Ehhed Capital Limited, 1007, 10th Floor, Roshan Trade Centre, Shaheed-e-Millat Road, Bahadurabad Bahadur Yar Jang CHS (2026)

07/08/2024

𝐄𝐱𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐏𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧’𝐬 𝐄𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫! 🚀

In a groundbreaking development, substantial new oil and gas deposits had been located in the Kohat district of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P)! This discovery is thanks to the joint efforts of the Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), and Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL). 🎉
But that’s not all! PPL has additionally efficaciously remodeled the gasoline compressors at the Sui gas discipline, one of our usa’s largest domestic gasoline assets, boosting production from ageing wells.
𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐃𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐏𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧?
🌟 𝑬𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒈𝒚 𝑺𝒆𝒄𝒖𝒓𝒊𝒕𝒚: These discoveries and enhancements are set to substantially enhance Pakistan’s electricity security by means of lowering our heavy reliance on expensive power imports and maintaining precious foreign exchange reserves.
🌟 𝑬𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒐𝒎𝒊𝒄 𝑰𝒎𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒕: The additional production will help bridge the energy demand and supply gap, potentially saving significant foreign exchange for the country.
🌟 𝑬𝒙𝒑𝒍𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑶𝒑𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒕𝒖𝒏𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒆𝒔: The new find de-risks further exploration play in the TAL block, leading to new upside opportunities and enhancing the country’s indigenous hydrocarbon supply and reserves base.
🌟 𝑺𝒉𝒂𝒓𝒆 𝑴𝒂𝒓𝒌𝒆𝒕 𝑩𝒐𝒐𝒔𝒕: The bulletins have positively impacted the percentage fees of the listed oil and gasoline exploration firms, resulting in incredible turnover at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).

𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐅𝐢𝐠𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬:

📈 𝑲𝒂𝒘𝒂𝒈𝒂𝒓𝒉-1 𝑭𝒐𝒓𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏: Successfully examined round 16.Four mmscfd of gasoline and 159 barrels according to day of condensate.
📈 𝑺𝒖𝒊 𝑮𝒂𝒔 𝑭𝒊𝒆𝒍𝒅: Production gain of 19 mmscfd of fuel thru the revamping of SML compressors.
📈 𝑱𝒉𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒊𝒂𝒍-03 𝑾𝒆𝒍𝒍: Discovery of 714 barrels of crude oil consistent with day and 10.2 mmcfd of gasoline.
This is a significant milestone for Pakistan, and we are optimistic about the future of our energy sector. Let’s celebrate this achievement and look forward to more positive developments! 🌍💡

01/08/2024

𝐏𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧 𝐄𝐲𝐞𝐬 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐏𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐚 𝐁𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐌𝐅 𝐑𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐬
In an enormous move to stabilize its economic system and diversify funding sources, Pakistan has obtained 5 bids from Chinese corporations to help in elevating funds through Panda bonds. According to a Bloomberg record, the use of goals to promote as an awful lot as $300 million in Panda bonds for the primary time this year. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb highlighted that this initiative could allow Pakistan to get entry to capital from Chinese traders and diversify its funding resources.

𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐚 𝐁𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐬?
Panda bonds are debt securities issued by using foreign entities inside the Chinese capital markets, denominated in Chinese yuan (RMB). These bonds allow foreign issuers, together with multinational agencies, worldwide financial institutions, and sovereign governments, to tap into Chinese investor capital. The pass to problem Panda bonds marks a strategic step for Pakistan in attaining a new market and broadening its financial base.

𝐁𝐢𝐝𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐚𝐥𝐬
The finance ministry of Pakistan obtained three offers from law companies and two from credit score companies by way of the deadline for proposals. Additionally, neighborhood companies have proven hobby in acting as domestic criminal counsels for issuing the bonds. The proposals are presently underneath evaluation earlier than a very last choice is made.

