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14/11/2023

Daily Trading Strategy (14/11/2023)

During the U.S. market on Monday (November 13), market sentiment was relatively positive, the U.S. dollar stabilized, and gold prices hovered at nearly three-week lows. The market is currently paying attention to U.S. inflation data. Last week, Fed Chairman Powell pushed back against market bets for an early interest rate cut, and investors will get clues on monetary policy from more data. Gold prices hovered near three-week lows on Monday as the dollar strengthened and investors awaited U.S. inflation data for more clues on whether the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold or raise them. After plunging by more than $50 last week, spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range around $1,935, waiting for next clues.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Tuesday. A Reuters survey shows that core CPI is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year in October. Both forecast increases are unchanged from September. The dollar rose 0.1% against other currencies after hitting a one-week high in the previous session, making gold less attractive to holders of other currencies. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's value against other major currencies, was slightly stronger near 105.80, holding on to most of last week's gains. Markets also digested news late Friday that Moody's had lowered its U.S. credit rating outlook to "negative," while focus turned to Tuesday's U.S. consumer price index. Fed policymakers including Chairman Jerome Powell suggested last week that the fight against inflation may not be over yet, prompting markets to scale back bets on rate cuts that had pushed up short-term Treasury yields. rate and supported the dollar. In addition to geopolitical risk-driven safe-haven demand and central bank buying, the macroeconomic backdrop is turning to support gold. The analyst added: "The U.S. monetary tightening cycle is coming to an end and the U.S. dollar has peaked. This may lead to weaker U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields and the U.S. dollar, which will support investment demand for gold." Over the Diwali weekend, gold in India Jewelers are seeing brisk sales, with recent price drops driving consumer interest.

Technical analysis of gold: From the daily line, the Bollinger Bands are closed. Gold fluctuated slightly after opening during the day. There is currently no effective breakthrough. After the morning low touched the 1933 line again, there was no intention to break through. On the contrary, it rose. , and the bulls in the European market have been * below 1940, then the probability of gold continuing to break higher in the evening is very high. The most likely thing is that there will be a small correction and then a rebound, and the key pressure above gold in the short term remains at 1945 The first line, this position is also the key defensive position in the evening, and the support below is first maintained at the 30 line, touching the support of the golden section point 0.382, which is the first retracement support in the daily upward trend. At the beginning of the week, pay attention to whether the support strength of 1932-1930 can be stabilized. Although the short-term chart is still slightly bearish, the daily line serves as a callback in the trend. If it can recover steadily at the first support, the daily line can still come out strong. Otherwise, further decline will change the upward structure of the daily line.
From the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands opened downward, and the price of gold encountered resistance and fell after rebounding to the middle track. The trend fluctuated and was bearish. In the short term, focus on the two resistance positions above. One is the top-bottom transition position of 1956, which rebounded last week. The first line, the other position is the resistance of the middle track of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, which is the 1965 first line. Although the current indicator of gold is seriously oversold, there is a need for a rebound to repair the indicator in the short term. However, once the market rebounds and repairs, it is expected to usher in a new round of decline. The current repair of 1932 and 1930 is the key support in the early stage and is also the middle track of the weekly Bollinger Bands. The support is as well as the 10-day and 20-day moving average support, so this point also determines whether the gold short position can continue further!
The 1-hour chart steps down. The previous high point is the critical point, and breaking the low point of 1945-1950 forms resistance. From the perspective of the small cycle structure, it will fall back in the short term, but the daily line has differentiated, and the daily line has touched the support area of the callback. Pay attention to whether it can start to stabilize and rebound today and tomorrow. If it does, it will continue to change and rise. On the whole, today's gold short-term operation thinking is He Bosheng's suggestion to mainly do longs on callbacks, supplemented by shorts on rebounds. The top short-term focus will be on the 1958-1963 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus will be on the 1935-1930 first-line support.

13/11/2023

Daily Trading Strategy (13/11/2023)

