Investment Talk - Pauline Yong

08/08/2026

📊 Weekly Market Technical Read: S&P 500 | KLCI | STI (as at 8 Aug 2026, TradingView)

🇺🇸 S&P 500 — Index level: 7,757.64, up 0.62%.
The index clearly broke through the 7,550–7,650 trading range set last week. It closed close to its highest price of the trading day. This move confirms the positive market outlook noted last week.
The RSI stands at 66.49. This value sits above its signal line of 53.43. Last week’s RSI reading was only 52.77. Market upward momentum is growing much stronger, and the rising trend has spread widely across the market.
Market outlook: Positive trend remains in place. However, the large gap between RSI and its signal line signals fast overextension. A small short-term pullback or slowdown is likely before prices push higher toward the 7,800 mark and above.

🇲🇾 FBM KLCI — Index level: 1,735.75, down 0.08%.
The index trades just below the 1,740 resistance level identified last week. It stays trapped inside the 1,715–1,740 sideways range. It trades safely above its 20-day moving average (1,721) and 200-day moving average (1,689).
Current RSI is 61.07, above its signal line of 58.94. This reading barely shifts from last week’s RSI of 60.33 and signal line of 59.11. Upward bullish momentum holds steady, yet it is not picking up speed.
Market outlook: The index will mostly trade sideways with a mild upward tilt. Traders should monitor the 1,740 level; a decisive break above this point will signal a true upward breakout.

🇸🇬 STI — Index level: 5,698.44, up 1.05%.
The index rebounded sharply after last week’s price drop. It has returned to the upper limit of its 5,500–5,700 trading band.
The RSI hits 69.88, near the overbought zone once more. Its signal line now reads 72.00, crossing above the main RSI reading. This reverses last week’s setup of RSI 67.81 above signal line 76.27. This type of technical crossover usually leads to weaker short-term momentum, even if overall prices edge slightly higher.
Market outlook: The core upward trend is still valid. The overbought risk flagged last week has not fully faded. Expect a brief pause or price drop toward the 20-period simple moving average at 5,588 before the next major upward move.

🔑 Takeaway: The S&P 500 has broken its resistance level and shows strong upward momentum. The FBM KLCI is stuck in consolidation, sitting just below its key resistance mark. The STI has climbed back to the top of its trading range, and its RSI and signal line readings still signal overextended market conditions.

All three indices maintain overall positive momentum. However, the overbought technical signals seen last week have not fully faded. Investors should watch for a brief short-term slowdown before prices make their next major upward move.

01/08/2026

01/08/2026

Charts outlook for August week 1

01/08/2026

📊 Weekly Market Technical Read: S&P 500 | KLCI | STI
(as at 1 Aug 2026, TradingView)

🇺🇸 S&P 500 — 7,489.72 (+0.70%)
Holding firm in the 7,300–7,600 range after last week's pullback from the 7,600 high. RSI at 52.77 (above signal at 49.32) shows momentum turning back up from mid-range. MACD is flattening but still above the signal line, suggesting the recent dip was consolidation rather than a trend reversal. Bias: constructive, room to push toward 7,600 resistance next week.

🇲🇾 FBM KLCI — 1,724.90 (+0.26%)
Trading in the 1,705–1,740 band, price back above both the 20-day (1,708) and now closing the gap on longer averages. RSI at 60.33 (above signal 59.11) and MACD histogram turning green again after crossing above signal — fresh bullish momentum, not yet stretched. Bias: upside bias intact into next week, watch 1,740 as the immediate cap.

🇸🇬 STI — 5,628.51 (−0.79%)
Still in a strong uptrend (5,500–5,700 range) and comfortably above both MAs, but RSI at 67.81 (signal 76.27) is flashing overbought after last week's run, with today's red candle a possible early pause signal. MACD remains strongly positive and rising, so the broader trend isn't broken — but a short-term breather or pullback toward the 20-SMA (5,524) wouldn't be a surprise before the next leg up.

