05/29/2026
π° Weekly Brief | 24β29 May 2026
1οΈβ£ Inflation Still Running Hot
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge came in at 3.8% year-over-year in April, its hottest reading since May 2023, driven by the significant energy price surge. Core PCE held at 3.3% annually. Markets now price the Fed on hold through at least late 2026, with some traders positioning for a hike as the next move.
2οΈβ£ Treasuries Under Pressure
The 30-year Treasury yield recently hit its highest level since 2007, and the 10-year has climbed nearly three-quarters of a percentage point from its recent low, pressured by Iran-related inflation fears and growing concern over ballooning government debt. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield has moved above the fed funds rate β a pattern that has preceded a Fed rate hike every single time it has occurred over the past 30 years.
3οΈβ£ Iran Talks Go On
US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative framework to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and open nuclear talks, though neither President Trump nor Iran's supreme leader has signed off. The central sticking point remains Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and the question of enrichment itself.
4οΈβ£ Stock Risk Premium Vanishes
The gap between the S&P 500's earnings yield and the 10-year Treasury yield has nearly closed, falling to its tightest level since the dot-com bust. With oil above $93 and yields above 4.5%, the traditional case for stocks over bonds has quietly evaporated.
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Sources for TG: WSJ, CNN, Stordahl Capital Management, CME Group