10/01/2026
Outdoor growers harvest in October, and the industry has a name for what happens next, the Croptober flood. Supply hits the market all at once. Wholesale prices fall through the floor. And by the way, the trackers that follow wholesale prices put the October drop in double digits. A lot of that flower sits in a cure room waiting for a buyer.
Kristi has an accounting rule for it. In most of our old jobs, year end meant looking at inventory and asking whether it needed a markdown, as a matter of routine. It’s lower of cost or market, the way most of us learned it. In cannabis she won’t take the December price as the market number. Everything just hit the market on the first of the month, so of course the price is depressed. And if you mark the whole harvest down to three hundred dollars because that’s the December number, you’ve booked a loss the grower may never take. They can hold it and sell it later in the year. That December number isn’t the price they’re actually gonna get.
The farm has the same problem from the other end. Kristi’s own farm harvests in three sequential batches, because her dry room and cure room can’t hold the whole crop at once. If she tried, it would all mold. A cultivation consultant who joined one of our calls, fifteen years into growing, calls the fix butter knifing the harvest across the season. He uses auto flower genetics that finish early no matter the daylight, and a cheap hoop house when he needs to force a batch. And he picks a catalog of strains that land at different weeks, so the grower has product coming to market before and after the flood instead of in the middle of it.
And the financial model has to carry this too. One early grow Andrew worked with had a model that said, in effect, we’re gonna grow a buttload of w**d every year and sell it for insanely high prices forever. They were wrong on all three counts. And they never answered the question of who was buying it. So a real model runs a worst case price, an expected price, and a best case price. On that same farm Andrew’s team built a tool they still use, the Flower Calendar. It tells you, for every single plant, when it gets harvested, dried, cured, trimmed, and sold, and when the cash actually hits the bank.
So run three prices. And put every plant on a calendar before the first one comes down. That’s the schedule an investor wants to see.