move is usually to pause.

Before you spend, sell, roll over, or reinvest inherited assets, build a coordinated plan around taxes, cash flow, investment risk, and long-term goals.

An inheritance should strengthen your financial future, not create avoidable mistakes.

05/27/2026

I’ve posted about the Dow Transports before because they can be a useful signal of economic resilience.

If products are being made, they also need to be shipped.
So when transportation stocks are acting well, it often points to healthy demand, improving activity, and a stronger underlying economy.

There are plenty of concerns right now: inflation, oil prices, valuation bubbles, layoffs, and geopolitical risk.

But when you combine:
• strong earnings growth
• improving manufacturing activity
• resilient consumer and business demand
• strength in economically sensitive areas like transports
…it suggests the fundamentals may be stronger than the headlines imply.

Markets always have noise.

The key is knowing when to respect the risks, and when to stay focused on the bigger picture.

Right now, there are still plenty of reasons to remain constructive and let disciplined investment plans continue working.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/toddarosen_i-pointed-this-out-a-few-weeks-ago-when-the-activity-7452778574874513408-0ZBY?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAALfsZ8BNvd2nw-ZSP5Y7ShptKH1zwCyup8

05/22/2026

Manufacturing May Be Sending a Bullish Signal

For the first time in a while, U.S. Manufacturing PMI Output is starting to outperform Services PMI Business Activity.

For much of the post-COVID cycle, services carried the economy while manufacturing stayed more uneven. But if manufacturing output is now moving back above services, it may be a sign that the expansion is broadening.

Why that could be bullish:

✅ Manufacturing above 50 signals expansion

✅ Manufacturing strength can support earnings breadth

✅ It may point to improving demand for industrials, materials, energy, transportation, and infrastructure

✅ It fits with the AI/data center/power/grid buildout theme

This doesn’t mean “all clear.”Inflation, Fed policy, oil prices, and geopolitics still matter. But if manufacturing is starting to lead again, that’s an important signal. Bull markets tend to get healthier when participation broadens.

And a manufacturing rebound could be one more clue that this economy is more resilient than the headlines suggest.

05/11/2026

QCDs: A Smarter Way to Give in Retirement

A Qualified Charitable Distribution, or QCD, can be one of the most tax-efficient ways for retirees to give to charities they care about.

Here’s why:
Once you reach age 70½, you can send money directly from your IRA to a qualified charity.
Even though RMDs generally don’t begin until age 73, QCDs can start earlier. And for 2026, you can give up to $111,000 per person through QCDs, regardless of how much your RMD is. For married couples, each spouse can use their own IRA limit.

The big benefit?
A QCD can satisfy all or part of your RMD, but the amount donated is excluded from taxable income. That is different from writing a personal check to charity and hoping you receive a tax deduction.

Many retirees take the standard deduction and are unable to itemize, which means they may not get much tax benefit from charitable gifts. A QCD can bypass that issue because it reduces taxable IRA income directly.
That can potentially help with:
✅ Lower taxable income
✅ Reduced tax impact from RMDs
✅ Charitable giving without needing to itemize
✅ Possible reduction in income-based Medicare surcharge exposure
✅ Supporting organizations that matter to you

At LPL, the process is fairly simple. We can either set up checkwriting on a brokerage IRA, allowing clients to write checks directly to qualified charities, or clients can provide the charity details and LPL can send the check directly as a QCD.

For clients who are charitably inclined and taking IRA distributions, this is worth reviewing before year-end.

*As always, coordinate with your tax professional to make sure the gift qualifies and is reported properly*