🔑 Takeaway: SPX and KLCI both look set to grind higher into next week on constructive RSI/MACD setups. STI's uptrend is intact but overbought conditions suggest a possible consolidation before further gains — worth watching rather than chasing at current levels.

25/07/2026

The Tariff Structure Section 301

25/07/2026

The S&P 500 fell 0.6% this week. It closed Friday at 7,411.98. Still up about 10% YTD. This marks its second weekly drop in a row. The Nasdaq did much worse. It fell 2% for the week, led by the "Magnificent Seven" that suffered their worst single-day loss in over a year. They lost about $787 billion in value in just one session. The problem was spending. Alphabet said its 2026 capital spending could hit $205 billion. This pushed its free cash flow negative for the first time since going public. Future spending commitments swelled to $811 billion. CEO Elon Musk called 2026 "a massive capex year." He said the company should invest as aggressively as possible. Full-year capital spending will top $25 billion. Operating margin crashed to just 1.4%. Wall Street sent a clear message. Investors will no longer cheer AI spending plans. They want to see returns first.

On the other hand, China's Moonshot AI sent fresh tremors through the AI industry this week with the unveiling of its Kimi K3 model, which reportedly rivals the capabilities of leading models from OpenAI and Anthropic at a fraction of the development cost — echoing the DeepSeek shock that rattled markets in early 2025. The concern for Wall Street isn't just competitive pressure on US AI labs; it's the broader implication for the entire AI infrastructure spending thesis. If Chinese developers can build frontier-level models with significantly less compute, the justification for the eye-watering capex commitments announced by Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta this earnings season — running into hundreds of billions of dollars — starts to look shakier. That's a direct threat to Nvidia's demand narrative and the whole chain of AI beneficiaries from chip designers to data centre REITs. For investors who have been paying premium valuations on the assumption that AI infrastructure spending would only accelerate, Kimi K3 is an uncomfortable reminder that the efficiency curve can move faster than the spending curve — and that America's AI moat may be narrower than the market has been pricing in.

Next week, the index has a support seen at 7,260 and resistance at 7,600. The bull market is intact — but it's being stress-tested.📊🇺🇸

25/07/2026

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) fell 30.43 points or 1.76% for the week, closing at 1,701.02. This is the first weekly loss after three consecutive weeks of gains. The index slipped below the 1,700 psychological level intraday before clawing back above it into the close — a fragile recovery that reflects how thin buying conviction remains. The fresh Section 301 tariffs are a real concern for Malaysia's semiconductor sector — with USTR's overcapacity investigation explicitly naming electronics and chips among targeted industries, back-end semicon names like MPI, Inari, and Unisem face not just the current 10% forced-labour rate but the risk of a second, potentially heavier tariff wave later in 2026. Unlike the previous Section 122 tariffs, Section 301 carries no time limit and no percentage cap — making this a more permanent and open-ended headwind for Penang's chip packaging and testing hub.

Next week, the Negeri Sembilan state election on August 1 is the dominant domestic catalyst. As BN is contesting independently from the PH, the outcome of the results will be interesting. Trading range may range between 1,690–1,715. 📈🇲🇾 Sembilan Election

25/07/2026

The Straits Times Index gained approximately 2.1% for the week, closing Friday at 5,588.34 — up 6.58 points or 0.12% on the day and extending its extraordinary 2026 run to a 33% year-on-year advance. That Friday close is particularly telling: Singapore shares finished in the green despite broad regional losses, with Japan's Nikkei tumbling 2.73% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng falling 0.98% as AI spending fears and oil price anxiety dominated sentiment across Asia. The STI's ability to hold and even inch higher in that environment says everything about how the market is being positioned right now — as a defensive safe haven rather than a momentum trade.

Trump announced fresh Section 301 tariffs that weighed directly on Bursa Malaysia and broader regional sentiment, raising concerns about export-oriented economies across Southeast Asia. For Singapore, the tariff read-through is more nuanced than for Malaysia or Vietnam. As Singapore is a services-led economy and a major re-export hub, Singapore is less directly exposed to goods tariffs, but trade flow disruptions and weaker regional demand would inevitably filter through into Singapore's port, logistics, and financial services sectors over time.