𝐈𝐌𝐅 𝐃𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐑𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐬
The development comes after Pakistan received a three-year assistance package of $7 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The package aims to promote macroeconomic stability and promote conditions for strong, inclusive and resilient growth. The IMF deal has already had a positive impact, with global rating agency Fitch upgrading Pakistan’s long-term non-defaulting foreign currency rating (IDR) from CCC to CCC+, maintaining its Standard and Poor's (S&P) CCC+ standards Finance Minister Aurangzeb emphasized the need for structural reforms to ensure that this IMF policy was final. He stressed the need for reforms in the tax, energy and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) sectors to stabilize the country in a sustainable manner. Aurangzeb identified the need for a “road to market” focusing on post-export growth and FDI in export-related sectors

𝐏𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲
Aurangzeb emphasized that external borrowing should be focused on projects that could generate foreign exchange, thereby reducing currency mismatches. He emphasized the importance of re-entering international capital markets and integrating equity and debt markets for monetary policy purposes.

29/07/2024

𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐢𝐠𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐏𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧

𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧
Pakistan, a growing nation with a significant younger populace, is at a important juncture wherein digitization ought to pressure substantial monetary growth. However, the USA's modern-day trajectory in terms of hardware infrastructure is regarding. This record delves into the challenges and opportunities within Pakistan's hardware quarter, emphasizing the need for investment and nearby manufacturing to foster financial increase. The report also draws comparisons with different countries like Egypt and discusses the wider financial implications, inclusive of the ones associated with IMF funding, inflation, and financial growth.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐏𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧
𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐮𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐂𝐓 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐝𝐬 𝐎𝐰𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩

Recent surveys imply that between 7% to 14% of Pakistani households own a computer. Even with positive assumptions, simplest approximately quarter of households have got admission to computers. This low pe*******on rate is a significant barrier to digitalizing the economy.

𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐓𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐬

Pakistan's import of computing machines has shown inconsistent trends. In FY24, the country imported 972,590 laptop units, a 40.9% increase from the previous year but still lower than FY22 levels. The import of personal computers saw a sharper decline, with only 659,617 units imported, less than half of previous figures. Total imports of ICT goods fell to $796.1 million in 2023, the lowest in the past decade, exacerbating the digital divide.

𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬

𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐨𝐧 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡
Digital infrastructure is crucial for economic growth. The current state of hardware in Pakistan hampers the country's ability to leverage technology for economic development. The decline in imports and lack of local production capabilities indicate a significant gap that needs to be addressed.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬
The government's mismanagement of currency and resulting trade restrictions have made ICT goods more expensive and less accessible. This not only affects businesses relying on technology but also increases inflationary pressures on the economy. The cost of importing essential hardware components is rising, further straining the economic situation.

𝐈𝐌𝐅 𝐅𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐬
Pakistan's reliance on IMF funding underscores the need for prudent economic policies. To attract investment in the hardware sector, the government must ensure stable economic conditions and favorable policies. This includes reducing additional taxes and duties on ICT goods, which currently hinder the sector's growth.

𝐏𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐋𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧

𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭
Egypt serves as an excellent example of a developing country that has successfully indigenized the production of ICT goods. In 2022, Egypt earned over a billion dollars from ICT goods exports. This demonstrates the potential for Pakistan to follow a similar path by focusing on simpler ICT goods components and gradually building up its production capabilities.

𝐁𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬
Despite the challenges, the hardware sector in Pakistan offers promising business prospects. Companies like Transworld, Nayatel, and RapidCompute have shown that digital infrastructure can be a lucrative business. These groups file net margins frequently in double digits and gross margins typically exceeding 30%, even though the payback period can be prolonged.

𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬

𝐄𝐧𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭
To capitalize on those opportunities, Pakistan needs to encourage funding inside the hardware area. This includes creating an enabling environment for businesses to invest in local production and reducing barriers to import essential components.

𝐆𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐑𝐨𝐥𝐞
The government need to play a proactive position in facilitating this transition. Policies have to intention to reduce import taxes and obligations on ICT items, offer incentives for nearby production, and make certain a solid monetary environment. Additionally, partnerships with global tech corporations may want to deliver inside the vital knowledge and capital.

𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧
While challenges such as low computer possession charges, declining imports, and financial instability persist, the potential for boom in the hardware quarter is significant. By adopting favorable economic policies, decreasing exchange regulations, and encouraging nearby manufacturing, Pakistan can pave the manner for sustainable financial boom driven with the aid of era.

23/07/2024

𝐈𝐌𝐅 𝐘𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐒𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐥𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧'𝐬 $𝟕 𝐁𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐄𝐱𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐅𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐧 𝐄𝐱𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐁𝐨𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐀𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐚

Islamabad, July 23 — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has now not yet scheduled Pakistan’s 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) association for discussion at its upcoming govt board conferences, that are set for July 24, 26, 29, and 31. This omission from the time table comes despite the workforce-stage settlement reached among Pakistani government and the IMF on July 12.

The EFF, worth about $7 billion (SDR five,320 million), ambitions to guide Pakistan's economic reform program. However, it remains situation to approval through the IMF’s Executive Board. For the settlement to boost, timely affirmation of important financing assurances from Pakistan's improvement and bilateral companions is also required.

The postpone in scheduling the discussion could prolong monetary uncertainty for Pakistan, that's relying on the EFF to stabilize its economy and put in force crucial reforms. The subsequent steps rely upon the IMF's govt board's choice and the success of all preconditions set by the Fund.

Source: Business Recorder

22/07/2024

𝐏𝐒𝐗 𝐓𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐊𝐒𝐄-𝟏𝟎𝟎 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 𝐅𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐬 𝐁𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝟖𝟎,𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝐏𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐬
𝑶𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒗𝒊𝒆𝒘
The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a considerable downturn as the KSE-100 index dropped underneath the 80,000 points mark. This decline comes just three days after the index had reached an all-time excessive of 81,800 points. The market's volatility is awesome and has sparked concerns among buyers.

𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞

𝑰𝒏𝒕𝒓𝒂𝒅𝒂𝒚 𝑷𝒆𝒓𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆:

• The trading week began with a bearish trend. The PSX opened with a decline of 391 factors, putting the KSE-100 index at 79,726 factors.
• Throughout the day, the marketplace continued to drop, main to a complete decline of 1713 points, last the day at 78,404 points.

𝑹𝒆𝒄𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝑻𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒅𝒔:

• On the preceding Friday, the inventory market witnessed a pointy fall of one,721 points, last at 80,117 factors.
• However, by way of Sunday, the marketplace showed symptoms of restoration. The bulls regained manage, pushing the KSE-100 index to an unparalleled excessive of 81,800 points throughout intraday trading.

𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭
1. Investor Sentiment: The fast modifications within the index advise substantial shifts in investor sentiment. The preliminary drop could have been precipitated by negative information or profit-taking after the index reached its height.
2. Economic Indicators: Economic facts releases, each domestic and global, probable performed a function. Any unfavorable financial information may want to have contributed to the sell-off.
3. Global Market Trends: The overall performance of international markets regularly affects home markets. A international downturn or geopolitical tensions can effect investor confidence.
4. Political and Economic Stability: The ordinary political and economic surroundings in Pakistan could have big effects on marketplace overall performance. Any instability or uncertainty can lead to market volatility.

𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬
𝑺𝒉𝒐𝒓𝒕-𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒎 𝑻𝒓𝒂𝒅𝒆𝒓𝒔: For those concerned in quick-term trading, the market's volatility gives both dangers and possibilities. Quick shifts in the index can result in enormous profits or losses.

𝑳𝒐𝒏𝒈-𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒎 𝑰𝒏𝒗𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒔: Long-time period traders would possibly view the current drop as a shopping for opportunity, specially if they trust inside the usual increase potential of the marketplace.

𝑴𝒂𝒓𝒌𝒆𝒕 𝑾𝒂𝒕𝒄𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒔: Observing the market trends and knowledge the underlying factors can offer insights into destiny moves and assist in making informed investment selections.

𝐅𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤

The marketplace's future path will rely upon several elements, such as:

Continued financial overall performance and facts releases.
Political developments and balance.
Global market situations and their affect on nearby sentiment.
Investor confidence and marketplace sentiment.
Given the latest volatility, it's far essential for buyers to live informed and be cautious of their trading choices.

𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧
The latest overall performance of the PSX and the KSE-100 index highlights the inherent volatility in financial markets. While the index reached an all-time excessive lately, the following decline underscores the importance of understanding market dynamics and being prepared for fluctuations.

19/07/2024

𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬: 𝐏𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧'𝐬 𝐁𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐥𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐋𝐨𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐏𝐚𝐲𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬
A recent report by the 𝑨𝒔𝒊𝒂𝒏 𝑫𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒍𝒐𝒑𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝑩𝒂𝒏𝒌 (𝑨𝑫𝑩) forecasts the future of Pakistan’s economy with a mixture of cautious optimism and stark warnings. The report, part of ADB’s “Asian Development Outlook”, highlights a stable economic environment for Pakistan while tapping into growth, inflation control and a weak balance of debt control.

𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐏𝐚𝐲𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬
The most shocking revelation is the projection that interest payments will consume a staggering 62% of Pakistan’s economic income. This is a significant increase from the 41% recorded in FY 2022-2023. Such a large portion of revenue directed towards servicing the debt leaves little budgetary space for other important debts such as infrastructure, health and education.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠: With more than half of its revenue tied up in interest payments, the government faces restrictions on investing in development projects or social programs This could slow economic growth and affected the whole of society.

𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐏𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜 𝐃𝐞𝐛𝐭
On a slightly better note, the ADB forecasts a 7 percent decline in public debt, reducing it to 70% of GDP by 2024-2025 but this reduction does not significantly reduce the interest payment burden, and presents a challenge which takes place in the economic system of Pakistan.

Several factors have contributed to the decline in public debt, including sound monetary policy, fiscal austerity and improved revenues but high costs continue to overshadow these efforts, raising questions about current monetary policy of sustainable species.

𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧
Pakistan’s GDP increase in FY2024 is predicted at 2.4%, particularly pushed through agricultural growth. Improved weather and government debt also contributed to the growth. Agricultural manufacturing has end up an important driver of the economic system, offering a buffer against inefficiencies in other industries.

While this improvement is nice, it's far still modest in comparison to nearby friends. ADB’s forecast for South Asia’s growth stays sturdy at 6.3% for 2024, but Pakistan’s help is gradual, requiring a number of increase strategies

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐑𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐬
Inflation in Pakistan has slowed sharply, falling to 11.8% by May 2024 from an outstanding 38% within the identical duration ultimate yr. These discounts led the government to reduce planning fees aimed toward stimulating financial hobby. Lower prices are a welcome alleviation for customers, and the lower fee of dwelling creates extra solid financial surroundings.

However, the broader financial effect of these cuts stays to be seen. Though intended to stimulate funding and intake, higher interest payments could hose down their efforts.

𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬
In a broader nearby context, South Asia is on course to acquire its boom forecasts. However, the economic landscape is blended, with downward revisions for GDP boom in Bangladesh and the Maldives being offset by using upward revisions for Bhutan, Nepal, and Pakistan. The standard boom forecast for the location in 2024 remains unchanged at 6.3%, with a moderate dip anticipated in 2025 to 6.5%.

Pakistan’s modest boom and high debt servicing costs stand in contrast to some of its local friends. For instance, Bhutan and Nepal are predicted to peer upward revisions of their growth forecasts, showcasing greater dynamic monetary environments.

𝐅𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬
The ADB record underscores the urgency for Pakistan to control its debt greater successfully. This entails not simplest reducing the general debt burden however additionally restructuring present debt to decrease interest bills. Additionally, there is urgent want to extend the revenue base, enhance tax collection, and decorate financial diversification.

Investing in sectors past agriculture, which includes production and generation, ought to provide more sustainable boom avenues. Strengthening institutional frameworks, improving governance, and fostering greater conducive surroundings for foreign and home funding also are essential steps forward.

In end, while Pakistan indicates signs of monetary improvement, enormous challenges continue to be. High hobby bills are a formidable obstacle, and dealing with this burden while fostering growth will require prudent economic guidelines and strategic monetary planning. The course ahead is fraught with problems, but with the proper measures, Pakistan can desire to stabilize its economy and make certain a greater wealthy future for its residents.