On Friday, U.S. markets continued a series of recent losses, with gold prices falling to their lowest in more than three months. Previously, several Fed officials warned that the market should not bet on the Fed stopping raising interest rates. Safe-haven demand for gold also weakened as markets priced in less the risk of a war between Israel and Hamas. Spot gold prices fell 1.04% to $1,938.18 per ounce, falling as low as $1,932. The Fed has raised interest rates by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022 in an attempt to bring inflation down from a four-year high. Fed officials, who keep a close eye on consumer attitudes toward price trends, want to see inflation expectations fall before changing consumer behavior and reversing their gains in slowing price increases. This week, several Federal Reserve officials warned again that U.S. interest rates will remain high for longer and that the market should remain vigilant and not bet on rate cuts prematurely. They noted that inflation is a sticky problem and the resilience shown by the U.S. economy could mean more rate hikes this year.
Inflation expectations remain high and gold prices are under pressure. The U.S. dollar strengthened modestly, driven by a hawkish Fed, while gold prices remained subdued. A series of influential Federal Open Market Committee members struck a hawkish tone this week, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that policymakers were unsure whether limits on interest rates would be enough to further slow the pace of inflation. That took the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. government bond off one-month lows and supported the dollar, which in turn weighed on non-interest-bearing gold prices. Inflation expectations remain high and gold prices remain under pressure. The gold market remains under strong selling pressure and has largely ignored persistent inflationary pressures and weaker-than-expected consumer confidence data that suggested slower consumption growth. Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish comments yesterday could set the stage for a higher-than-expected report on U.S. consumer or producer price inflation next week. If inflation falls slower than expected or even rises, it could put upward pressure on the economy. U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar could provide headwinds for gold. The U.S. dollar has a big week ahead due to key risk events. Investors need to pay attention to major U.S. data, including CPI and Fed speeches. At the same time, the looming U.S. government shutdown should also be of concern. This situation bodes ill for gold, as higher interest rates drive up the opportunity cost of investing in gold, which has no yield.

Gold technical analysis: Last week, gold suffered its biggest decline in three weeks. It fell by 60 US dollars during the week and opened at 1988. It rebounded slightly in early trading to this week's high of 1992.93 and then started a downward trend. It fell to 1944 on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. On the first line, Thursday's rebound corrected and tested the 1970 pressure level and fell back again. On Friday, it continued downward and broke through the bottom to the low of 1932.85 line. The closing price was 1938 line. The weekly line closed with a large negative line, engulfing the form in form, suggesting that the overall outlook for gold will continue to be bullish. Downward.
Judging from the golden daily line: last week was generally affected by the short-term 5-day and 10-day moving averages, showing a volatile downward trend. Gold's upward momentum has not continued over time. To reiterate, as long as the 5-day moving average has not broken through and stood on the previous high, we tend to continue to be bearish and may expand the short-term adjustment space, which may touch the monthly moving average near 1932, or even the 1900 mark. Currently, it has fallen below the key support level of 1944.
From the perspective of the golden 4 hours: the K line shows a weak trend when it is under pressure from the short-period moving average. Although prices rebounded slightly after hitting near the early support band on Thursday, the rebound was neither strong enough nor sustainable enough. Therefore, gold may continue to be weaker in the short term. Considering that there may be a continued downward trend, we need to pay attention to the key support level of 1930 below. Once gold breaks out, we may see more room to fall. The 1-hour K-line continued to fall, the Bollinger Bands opened and diverged downwards, and the macd crossed downwards to increase the volume below the 0 axis. Gold is in a short trend, and gold is expected to continue to fall again. Overall, today's short-term operation ideas for gold are He Bosheng suggested that callbacks should be the main focus and rebound shorts should be supplemented. The upper short-term focus should be on the 1953-1958 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term focus should be on the 1930-1925 first-line support.

10/11/2023

Daily Trading Strategy (10/11/2023)

Powell's speech maintained tightening bias, but gold prices resisted rising pressure on the dollar and U.S. bond yields
On Thursday (November 9), as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell maintained his tightening bias, he said that although inflation has declined, the central bank is still not confident that it can be controlled. Powell's hawkish speech helped the dollar and U.S. bond yields rise, but had little impact on gold, which closed slightly higher. Spot gold closed up 0.41% (or $8.04 per ounce) to $1,958.20 per ounce.
Powell spoke during a panel discussion at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. Powell said the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is committed to achieving a monetary policy stance that is restrictive enough to reduce inflation to 2% over time; we are not confident that we have achieved such a stance," the economy said. Improvements in problems have helped bring inflation down by 2022 from a 40-year high in June 2022; however, he said improvements in economic conditions have done all they can to lower inflation, "Looking ahead, progress has been made in lowering inflation." Of this, a large part will likely have to come from tight monetary policy that stifles aggregate demand growth. "
U.S. Treasury yields halted their plunge last week and are climbing, but have failed to suppress gold prices. After Powell's speech, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield and the U.S. dollar index continued to rise.
Investors believe that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged is 91%, while the probability of the first interest rate cut is expected to be in June 2024, with a probability of 42%.
The gold market reacted little to Powell's hawkish comments. Spot gold has successfully found solid support around $1,950 per ounce.
Investors will be closely watching the Fed's Logan Speech, November's preliminary US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and the UoM 5-year consumer inflation forecast. These events could point the way for gold prices.

