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16/04/2019

News and Impact

· Expect market to open on a flat not on account of global cues and impressive domestic data. U.S. Dow Jones halted a three-day advance (down 0.1%) after disappointing results from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. dragged down bank shares. However, European market advance after Chinese trade and lending data showing signs of improvement for the world’s second-biggest economy.

· Asian markets are witnessing mixed bag. Nikkei Index declined marginally while Hong Kong Index gained 0.2%. SGX Nifty is up 15 points or 0.1%. US Future is up 0.1%.

· IMD says near normal monsoon and fall in oil price (Brent Crude fell to below $71/bbl from a five month high) will be boosted the market sentiment. However, traders buy on dips in the market.

· Expecte rangbound market ahead of holiday tomorrow and second phase of election on 18th April. Sentiment is positive on account of strong FIIs buying and global market rally. However, yesterday India Vix climbed up over 6 month high at 22.24.

· Major events to be watch – Polycap IPO listing, Wipro results and buy-back and Jet Air meeting with SBI and other lenders.

· Watch on Dr Reddy – Company has got clean chit from US FDA on its Hyderabad plant. It will be big positive on Dr Reddy.

· Polycab IPO will be listing today. It has been subscribed by 52 times and price band Rs538 a share. Expect a strong opening of Polycab IPO. Expect other Cable related stocks like Havell and V-Gurad will be positive.

· Brokers Radar – ITC – Macquary BUY ITC 376, Goldman Sachs BUY ICICI TGT 492. Macquary – Neutral Rating on Dr Reddy TGT 2648

· Vodafone Idea Limited. (VIL) has said that its promoter shareholders -- Vodafone group and Aditya Birla Group-- will participate for an amount of up to Rs 20,000 crore in the Rights Issue, instead of the previously announced amount of up to Rs 18,250 crore. – Positive for Idea, it has gained 6% yesterday.

· Watch on Wipro – Company will be announced Q4 results today and also to announce share buy-back. Company has over 350bn reserve its balance sheet and market cap over Rs185bn. Expectation of Dollar terms revenue $2090mn (up 2.1% YoY) and EBITDA margin 21.8% and EBITDA growth 1.5% (YoY). Net profit expectation Rs24.748bn (down 2.7% QoQ)

· Sector to be watch – Tech, Auto, Banking

· Actionable – Dabur India, TCS, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank

· Monsoon Rain Seen Near-Normal This Year - Rain in the June-September monsoon season is likely to be 96% of the long-term average, India’s weather office says – Expects positive for Tractors stocks (M&M, Escorts), FMCG (Dabur, Hindustan Unilever) and Auto stocks.

· Tata Metalik reported poor Q4 results. Company reported 14% declined income and EBITDA margin fell to 13% from 16% last year.

· Mindtree Board meeting today on L&T Buy-back issue. Media news of Board may announce counter buy-back – We have a neutral on the stock.

· Alembic Pharma gets US FDA nods for Bimatoprost Opthalmic Solution - Positive for Alembic Pharma, we have a buy rating on stock.

· Blue Star expands operations in Middle East - Positive for Blue Star after expand its business in overseas

· ICICI Bank names Subramanin Madhavan independent director - Positive development on ICICI Bank

· Pennar Industries to increase Hydraulic capacity from 75000 to 2lakh - Positive for Pennar Industries to increase production

· WPI for the month of March at 3.18% vs 2.93% in the previous month - Bloomberg expectation 3.23% - March WPI is better than expectation. Expect rate cut by RBI in the next policy meeting (June) after a stable March CPI and WPI data. Positive for Banks, NBFC stock - SBI, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, BoB, M&M Finance, Shriram Transport

· Prakash Industries sets April 15 as effective date for de-merger - Positive for Prakash Industries will be demerge its Cement and Steel business.

· India Non-Bank Microfinance Lenders Turn to Securitization (ICRA): Non-bank finance companies that make microfinance loans increased their reliance on securitization tomeet growth targets in the fiscal year ended March 2019, Moody’s-unit ICRA said in a note - Positive for NBFC - We have a buy rating on NBFC like L&T Finance, Muthoot Finance , Mas Financial.

· Tata Tele Maharashtra - DoT conditional nod on demerging Tata Tele Maharashtra unit into Maharashtra - Positive for Bharti Airtel after the news of de-merge Tata Tele Maharashtra.

