05/13/2026
Financial markets have a long history of brushing off geopolitical events. Wars, elections, and diplomatic flare-ups dominate headlines, drive short-term volatility — and then fade as investors refocus on fundamentals.
The question today: does that pattern still hold as tensions with Iran push energy prices higher?
So far, the answer appears to be yes.
Here's what we're watching:
🔎 Consumer sentiment hit a record low in April, driven by gas prices and inflation concerns — yet spending has remained remarkably resilient.
🔎 Household balance sheets are strong. Net worth relative to disposable income is near an all-time high, giving consumers a cushion even as budgets tighten.
🔎 Markets recovered quickly after initial Iran-related volatility. Following the April 7 ceasefire announcement, AI reasserted itself as the dominant narrative — with corporate earnings expectations revised upward.
Geopolitics may shake markets in the short term. But fundamentals ultimately decide direction. And right now, those fundamentals are still pointing forward.
Read our full analysis in the May Blog:
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