23/10/2026
This chart tracks the S&P 500's return from each midterm election day through June 30 of the following year. Historically, this window has been one of the more favorable stretches of the four-year presidential cycle for U.S. stocks.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher at the end of this window following every midterm election shown, with an average return of approximately 15.5%. Results have varied widely from one cycle to the next, ranging from low single digits to more than 25%.
Election seasons often bring uncertainty, and investors may have a range of concerns heading into year-end. Historically, however, the S&P 500 has tended to perform well in the months following midterm elections. Past results do not guarantee future returns.