04/06/2026
Mega-cap tech just had its worst quarter since the financial crisis. Many of the largest tech names are down 20% to 50%.
Investors question whether massive AI spending will translate into durable earnings power, whether the Iran War may result in re-inflation, and if the ongoing tariffs debacle will also add headwinds to CPI.
The issue is not whether AI will matter. It will. Its not 1999.
The issue is timing and ROI and potential other headwinds on big tech.
Wall Street is asking whether hundreds of billions in data centers, chips, and infrastructure will generate meaningful profits or pressure margins for several years.
Competition is intensifying. Enterprise adoption is fragmenting across platforms as alternatives from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and others accelerate innovation cycles. Traditional software companies are also feeling pressure from what some are calling a SaaSpocalypse.
AI tools are disrupting legacy subscription models and pricing power. Recent private credit stress highlights another risk, as many smaller and mid-sized tech companies carry floating-rate debt, increasing sensitivity to higher interest costs as growth expectations reset.
Layer in geopolitics. Supply chains tied to energy, chips, and industrial inputs remain vulnerable if the Iran conflict extends. Oil shocks ripple through transportation, manufacturing, and food costs, raising the expense required to build and power large-scale data centers.
Helium supply is another overlooked constraint. It plays a critical role in semiconductor manufacturing and chip cooling. Prolonged disruption could slow AI infrastructure deployment more than markets expect.
Markets are adjusting to the reality that the next phase of returns may depend more on earnings growth than multiple expansion. While many economists and CIOs are touting Q1 as a fear based sell off - you may still want to buckle down a bit more as the Iran war continues.
We continue to emphasize diversified, all-weather portfolio construction rather than concentration in a single theme or trade.
Tech is down. Bitcoin is down. Gold is down. Financials are down. It’s feeling a bit, ominous out there like being in the eye of a storm.
As we’ve worked through disruption with our clients before & after the dotcom bubble crash from 26 years ago- Innovation cycles create winners and losers.
Strategic and tactical diversification allows participation without needing to predict which platform dominates. Our client balanced portfolios are fully deployed and staying on course- as market timing and panic are not long-term strategies
Leadership in markets rotates.
Strategy should not.
With Microsoft losing almost a quarter of its value this year, investors have reset the company's earnings multiple to the lowest since late 2022.