04/03/2026
If you've been watching your portfolio this week, I understand why you may be worried.
The strikes on Iran began on February 28th. Oil surged. The Dow swung 1,200 points in a single session. South Korea's market had its worst day since 2008. European gas prices spiked. The headlines are genuinely alarming.
And if you're feeling the urge to do something, to sell, to move to cash, to sit this one out, that feeling is completely human. It's also exactly where this chart comes in.
Right now, a lot of investors are somewhere between Anxiety, Denial, and Fear on this curve. The internal monologue sounds like: "Is this a temporary setback? Should I just wait it out? Or is it actually different this time?"
Here's what the data says:
Strategists at Carson Group studied 40 major geopolitical events over the past 85 years, from World War II to more recent Middle East conflicts, and found the S&P 500 lost an average of just 0.9% in the first month, then rose 3.4% over the following six months.
Analysts note that "geopolitical events have a long history of contributing to near-term volatility, but those disruptions typically do not have a sustained impact on the market's longer-term growth trajectory."
The key variable right now is whether this conflict remains short and contained, or escalates into a prolonged regional disruption, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. That uncertainty is real. Nobody has a crystal ball.
But what we do know is that the investors who panic-sell during the Fear and Desperation phase are the same ones who miss the recovery in the Hope and Relief phase. They lock in losses. They sit in cash while markets climb. They repeat the cycle.
This chart isn't just a psychological curiosity. It's a description of why most retail investors consistently underperform the market, not because of bad stock picks, but because of bad timing driven by emotion.
You don't have to be fearless right now. Fear is rational. But fear-based decisions about your long-term portfolio are almost never rational.
If your investment strategy was sound last month, the Iran conflict, as serious as it is, probably hasn't changed your mid to long-term outlook.
Stay the course. Or at minimum, don't make permanent decisions based on emotions and temporary headlines.
