Just Financial Group - PB

28/12/2022

An interesting graphic from Visual Capitalist as the world's population hits 8bn.

Read more....https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualized-the-worlds-population-at-8-billion/

25/12/2022

Wishing you a joyous, colorful, and love-filled Christmas. May this Christmas bring happiness and peace to you.

All our best wishes to you this Christmas.

08/08/2022

July marked an impressive recovery for global stock markets, with the MSCI All Country World Index gaining 7% to post its best monthly return since November 2020. Although aggressive interest rate hikes were announced, government bond yields, on the whole, declined, as a clear softening in economic data stoked concerns of a forthcoming slowdown.

This has been viewed positively by equities as investors increasingly expect it will expedite the process of ending the hiking cycle and, in the US at least, lead to interest rate cuts next year. Cuts in 2023 after inflation has been successfully reined would be a favourable development, but we remain a little cautious and believe the market is currently a little overly optimistic in this regard.

US equities outperformed in July with broad-based indices adding more than 9%, despite another 75 basis point increase from the Federal Reserve (Fed) which leaves the Federal Funds Rate at 2.25%-2.50%. Growth stocks outperformed value stocks and small-caps were broadly in line with large-caps. More than half of large-cap firms have reported earnings for the second quarter, and the results overall have been pretty solid. The ratio of companies beating forecasts versus those missing has fallen, but the big picture remains better than some feared. That said, the results are backward looking and there are signs that economic activity has slowed since then which explains the downward revisions in earnings estimates. The Fed has also raised interest rates by 1.5% since the period reported on and the impact of this will likely be seen in the results for the third and fourth quarters of the year.

The world’s largest economy is now in a technical recession after the US advance GDP for Q2 showed a 0.9% contraction quarter-on-quarter. While this satisfied the definition that two consecutive quarters of negative growth signals a recession, other metrics, such as a fall in personal income or lower employment, are yet to be met. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell from just over 3% to 2.65% by the end of July. The gap between two-year and 10-year bonds is now as deeply inverted as it has been in 16 years, around 30bp. Inversions of this segment are commonly seen as a sign that the economy is expected to slow.

(QC Commentary Aug '22)

08/08/2022

What a privilege it is to support Pilkington JFC along with JB&B Leach, and welcome the U7 Giants, Titans and Panthers for their first season. They look like little legends in their new kit.

A first class volunteer lead community football club, now with 21 junior teams and 250 players!

05/08/2022

The BoE raised the Base Rate by 0.5% to 1.75% yesterday with narrative that interest rates could hit 3% by the end of 2023. We have had a decade of "cheap money" in the market post credit with many consumers never borrowing outside these times of fiscal stimulus.

A graphic from the BoE showing what interest rates have been in the not so distant past.

05/08/2022

Some big gains in the last month.

18/07/2022

Some people blame the lask of productivity growth on distractions such as digital games and social media. But here's another explanation: more active government support has undermined creative destruction, the lifeblood of capitalism

A culture of government bailouts and constant stimulus is a barrier to technological innovation and dynamism

13/06/2022

A difficult day in investment markets today. Difficult to discern if they are pricing something specific in, on days like this.

Feels like a liquidation across the board, notably in tandem with further crypto sell-off; a lot of crypto bets were/are leveraged so potentially some spillover into whatever can be sold to meet margin calls there; also equity margin debt still v high.

24/05/2022

Perserverance Pays - Chart from Quilter Cheviot.

This chart demonstrates the negative impact of missing the best days in the market. While it might seem preferable to avoid bear markets, many of the largest daily gains occur during these periods. Missing these days by divesting into cash would have a clear and significant detrimental impact on your overall returns.

The bar on the left-hand side shows how much a £1m portfolio invested in UK shares (reinvesting dividends – see chart 3 below) at the start of the year 2000 would be worth now – it would have more than doubled. The bars to the right show how much it would be worth had you missed the best 10, 20 and 40 days in the market. Notice that the portfolio would have lost value during this period had you missed the best 20 or 40 days in the market.

24/05/2022

The case for staying invested - from Quilter Cheviot.

This chart shows the performance of US shares from the end of December 1979 to the end of April 2022. Overall, the picture is encouraging with investors enjoying positive returns during the period, despite several significant declines along the way - the market experienced seven bear markets, defined as a market decline of 20% or more. Downturns aren’t rare events and typical investors, in all markets, will experience many bear markets during their lifetime.

17/05/2022

Following Bailey's comments this week around inflation, are we heading back to the 1970's?

Podcast from Cazenove Capital Management.

With inflation rising there are worries we could be in for a damaging repeat of the 1970s. Keith Wade, Schroders Chief Economist, explains what happened and why it's still relevant now.

17/05/2022

An interesting infograph on Cognitive Bias. Be the best version of yourself.