10/09/2025
Key Bearish Signals:
Resistance Zone (Purple Box at ~3645–3660):
Price has tested this zone multiple times but failed to break out decisively → indicating strong supply / selling pressure.
Rising Trendline Tested:
The trendline support is intact for now, but candles are showing hesitation near resistance while volume is not expanding strongly on up-moves.
RSI Divergence (Bearish):
RSI is near 66–68, close to the overbought zone.
Price made higher highs, but RSI is not making equally higher highs → showing a bearish divergence.
Volume Weakness:
Recent bullish candles have lower volume compared to earlier rallies, which indicates momentum is cooling off.
Doji / Small-bodied candles near resistance:
Suggests indecision and exhaustion of buyers.
Bearish Confirmation Levels:
Below 3621 (orange support line): If price breaks and closes below, it may trigger downside towards 3565 and then 3497.
Stronger breakdown: Below 3565 (green line) could accelerate selling.
Bullish Invalidations:
If price closes above 3660 with volume, bulls regain control and rally could extend higher.
👉 In short:
Bearish signs are present, but sellers need to break 3621 support to confirm a deeper correction.
For now, market is in consolidation at resistance, so watch for either a breakout or breakdown.
📉 Bearish Setup (if breakdown happens)
Entry: Below 3620 (wait for 4H candle close below)
Stop Loss: Above 3665 (just above resistance box)
Target 1: 3565 (next demand/support zone)
Target 2: 3497 (major support)
Risk-Reward: ~1:2 to 1:3 depending on entry/exit
📈 Bullish Setup (if breakout happens)
Entry: Above 3665 (strong 4H close with volume)
Stop Loss: Below 3620
Target 1: 3720 (measured move)
Target 2: 3750–3770 (extension)
⚖️ Strategy
Right now, price is inside a consolidation box (3620–3665).
Best approach: Don’t enter inside the box → wait for a decisive breakout or breakdown.