09/03/2026
Investor Bill Gurley once joked that the reason Silicon Valley has created so much wealth is because it's the city furthest from Washington, D.C.
There's some humor in that, but also an important reminder for investors as we approach the midterm elections.
Since 1974, midterm election years have experienced an average maximum intra-year S&P 500 decline of approximately 18%, compared with 14% during presidential election years and 12% during other years.
That's not a prediction for 2026. It's perspective.
Zoom out even further: from 2009 through August 2026, the S&P 500 compounded at approximately 15% annually—across five presidential terms, both political parties, a pandemic, inflation, geopolitical conflicts and countless unsettling headlines.
Politics matter. But over the long run, businesses, earnings, innovation and economic growth matter too.
As November approaches, the goal shouldn't be to predict the next headline or market move. It should be to make sure your financial plan is prepared for whatever comes next.
Stay informed. Stay diversified. Stay focused on the plan.