18/07/2024

𝐏𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧'𝐬 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒-𝟐𝟓: 𝐀 𝐃𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐞𝐝 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐁𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐨𝐧 𝐁𝐌𝐈'𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭

𝑰𝒏𝒕𝒓𝒐𝒅𝒖𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏
Pakistan's economic landscape for the fiscal year 2024-25 is projected to experience a modest yet significant recovery, with GDP growth forecasted to hit 3.2%, according to BMI, a subsidiary of Fitch Solutions. This projection, although slightly below the government's target of 3.6%, reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook amid a backdrop of various economic and political challenges. This report delves into the key drivers of this growth, underlying risks, and the broader implications for Pakistan's economy.
𝑲𝒆𝒚 𝑫𝒓𝒊𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝒐𝒇 𝑮𝒓𝒐𝒘𝒕𝒉
𝟏. 𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲
o 𝑰𝒎𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒕 𝒐𝒇 2023 𝑭𝒍𝒐𝒐𝒅𝒔: The devastating floods of 2023 severely disrupted agricultural activities, leading to economic distress in a sector that employs 40% of Pakistan’s population. The report highlights the importance of agriculture in the country's economic fabric and its role in driving GDP growth.
o 𝑹𝒆𝒃𝒐𝒖𝒏𝒅𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒅𝒖𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏: Preliminary data suggests a significant recovery in agricultural output, particularly in grains production, which rebounded strongly in 2024. While cotton production is expected to decline slightly from 6.7 million 480-pound bags in 2024 to 6.5 million bags in 2025, this still represents the second-largest harvest since 2019.
o 𝑩𝒓𝒐𝒂𝒅𝒆𝒓 𝑬𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒐𝒎𝒊𝒄 𝑰𝒎𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒕: Improved agricultural output is anticipated to boost exports, stabilize rural incomes, and contribute to lower inflation. Additionally, easing foreign exchange shortages will facilitate increased processing activities, further enhancing economic resilience.
𝟐. 𝐄𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧
o 𝑰𝒏𝒇𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑻𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒅𝒔: The report forecasts a sharp decline in inflation from 11.8% year-on-year in May 2024 to 6.2% by December 2024. This reduction is partly attributed to the rebound in agricultural production, which helps stabilize food prices.
o 𝑪𝒖𝒓𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒚 𝑺𝒕𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒛𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏: A stable exchange rate is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, protecting consumer incomes and fostering a conducive environment for increased consumer spending. Consequently, consumer spending growth is projected to rise from 2.6% in FY2023-24 to 3.4% in FY2024-25.
3. 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐄𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠
o 𝑷𝒐𝒍𝒊𝒄𝒚 𝑹𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝑨𝒅𝒋𝒖𝒔𝒕𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔: With the anticipated easing of inflation, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is likely to continue reducing the key policy rate. The forecast suggests a decrease from 20.5% in June 2024 to 16.00% by December 2024, further dropping to 14.00% by December 2025.
o 𝑰𝒎𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒕 𝒐𝒏 𝑬𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒐𝒎𝒊𝒄 𝑨𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒊𝒕𝒚: Lower interest rates are expected to stimulate investment and consumer spending, contributing to overall economic growth. However, the report also notes that fiscal policy will continue to tighten, indicating a balanced approach to economic management.
𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬
Despite the optimistic outlook, several risks could derail Pakistan's economic recovery:
𝟏. 𝐕𝐮𝐥𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐄𝐱𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬
o 𝑨𝒈𝒓𝒊𝒄𝒖𝒍𝒕𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒍 𝑫𝒆𝒑𝒆𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒚: With 40% of the population employed in agriculture, the economy remains highly susceptible to natural disasters such as floods or droughts. Another significant agricultural disruption could have severe economic repercussions.
o 𝑳𝒊𝒎𝒊𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝑭𝒊𝒔𝒄𝒂𝒍 𝑩𝒖𝒇𝒇𝒆𝒓𝒔: The World Bank's Crisis Preparedness Gap Analysis rates Pakistan's fiscal buffers as ‘basic’ or below, indicating limited capacity to respond to economic shocks.
𝟐. 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲
o 𝑭𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒊𝒍𝒆 𝑷𝒐𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒍 𝑬𝒏𝒗𝒊𝒓𝒐𝒏𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕: The report highlights the potential for political instability to disrupt economic recovery. The February 2024 elections resulted in a coalition government, but strong support for jailed opposition leader Imran Khan suggests widespread dissatisfaction with the political elite.
o 𝑷𝒐𝒕𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒊𝒂𝒍 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒕𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒔: Increased political tensions and the possibility of urban protests could adversely impact economic activities, further complicating the recovery process.
𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧
The BMI report presents a cautiously optimistic outlook for Pakistan's economy in FY2024-25, with GDP growth projected at 3.2%. Key drivers include a recovering agricultural sector, easing inflation, and favorable monetary policy adjustments. However, significant risks remain, particularly related to external shocks and political instability. Policymakers will need to navigate these challenges carefully to sustain and build upon the projected economic recovery.

