Northeast Private Client Group

05/29/2026

🔹Waiting on Iran and the SpaceX IPO
A preliminary US–Iran ceasefire and nuclear-talk framework is being negotiated, though major sticking points remain. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s expected mid-June IPO could become a defining market event, combining a record-setting valuation, passive-index demand, and an AI infrastructure narrative with significant funding needs, Starship ex*****on risk, and a potential price-to-sales multiple near 100x.

🔹Markets closed the week at fresh record highs
Optimism around a potential US–Iran framework, a sharp decline in oil prices, and easing energy-driven inflation fears. WTI fell more than 9% on the week, while Treasury yields moved lower, with the 10-year down 12 bps to 4.4% and the 2-year down 11 bps to 4.0%.

🔹Market leadership broadened beyond megacap technology
Small caps leading the advance over the last week. The Russell 2000 rose 3.3%, outpacing the NASDAQ’s 3.0% gain, while the Dow lagged with a more modest 0.8% increase.

🔹The macro backdrop still points to a low-grade stagflationary mix.
Core PCE firmed to 3.3% year-over-year, Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.6%, and Fed commentary tilted more hawkish. Consumer spending remains resilient, but increasingly dependent on lower savings and more selective household behavior.

🔹The AI investment cycle remains a key market support
Dell’s strong earnings and Anthropic’s latest funding round, which reportedly lifted its private valuation toward $1 trillion continue to provide equity market support. However, private credit redemptions and crowded momentum positioning in large-cap technology remain potential late-cycle warning signs.

Our Chief Investment Officer, Christopher Pike, CFA®, unpacks this and more in our "Thinking Out Loud" note: "The Waiting Is The Hardest Part” Click here to read the full report: https://bit.ly/TOLTheWaiting

05/13/2026

Congratulations to Bill Barrett on the official launch of Authentic.

This book reflects values that resonate deeply: hard work, integrity, leadership, and staying grounded in what matters most. We are proud to support Bill and celebrate this meaningful milestone alongside our friends at Mandelbaum Barrett PC.

Thank you, Bill, for sharing your story and perspective with others.

Authentic is available now. We encourage you to check it out ➡️ https://bit.ly/4wji3EI

We’re proud to share that Authentic by Bill Barrett officially launches today.

The book explores old‑school principles that still matter—integrity, relationships, hard work, and trust—and how they form the foundation for lasting success.

Congratulations to Bill on this milestone. We’re excited to see these ideas reach a wider audience.

Learn more here:
https://bit.ly/4wji3EI

05/11/2026

Last week, the Northeast team celebrated Cinco de Mayo with festive colors, great food, and a happy hour to close out the day. 🌮🎉

It was a fun opportunity to step away from the routine, connect as a team, and enjoy time together outside of the day-to-day. Moments like these continue to strengthen the culture and relationships behind everything we do.

We hope everyone had a great Cinco de Mayo!

05/08/2026

🔹Bubblicious equities
For the week, S&P 500 +1.5%, Nasdaq-100 +3.1%, Russell 2000 +1.0%, EM +6.7% on the week; large-cap tech up over 12% since the Iran-US conflict began, with the top 10 Nasdaq names averaging +784% over twelve months versus +622% at the March 2000 peak — we expect a modest near-term pullback ahead of a larger retracement if $4.50 gasoline pressures the consumer.

🔹Earnings driving the melt-up
Q1 2026 earnings tracking above +28% YoY (more than double the April 1 expectation), full-year 2026 EPS now pegged at +24% versus ~16% at year-start; only soft spot is 2027, easing to +14.9% from +16.6%.

🔹Goldilocks macro
April payrolls +115K vs. +65K consensus, unemployment steady at 4.3%, wages cooling to +3.8% YoY; ADP +109K, claims near multi-decade lows, JOLTS hires +9% to 5.3M, and Q1 productivity +2.9% with unit labor costs at +1.2% — the slowest since Q3 2023.

