20/01/2017
Key market-moving promises made by Donald Trump in the extended run-up to his Friday inauguration, and an outlook for potential market implications.
KEY TRUMP PROMISE
Increased fiscal spending/stimulus – particularly on infrastructure & defense
__Effect on Stocks ---BULLISH – increased economic growth & industrial production help boost equity markets
__Effect on USD---BULLISH - increased spending leads to higher inflation & interest rates, pushing up USD
__Effect on Gold----BEARISH – higher growth, interest rates, dollar, and stocks should weigh on gold
KEY TRUMP PROMISE
Lower corporate taxes – down to 15% from 35%
__Effect on Stocks---BULLISH – lower taxes increase after-tax cash flow & earnings, and bring income back to U.S.
__Effect on USD---BULLISH – economic growth through lower taxes & fiscal stimulus boost interest rates/USD
__Effect on Gold---BEARISH – higher growth, interest rates, dollar, and stocks should weigh on gold
KEY TRUMP PROMISE
Financial deregulation – repeal heavy regulations on Wall Street and corporate America
__Effect on Stocks---BULLISH – fewer regulatory hurdles increase financial & banking activity, fostering business growth
__Effect on USD--- BULLISH – increased financial activity leading to economic expansion should lift interest rates and USD
__Effect on Gold---BEARISH – higher growth, interest rates, dollar, and stocks should weigh on gold
KEY TRUMP PROMISE
Increased job creation – retain and create jobs in the U.S.
__Effect on Stocks---BULLISH – more jobs lead to higher spending and demand, and increased business growth
__Effect on USD---BULLISH – better employment rate leads to hawkish Fed & higher interest rates/USD
__Effect on Gold---BEARISH – higher growth, interest rates, dollar, and stocks should weigh on gold
KEY TRUMP PROMISE
Protectionist trade policies – tariffs and restrictions on Mexican, Chinese imports and others
__Effect on Stocks---BEARISH – restrictions on trade can create trade wars and backlash on US companies doing business abroad
__Effect on USD--- BULLISH against targeted EM currencies, BEARISH overall if trade wars result
__Effect on Gold---BULLISH if trade wars result, which could boost gold as a safe-haven currency alternative
While Donald Trump has made many other assurances besides the ones noted above, these key promises have been, and should continue to be, the most salient issues potentially moving markets going forward.