· Government approves extension of duration of new gas based Urea Policy - The government Monday decided to extend the duration of the New Urea Policy from April 1 this year till further orders to ensure smooth supply of nutrients to farmers - Extension of gas based policy will be positive for Fertilizer stocks like RCF, GSFC, GNFC (not our coverage)

· Axis Bank Ltd. has hired Ratan Kesh, Yes Bank Ltd.’s former group president, as an executive vice president for its retail banking business - Positive for Axis Bank

· TV18 Board Cast reported lower than street estimates of Q4 EBITDA margin (Not our coverage). Company reported Q4 net profit Rs281.6mn vs 27.6mn previous year, tax gain Rs170.4mn, EBITDA up 14.4% at Rs517mn, EBITDA margin fell to 4.4% vs 6% (YoY) and income Rs11.8bn (up 56% YoY) - Profit increase Bharti Airtel and Cisco announce strategic alliance. Airtel to offer managed SD-wan, Cisco webex solution - Positive for Bharti Airtel - We have a buy rating on the stock.

· ICICI Bank names Subramanin Madhavan independent director - Positive development on ICICI Bank

· Board Meeting – Wipro and IDBI Bank, Results - Wipro

05/04/2019

News and Impact

· Expect market to open on a positive note on account of global cues. US Dow Jones gained over half percent after reported impressive US Job data and hope of trade negotiation between US and China. Nikkei and South Korea Index gained 0.3% each. China and Hong Kong Index shut today. SGX Nifty gained 16 points.

· Global stocks held near the unchanged mark, as investors looked for more detailed signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks while disappointing economic data out of Germany knocked the euro. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday trade talks with China were going well and he would only accept a “great” deal as negotiators hammered out differences ahead of a meeting between Trump and China’s vice premier later in the day. After a run of mixed economic data, Friday’s U.S. payrolls report also loomed large for investors for signs the labor market remained robust. Labor market data on Thursday showed weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest since 1969.

· Major trigger today – Polycab IPO open today, Jet Air stake sale, Outcome of US-China Trade talks, movement of USDINR and G-Sec Yield after a RBI credit policy announcement.

· There was major concern in the market that the USDINR spiked 73 paisa to close at 69.16 and 10-Year G-SEC Yield spiked 1% (7bps) to close 7.34% yesterday after the RBI announced credit policy. Moreover, FIIs were net sellers in the last two trading sessions. Traders buy on dips in the market.

· Update of RBI Policy - RBI cut interest rate by 25bps from 6.25% to 6%. RBI keeps unchanged CRR at 4%. It is inline with expectation. The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to lower rates, while maintaining a neutral policy stance, signals a cautious and data-dependent approach. Inflation undershooting the RBI’s revised-down projections and a slowdown in growth argued for a rate cut. The neutral stance suggests the central bank remains wary about high core inflation, which has eased only marginally since the last policy review in February. It also lowered GDP growth forecast for the 2018-19 to 7.2 per cent from 7.4 per cent predicted in February policy. RBI interest cut may not be a major impact in the market because it has been already factor in the market.

· Sectors watch – Banking and NBFC, Metal, Pharma and Tech stocks

· Watch on Pharma and Tech stocks – Expects positive for Tech and Pharma stocks as benefit of rising USDINR. Our top pick are Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Lupin, Aurobindo Pharma

· Actionable – Lupin, Infosys, SBI, BoB, Titan

· Brokers Radar - Cyient Upgraded to Buy at Maybank; Price Target 650 Rupees. Titan – Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan and Macquire TGT 1200-1250, Goldman Sachs – AB Fashion BUY TGT 249. Morgan Stanley BUY Jothy Labs TGT 250

· Watch in India Bull Housing – Media news that the India Bull Housing likely to acquire stake on Lakshmi Vilas Bank. Media news that the next week board meeting on India Bull Housing will take final decision. Both India Bull Housing and JK Lakshmi Vilas Bank gained 4% and 10% respectively.

· Watch on Cement stocks - Media news that the GST council may cut GST on cement - It will be positive for Cement stocks. South based Cement players hiked Cement price few days back. Cement stocks not yet participated in the market rally. We are positive on UltraTech, ACC, Birla Corp, JK Cement.

· Watch on Titan - Titan said it witnessed strong revenue growth for the third straight financial year even as the industry is struggling with liquidity squeeze and high gold prices. Titan, that expects sales to grow at 21 percent for the financial year ended March 2019, has also been able to keep its operating margin above 10 percent for four quarters in a row – Positive for Titan after announced strong growth.

· The country's largest car maker Maruti cut vehicle production by around 21 percent across its factories in March due to subdued demand. The auto major produced a total of 1,36,201 units in March, including Super Carry light commercial vehicle, down 20.9 percent from 1,72,195 units in the year-ago period – Cut in production on account of maintained inventory – We are positive on Maruti.