🔹Rates/credit unfazed
Markets no longer price any 2026 cuts after hawkish Musalem and Goolsbee commentary; 10-year holds near 4.35%, IG spreads at 92 bps and HY at 292 bps remain well inside long-run averages of 163 and 500 bps — bond markets signaling a soft landing. Next catalyst: Tuesday CPI (consensus +3.9% YoY).

🔹Geopolitical Cat & Mouse
US-Iran clash near Hormuz with three US destroyers targeted (no casualties) and US strikes on Iranian launch and C2 sites; Trump called it a "love tap.” The ceasefire remains intact for now; Pakistan mediating an MOU on Hormuz reopening, sanctions relief, and enrichment limits, with Saudi/Kuwaiti base access now granted. We expect Iran to push limits.

Our Chief Investment Officer, Christopher Pike, CFA®, unpacks this and more in our "Thinking Out Loud" note: "Bubblicious” Click here to read the full report: https://bit.ly/TOLBubblicious

05/06/2026

We’re proud to congratulate our CEO, Mark B. Murphy, on being recognized as a 2026 Forbes Best-In-State Wealth Advisor, ranking #10 in New Jersey by Forbes and SHOOK Research.

This recognition reflects more than performance. It speaks to decades of disciplined leadership, strategic thinking, and an unwavering commitment to helping families and business owners build meaningful, lasting wealth.

Mark continues to set the standard through his vision, integrity, and dedication to those we serve. We are honored to celebrate this achievement and the impact behind it.

Congratulations, Mark, on this well-deserved recognition.

04/30/2026

🔹Birds of Pray
The Federal Open Market Committee held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, but the 8–4 split marked the most dissents in over three decades. The divide wasn’t about cutting rates now, but about resisting language that signals future easing amid persistent inflation risks.

🔹Out with the Old
With the DOJ shelving its probe into the Fed building's cost overruns, the path for Kevin Warsh to become Fed Chair is now largely cleared, with Senate approval expected in May.

🔹Should I Stay…
Jerome Powell faces a pivotal decision. He could step down with precedent or remain on the Board and disrupt the transition. Staying could reinforce perceptions of institutional independence and help protect Powell both from a legal and reputational perspective. Markets may also welcome a signal of policy continuity, likely flattening the yield curve and thus supporting risk assets in the near-term. But persistently restrictive short rates could run the risk of eventually tipping the economy into recession.

🔹…Or Should I Go?
If Jerome Powell steps down, Kevin Warsh would have a clean slate to reset policy—likely shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet and leaning toward lower interest rates. That could push short-term rates down faster than long-term ones (steepening the curve) and give a boost to stocks and other risk assets, but it also risks hurting the Fed’s credibility if inflation picks back up, which could ultimately lead to a downturn for both stocks and the economy.

Our Chief Investment Officer, Christopher Pike, CFA®, unpacks this and more in our "Thinking Out Loud" note: "Should I Stay Or Should I Go?” Click here to read the full report: https://bit.ly/TOLShouldIStay

04/24/2026

🔹Geopolitics
The Iran conflict remains key for risk assets, though markets are leaning toward de-escalation. Talks may resume this weekend as Iran engages via Pakistan, and the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has been extended. Markets are pricing disruption, not destruction, however since the conflict began, equities have started off the week strong, only to fade into the weekend.

🔹Macro Data
Better-than-feared economic prints support a soft-landing narrative—strong retail sales/control group, solid PMIs, stable claims—offset by lingering stagflation risks (elevated inflation expectations, potential GDP miss). Early signs of tech layoffs (Meta, Microsoft) could broaden and are worth watching.

🔹Fed & Rate Policy
Kevin Warsh outlined a reform agenda; confirmation path improved after DOJ probe pause. Fedspeak has turned more hawkish; focus shifts to next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting with GDP, core PCE, ECI, and ISM. Markets price ~99% odds of no rate change.

🔹Equities & Earnings
Quarterly earnings are printing strong with EPS +28% thus far, implying a +14.9% growth rate. However, indices are trading flat-to-mixed after all-time highs. Defensives outperformed cyclicals last week and rotation continues from software to hardware. International markets lagged the U.S.