Next week, the hyperscaler earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon are the single most important test for whether the AI infrastructure spend thesis remains intact after this week's chip selloff. If big cloud companies confirm continued capex commitment, Venture Corp, ST Engineering, and Singapore's data centre-linked REITs should recover alongside global chip sentiment.The support for STI is seen at 5400, while the resistance is 5,600.

18/07/2026

🏆 How a 17-Year-Old Won a Trading Championship: The "Volatility Breakout" Strategy

A legendary trader famously turned $10,000 into over $1 million, setting a 38-year record. Even crazier? He taught the exact same method to his 17-year-old daughter, and six months later, she won the World Cup Championship of Futures Trading too! 🤯

Here is a condensed breakdown of Larry Williams' legendary "Volatility Breakout" system. Save this for your next trading session! 👇
📊 The Core Rules: 4 Steps to Trade
1️⃣ Step 1: Find the Baseline
Note the High and Low prices of the previous trading day.
2️⃣ Step 2: Calculate the Range
👉 Formula: Previous High - Previous Low = True Range
This measures the market's momentum from the day before.
3️⃣ Step 3: Set Your Entry Triggers
Multiply the True Range by a fixed coefficient (typically between 0.5 and 0.7, depending on your backtesting).
* 🟢 Buy (Long): Today's Open + (Range × Coefficient). Enter when the price breaks above this level.
* 🔴 Sell (Short): Today's Open - (Range × Coefficient). Enter when the price breaks below this level.
4️⃣ Step 4: Strict Risk Management (Crucial)
* Always use a Stop-Loss: Set it immediately upon entering the trade to protect your capital.
* Take Profits: If day trading, close the position before the market closes, or use a trailing stop. Never let a winning trade turn into a loss.
💡 The Champion Mindset
✅ Follow, Don't Predict: Never enter before the breakout happens. Let the market show you its direction first.
✅ Risk Control is Everything: The secret to 100x returns isn't a 100% win rate; it's capping losses at 1% to 2% of your total capital per trade.
✅ Keep It Simple: You don't need messy, complex indicators. Pure price action and volatility are enough.
A great strategy is nothing without flawless ex*****on. Stay disciplined! 📈

18/07/2026

The S&P 500 lost 118 pts or 1.55% for the week, closing Friday at 7,457. The index is now down about 0.56% month-to-date but remains up 8.94% year-to-date.

The Nasdaq slid 2.9% while the Dow lost 0.9%, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF posting its third weekly decline in four weeks, dropping almost 9% over the period. CPI came in below expectations, with inflation easing to 3.5% in June as consumer prices fell 0.4% from May. That was a relief. Goldman Sachs popped 9% after a strong earnings beat, while JPMorgan and Bank of America each rose around 2%. Rate hike odds for July collapsed from 42% to 17% on the back of the soft CPI, and the market rallied hard that session. Then TSMC delivered record AI-powered quarterly results and raised its capex projections through 2027, and yet shares still fell, as sky-high investor expectations went unmet. That set the tone for a broad chip rout: Applied Materials, Lam Research, Intel, KLA Corp., and Arm Holdings each fell about 4%, while Micron and Nvidia dropped more than 2%. The PHLX Semiconductor Index entered bear market territory, down 20% from recent highs, though Schwab noted that the selloff looks more like a valuation and positioning reset than a structural breakdown of the AI infrastructure cycle. The equal-weight S&P 500 held up far better than the cap-weighted version, confirming that the damage is concentrated in the mega-cap tech and chip space rather than broad-based.

Next week, all eyes turn to the hyperscaler earnings — Alphabet reports first and is the most important bellwether for whether big cloud companies are still committing to AI infrastructure capex. This is the next real hurdle for chips: if Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon confirm continued AI spending in their results, the chip selloff may prove to be the healthy consolidation Schwab analysts are describing rather than the start of something worse. The support for the SPX is seen at 7350 and the resistance is 7550.
📊🇺🇸