08/11/2026
I'm often asked about my take on AI in this industry, and how it should be integrated into investment management.
Social media often comments that AI will take over everything routine.
I'm fond of saying that AI can see down the hallway just fine, but it can't see around the corner.
Here's what I mean by that sentiment.
We have a general expectation in our daily living heuristics of stability and predictability. Today will be much like yesterday. We get out of bed, dress, have breakfast, trek off to work, come home, play with the kids, watch TV, and call it a night.
The majority of people live within the comfort zone of such predictability, and tend to anxiety whenever uncertainty hits life.
Here's the problem with that heuristic.
Life isn't predictable, not really. Chaos happens regularly. Jobs change, loved ones die unexpectedly, natural disasters wreak havoc... we see these things as the exception, but they're really the rule.
What we call the "unexpected" will happen - it's a mathematical certainty.
If you've ever watched smoke rise in a relatively stable manner, then become a little wavy, then descend into chaos - you're witnessing a phenomenon in fluid dynamics called the Laminar-Turbulent transition.
Consider the image below of cigarette smoke rising from an ashtray. You can easily see the L-T transition point in that image.
Computers can predict with precision where the transition takes place based on the environmental conditions, such as air density, air temperature, air flow, and so forth.
AI excels at these types of computations.
At the L-T transition point, chaos mathematics takes over, because the number of variables influencing the behavior of the smoke explodes into infinity. Beyond the L-T transition point... *any* outcome is mathematically probable and equally likely based on the variables.
No amount of AI computing can account for those probabilities.
The L-T transition point is the corner around which AI will never be able to see.
Life works very much this way.
When it comes to investing, my team and I use AI as a tool to assess data within the limits of what we might call the L-T transition point in human behavior.
Because that's all economics is: a mathematical description of your behavior manifested at scale.
AI is a tool that we can use to wonderful effect.
But like any tool, it must be used within the limits of its utility.