Gold technical analysis: Gold prices have shown a clear downward trend recently. Judging from the daily chart, gold continued to close the negative line yesterday, and the price continued to break through the bottom. MA5 and MA10 were dead crosses, KDJ was moving downwards, and MACD was dead cross and created a green energy column. These technical indicators all indicate that gold’s downward trend has been formed. . The central axis support position is near 1945. In terms of form, it is a trend of three consecutive negative trends. We should beware of the trend of bottoming out and rebounding today. The central axis support position of weekly K is around 1940. There are changes in structure. There is room for deepening adjustment from the previous strong bullish consolidation, while the small cycle is This is a somewhat bearish move. The short-term situation has turned.
On the 4-hour chart, gold prices are stuck in the recovery and recovery process after bottoming out. Although the technical indicators MA5 and MA10 are dead-crossing, KDJ is running near the 20-day line, MACD is running a green energy column dead-crossing, in the 4-hour chart, the stochastic indicator is dead-crossing twice, which is a signal of a new low, BOLL opens downward, and the main A short signal. From the hourly line, gold is still in a process of slow decline, and the idea remains unchanged. Although the continued decline makes the gold price still bearish, to repair the gap, we must choose to go long at low levels to follow the trend. The gold trend has entered to repair the upper gap, so do not go short blindly. The operation idea is still to choose low and long. If the support position 1948-1950 can block it, it will be temporarily stable; the upper pressure position is the 1970 line. The price of gold is expected to break this Friday, so please pay attention. Taken together, today's gold short-term operation thinking is He Bosheng's suggestion to focus on callbacks and shorts, with the upper short-term focus on the 1970-1975 first-line resistance and the lower short-term focus on the 1948-1943 first-line support.

09/11/2023

Daily Trading Strategy (09/11/2023)

Geopolitical risk premium fell, gold price fell for three consecutive weeks and hit a new low in nearly three weeks
Gold prices fell for the third consecutive trading day on Wednesday (November 8) as investors looked for new clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance. Spot gold closed down $18.91 per ounce on Wednesday, or 0.96%, to $1,950.16 per ounce.
Although the situation in the Middle East is unpredictable, wider conflicts have not occurred. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continues to rise. The political risk premium accumulated on precious metals is beginning to fall back. Despite recent market dynamics, there are still reasons to be optimistic about precious metals. That said, one catalyst that could put upward pressure on its price is a pullback in interest rates. Last month, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield exceeded 5.0%, but has since fallen back sharply. Today, the 10- and 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yields fell by at least 5 basis points. If this correction accelerates in the near term, the backdrop for gold and silver will become more constructive. But U.S. Treasury yields, which remain elevated, have fallen back to more than a decade highs, cutting off a major bullish channel for spot gold prices.
Gold prices came under selling pressure again on Wednesday as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers have dominated recent times, raising hopes that the central bank can achieve its goal of curbing inflation. Market participants had hoped for a different tone in Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Fed's statistical meeting. However, the Fed chairman failed to touch on monetary policy, but he will continue to speak tomorrow, when it may still be possible. However, gold prices may struggle to recover as investors become cautious ahead of Fed Powell's speech.
Investors need to be aware of the weekly jobless claims report due out this Thursday. The next major report in the US will be the Consumer Price Index on November 14th.

In terms of gold technology, yesterday's continuous negative trend fell below the previous day's low and closed at a low level. The opening showed a weak negative negative trend at the high point, and the daily line formed a continuous negative combination. The transition from a high to a rising market has been negative, and the decline for more than three trading days has broken the previous strong pattern, and fell below the 1956-1953 low to close below. The key support defense was broken, forming a short-term long-short position. Conversion, short-term conversion. In addition, the daily line has retreated from the high level. It will continue to deepen the adjustment space. Yesterday was the third trading day, and it failed to start strongly and regain lost ground. There have been changes in structure, from the previous strong consolidation of bulls to deeper adjustment space, while the small cycle is a bit bearish. In the four-hour chart, yesterday's rebound was under pressure at 1970. The break of the previous low was tested back to the opening. The break was confirmed but failed to be recovered. It fell again and broke the low in late trading. In four hours, the lower track of Bollinger Bands opened, and the middle track pressed downward to form resistance. The middle track coincided with yesterday's high point of 1970. It has become the dividing point between short-term strength and weakness today. Below 1970, the short-term trend is expected to fall further. In the hourly chart, there is a consolidation-type small-step downward channel. Due to the failure to regain lost ground in late trading, it closed at a low level. It will continue to fall today, and the area of 1957-1960 that breaks the low is today's resistance. It will fall back in a small cycle, but the daily line is still adjusting in the trend. Pay attention to the support strength of the golden section point 0.382. The area below close to 1930-1933 combines with the small cycle pattern to start a stable backhand long position. The daily line has entered an adjustment period, that is, the market has fluctuated widely. There are opportunities for both long and short positions. The key lies in the entry point.