12/07/2024

📊 𝐔𝐧𝐞𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐲𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝟏𝟎.𝟑% 𝐀𝐦𝐢𝐝 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬: 𝐆𝐨𝐯𝐭 𝐒𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐬 $𝟔 𝐁𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐈𝐌𝐅 𝐁𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐨𝐮𝐭
🔗 𝑰𝒔𝒍𝒂𝒎𝒂𝒃𝒂𝒅, 𝑷𝒂𝒌𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒏:
The authorities has recently acknowledged some harsh monetary realities which can be impacting the state. In an in depth briefing to the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb and Secretary Finance Chaudhry Imdad Ullah Bosal furnished insights into the modern financial scenario and ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

📈 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:

1. 𝑹𝒊𝒔𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝑼𝒏𝒆𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒐𝒚𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕:
The unemployment price has soared to ten.Three% in 2024, up from 6.Three% three years in the past, in line with the World Bank.
The remaining reputable labour force survey become performed in 2021.
2. 𝑰𝒏𝒇𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑻𝒂𝒙𝒆𝒔:
Inflation is predicted to peer a slight uptick in the coming months.
Despite the hard financial situations, great economic burdens were imposed on each salaried and non-salaried people via higher taxes and extended costs of residing thru income tax and federal excise duties.
3. 𝑰𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒕 𝑹𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒔:
Current hobby rates stay excessive at 20.Five% regardless of a reduction in inflation to 12.3%.
4. 𝑰𝑴𝑭 𝑩𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒐𝒖𝒕 𝑵𝒆𝒈𝒐𝒕𝒊𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔:
Pakistan is within the final levels of securing a new bailout package from the IMF, that is anticipated to exceed $6 billion and probably growth for the duration of the primary review.
Key earlier moves required by using the IMF include adjustments in energy and gas expenses and the approval of a price range with a number one surplus of 1% of GDP.
5. 𝑺𝒕𝒓𝒖𝒄𝒕𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒍 𝑹𝒆𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒎𝒔:
The government has agreed to several structural reforms, which includes increasing agricultural income tax prices, amending the Pakistan Sovereign Wealth Fund Act, privatization packages, reducing the dimensions of the authorities, reforming State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), and ending gas supply for captive strength flora.
Civil servants in grades 17 to 22 will be required to disclose their assets.
6. 𝑭𝒐𝒓𝒆𝒊𝒈𝒏 𝑰𝒏𝒗𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕:
Foreign direct funding noticed a modest growth to $1.7 billion within the closing monetary year, with a target of $2.1 billion for the brand new economic 12 months. However, the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) has but to seriously impact overseas funding inflows.
7. 𝑭𝒊𝒔𝒄𝒂𝒍 𝑫𝒆𝒇𝒊𝒄𝒊𝒕:
The federal economic deficit for the last monetary 12 months become around Rs8.4 trillion or 7.9% of GDP, surpassing the target of Rs7.5 trillion.
Heavy debt servicing payments in June contributed to an overall monetary deficit of 4.Nine% of GDP for the primary 11 months of the ultimate monetary 12 months.
8. 𝑭𝒖𝒕𝒖𝒓𝒆 𝑶𝒖𝒕𝒍𝒐𝒐𝒌:
The authorities is dedicated to reaching a primary finances surplus of Rs1.234 trillion or 1% of GDP for the contemporary fiscal yr.
Significant development has been made with the IMF on a comprehensive financial policy and reform application, with virtual discussions ongoing to finalize info.
💬 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐌𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐀𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐳𝐞𝐛'𝐬 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭:
"We have nearly completed all of the previous moves, and during this month, we're going to strike a deal with the IMF," introduced Aurangzeb. The new IMF software is anticipated to last among 36 to 39 months.