🔹Rates, Credit & Commodities
The curve steepened (10Y ~4.33%, 2Y ~3.84%); credit spreads remain tight vs. history, though private credit stress is emerging. Energy remains volatile, as Brent still trades ~$100 with declining, however forward expectations for lower oil prices. Futher, gasoline >$4 remains a macro risk. Gold ended the week flat with Bitcoin modestly higher.

Our Chief Investment Officer, Christopher Pike, CFA®, unpacks this and more in our "Thinking Out Loud" note: "Everybody’s Working For The Weekend” Click here to read the full report: https://bit.ly/TOLWorkingForTheWeekend

04/24/2026

The future showed up to work yesterday🎉

Bring Your Child to Work Day at Northeast is always a reminder of why we do what we do. It is about more than the work in front of us. It is about the families we support, the examples we set, and the next generation watching it all come together.

From office tours to hands-on activities, it was a day filled with curiosity, energy, and a few future leaders in the making. Moments like this reinforce what matters most and bring our core value of Family First, People First to life.

We are grateful to share what we do with those who matter most 🎊👨‍👩‍👧‍👦

04/17/2026

🔹Growth & Fed: April Beige Book shows war-related uncertainty translating into deferred capex and softer hiring intent, even as growth remains resilient. Rate cuts now pushed to September at earliest, with NY Fed's Williams projecting inflation at 2.75–3.00% by year-end 2026.

🔹Ceasefire dynamics: Mediators report an "in principle agreement" on a two-week ceasefire extension, with enrichment levels described as "negotiable" — a subtle off-ramp toward durable resolution. Iran faces profound economic pressure with $270B in reconstruction costs, up to 12M jobs at risk, and a blockade costing ~$435M per day.

🔹Energy unwind: WTI near $90 and Brent near $96 — well off the $120 peak — signals the geopolitical premium is clearly unwinding. A failed extension past the April 22 deadline, however, risks permanent oil field shut-in damage and a move back toward $100+.

🔹Equities: S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time and the Nasdaq 100 is tracking its longest winning streak since 2017, powered by earnings and ceasefire optimism. Breadth remains narrow with "buy the dip" behavior back, but FactSet consensus expects Q1 S&P 500 earnings growth of +12.6% y/y — Tech leading at +45% and Semis at +95%.

🔹Rates & credit: The 10-year sits near 4.28–4.30% with the MOVE index down sharply from its late-March peak, signaling calmer conditions. IG spreads at ~0.92% (vs. 1.63% post-2008 average) and HY at ~2.93% (vs. 5.05% long-term) suggest the bond market is signaling the war is effectively over.

Our Chief Investment Officer, Christopher Pike, CFA®, unpacks this and more in our "Thinking Out Loud" note: "Green Shoots or Withering Vines?” Click here to read the full report: https://bit.ly/TOLGreenShoots

04/15/2026

Strong practices require more than clinical excellence... they require leadership.

We’re proud to be part of Camp CEO, a one-day immersive experience designed for dental practice owners ready to elevate how they think, lead, and grow their businesses.

Led by Ty Aldinger, a nationally recognized executive coach who helps leaders across industries, this session focuses on applying a CEO mindset, strengthening leadership, aligning teams, and creating strategies that drive long-term success.

Our Managing Partner, Benjamin Bush, will also be joining the program, contributing to the conversation around disciplined thinking, intentional growth, and building sustainable practices.

Event Details:
📍 401 S Christopher Columbus Blvd, Philadelphia, PA 19106
📅 Friday, April 24, 2026
⏰ 9:00 AM – 4:00 PM

🔹 Growth strategies for your practice
🔹 Applying a CEO mindset to leadership
🔹 Building stronger teams and systems
🔹 Actionable frameworks for long-term success

This is a focused, high-impact day designed for those looking to work on their business, not just in it.

We look forward to seeing you there.

Register today ➡️ bit.ly/4qM7NRU