27/11/2025
Budget Response 1.
The politics of raising more money through income tax.
The question of whether the Chancellor of the Exchequer has broken the Labour Party's election manifesto pledge by creating fiscal drag through freezing income tax thresholds hinges entirely on the precise wording and interpretation of that pledge.
1. The Literal Wording of the Manifesto
The core Labour Party manifesto pledge from the 2024 general election stated that they "will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT."
Argument for NO breach (Technical/Literal interpretation): The Chancellor, by freezing the thresholds (the Personal Allowance, Higher Rate Threshold, etc.), has not increased the rates of Income Tax, National Insurance, or VAT. The basic rate remains 20%, the higher rate remains 40%, and so on. Therefore, the pledge, read literally, has been kept. The mechanism of the tax increase is through the threshold, not the rate.
2. The Practical Effect of Fiscal Drag
Argument for a BREACH (Spirit of the law interpretation): Fiscal drag is a mechanism where, as wages rise due to inflation (or general pay increases), the fixed tax thresholds mean:
More people start paying income tax for the first time.
More people are pulled from the basic rate (20%) into the higher rate (40%).
People pay a higher proportion of their total income in tax because a greater part of their earnings falls above the fixed allowance.
In practical terms, the freeze is a "stealth tax" that significantly increases the tax burden on working people. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) confirm that this measure generates billions in revenue, largely by hitting the "squeezed middle"—including nurses, teachers, and police officers—who are dragged into the higher rate.
3. The Official Position
The Chancellor and Labour officials have consistently argued that they have kept the promise because they did not raise the headline rates of the major taxes mentioned in the manifesto.
However, the political and economic consensus is that:
The letter of the manifesto pledge has been kept, but the spirit of the pledge—to keep taxes low for working people—has been broken.
Ultimately, whether the Chancellor "broke" the pledge is a political and rhetorical judgement, not a technical one. The action leads to more working people paying more tax, which contradicts the overall message and intent of the promise to keep taxes on working people "as low as possible."