13/01/2026
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Global markets posted steady gains during the fourth quarter of 2025, with several equity indices finishing the year near record or multi-year highs and capping a strong period for risk assets overall. For the first time in several years, non-US equities significantly outperformed the US market for the full year. A number of factors drove that break from American market dominance, including a weaker US dollar, attractive valuations outside the US and a rotation by some investors away from US technology stocks. All these trends contributed to strong gains in Europe, Asia and emerging markets.
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Over the fourth quarter of 2025, global equity markets delivered modest but steady gains. Despite headlines highlighting US markets reaching all-time highs, returns in sterling terms were comparatively muted over 2025 due to the weakness of the US dollar. In the fourth quarter, US market returns were supported by Alphabetโs rise to challenge Nvidia in AI chip design, while the latter remained steady. The healthcare sector performed well after leading companies reached drug pricing agreements with the US Government. UK and European equities were also buoyed by financials, with healthcare stocks performing strongly. The UK market additionally benefited from the materials sector, which rallied on the back of rising precious and industrial metal prices.
Emerging markets ex China continued their rally in the final quarter of 2025 as the AI theme and its supply chain attracted attention. Technology-heavy markets such as South Korea and Taiwan benefited, while Chinese equity markets and their AI leaders declined, reflecting their underlying reliance on consumer spending amid weaker economic data.
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After inflation in the UK hovered at nearly double the 2% target during the summer months, it subsided to 3.2% by November. This enabled the Bank of England to implement a final rate cut in December, which supported gilts across the curve, as did the smooth passage of the UK Budget. A similar trend in inflation was observed in the US, following a gap in coverage due to the Government shutdown. US inflation eased to 2.7% in November, allowing the Fed to focus on the employment aspect of its mandate.
Corporate bonds enjoyed another positive quarter, ending 2025 on a strong note. Credit spread compression and higher starting yields helped them outperform government bonds this year. Consequently, those segments of the bond market carrying greater risk, such as high yield bonds, proved to be more attractive allocations in 2025.
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Precious metals were the clear standout performers across the commodities complex in 2025. Gold rose by more than 60% for the year, while silver posted gains exceeding 140%. Both metals are considered โsafe-havenโ assets and benefited from investorsโ concerns about ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, a weaker US dollar, moderating but still elevated global inflation, and expectations of slower global growth. Silverโs price gains were also driven by a tight supply of the metal and its critical role in the production of solar energy technologies, electric vehicles, and AI-related infrastructure such as data centres.
Industrial metals also had strong performance. Copper climbed to record highs and closed out a landmark year, supported by persistent supply constraints, a softer US dollar, and rising demand linked to electrification, grid investment and data-centre expansion, particularly in China. Lithium likewise ended the year higher, reflecting continued growth in battery storage and electric vehicle demand.
In contrast, energy markets underperformed. Oil prices declined steadily through the year, with West Texas Intermediate crude ending 2025 at $57 per barrel. That represented a nearly 20% drop for the year, the sharpest annual decline in oil prices since 2020. The weakness reflected a combination of global oversupply, expanding production from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers, and softer demand growth amid slowing economic momentum.
Source: AJ Bell and Schroders