· Watch on Zee Entertainment - Billionaires Mukesh Ambani and Sunil Bharti Mittal are considering competing bids for a stake in a troubled Indian television network, people with knowledge of the matter said, as their telecom carriers race for content in the world’s second-biggest mobile market (Bloomberg) - Positive for Zee Entertainment if stake sale at higher price.

· Watch on Tech Mahindra – Today will be final day for share buy-back – share buy-back price Rs950 a share.

· Balrampur Chini Board meeting today for right issue and Muthoot Finance Board meeting today for dividend announcement.

· Cipla received Establishment Inspection Report on its Goa manufacturing plant by the U.S. FDA. The inspection took place between Jan. 21-28 – We are neutral on the stock. Any decline will be a buying opportunity.

· Hindustan Copper said that its copper production of 41.22 lakh tons is 12 percent higher than the last fiscal year 2019.

· Alembic Ltd – Company received Establishment Inspection Report on its Goa manufacturing plant by the U.S. FDA. The inspection took place between Jan. 21-28 – We are positive on the stock. Any decline will be a buying opportunity.

· Jet Airways (India) Ltd.’s lenders said they would invite bids for selling stake in the airline on April 6 as part of a time-bound resolution plan – Positive development on Jet Airways.

· Godrej Properties raises stake in Wonder space to 96.03% - Positive for Godrej Properties, stock is all time high after announced a strong sales growth. We are positive on Oberoi Realty.

· Bandhan Bank-Gruh Finance deal: Both companies filed their respective application for the scheme of amalgamation to the NCLT – Positive development.

· GM Breweries reported poor Q4 results – Company reported - Revenues up 4.5 percent at Rs 117.37 crore. Net profit down 1.5 percent at Rs 24.3 crore. EBITDA down 16.1 percent at Rs 27.91 crore. Margins at 23.8 percent vs 29.6 percent.

· Bulk Deal update - Wipro - LIC acquired 3.86 crore shares (0.65 percent) at Rs 258.9 each. Custodian of Enemy Property for India sold 4.44cr shares (0.75 percent) at Rs 258.9 each. Redington India - Marina IV LP acquired 45.57 lakh shares (1.17 percent) at Rs 97 each. Standard Chartered PE Mauritius sold 45.57 lakh shares (1.17 percent) at Rs 97 each. Varroc Engineering Smaller World Fund sold 17.75 lakh shares (1.32%) Rs575 a share. Justdial Morgan Stanley France SAS sold 3.78 lakh shares (0.58 percent) at Rs 579.55 each. Hinduja Global Solutions Fidelity Funds acquired 3.92 lakh shares (1.88 percent) at Rs 625 each.

· IGL to increase consumer price of PNG in Delhi by Re1/kg and PNG by 0.7/SCM - Positive for IGL

· Mid-cap Tech major Zensar Tech started operation in Mexico and Latin America - Positive for Zensar Tech

· Maruti Suzuki March production declined 20.9% - fall in production on account of adjustment of inventory. Company reported better than expected March monthly sales volume - We have a buy rating on the stocks

· IPO Update Polycab - IPO will will be open today. Largest manufacturer of electric wires and cables plans to raise nearly Rs 1,345 crore from its three-day initial public offering, which opens tomorrow. Polycab India Ltd. is offering nearly 2.5 crore equity shares at a price band of Rs 533-538 - We are positive on Polycab and recommendation to subscribe.

· Metropolls IPO subscribed 47% only – we have a long term positive on the stock.

· Yes Bank plans to raise about Rs30bn via share sale - Yes Bank is planning to raise about $500 million through a share sale to institutional investors as it seeks to bolster capital ratios and expand lending capacity - Positive for Yes Bank

· Media news that the Singtel, Bharti Airtel looking to buy Dish TV stake - Positive for Dish TV if stake sale.

· L&T wins Hydrocarbon orders worth Rs10-25bn - Strong orders book and improved margin will be positive for L&T - Buy

· Tata Motors- Media reports suggested that Jaguar Land Rover US sales showed sequential improvement in March. As per media reports, on a sequential basis (month-on-month), sales increased by 13.4% in the North America market. JLR, with 25% of sales from the US market, had sold 11,616 units in February 2019 - Turnaround of Tata Motor US sales volumes will be positive for Tata Motors

· SRF - The company said that it received a revocation order from Gujarat Pollution Control Board for its plant in Dahej - Positive for SRF, stocks gained 4% yesterday after the news

· Dividends – Colgate, Board Meetings – Muthoot Finance