This certain update highlights the government's acknowledgment of rising unemployment and inflation, the continuing efforts to secure a sizable IMF bailout, and the diverse structural reforms and economic measures being undertaken to stabilize Pakistan's financial system. Stay informed and engaged as we navigate these challenging times together. 💬📉📈

11/07/2024

𝐈𝐌𝐅 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝟒𝟓% 𝐓𝐚𝐱 𝐨𝐧 𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞: 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐆𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐀𝐜𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐞𝐬𝐜𝐞

𝑲𝒆𝒚 𝑯𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒍𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕𝒔:

1- 𝗜𝗠𝗙 𝗕𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻:
• The IMF has counseled a forty five% man or woman profits tax rate on agricultural income as part of its structural benchmarks for a new bailout program with Pakistan.

2- 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗲𝗻𝘁:
• Provincial governments have largely consented to this demand, with negotiations continuing to finalize info.

3- 𝗖𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗧𝗮𝘅 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼:
• Under the Pakistani Constitution, handiest provincial governments can tax agricultural income.
• Agricultural area contributes 24% to the economy but much less than zero.1% to the tax revenue.
• Existing provincial tax prices on agriculture profits range, with a lot lower prices compared to federal private earnings tax fees.

4- 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀:
• Align provincial agricultural profits tax prices with federal income tax prices, with a pinnacle charge of forty five% for non-salaried people.
• Remove profits tax exemptions for the livestock sector by October 2024.

5- 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗗𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀:
𝑺𝒊𝒏𝒅𝒉: Currently has a most rate of 15% on agricultural income; worries raised approximately the excessive proposed fees.
𝑷𝒖𝒏𝒋𝒂𝒃: Maximum cutting-edge rate is 15%; authorities has shown consent to the new regime.
𝑲𝒉𝒚𝒃𝒆𝒓-𝑷𝒂𝒌𝒉𝒕𝒖𝒏𝒌𝒉𝒘𝒂 (𝑲-𝑷): Lower prices and exemptions; agricultural income isn't the main source for maximum citizens.

6- 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲:
• Provinces to amend tax legal guidelines by using October 2024 and start gathering the revised taxes through January 2025.
• Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) might also gather taxes if provinces are not ready.

7- 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀:
• Expected to quit the disparity in profits tax regimes, treating agricultural profits on par with other profits kinds.
• Potential sales generation estimated at 1% of GDP, equal to Rs1.22 trillion.
• Concerns approximately the high tax burden on the rural region and capacity socioeconomic influences.

8- 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀:
• 𝑷𝒖𝒏𝒋𝒂𝒃: Shows readiness to undertake the brand new regime.
• 𝑺𝒊𝒏𝒅𝒉: Initially resistant due to excessive proposed costs but might sooner or later acquiesce.
• 𝑲-𝑷: Lower dependency on agriculture would possibly impact less complicated compliance.

𝗔𝗱𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗜𝗠𝗙 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀:
• Expand the GST on services list and cease exemptions to decorate transparency and decrease loopholes.
• Protect farmers from 18% sales tax on fertilizers and insecticides.
This idea by way of the IMF marks a enormous shift in Pakistan's tax regime, aiming to develop the tax base and boom sales from the rural quarter. The success of this initiative depends on the powerful collaboration among federal and provincial governments and the ability to manipulate the economic affects on the agricultural network.
Source: Tribune

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