02/01/2026
Every year the smartest people in finance make confident market predictions. And every year… the market reminds them who’s really in charge.
📈 In 2025 the S&P 500 finished the year at 6,845.50
➡️ +16.4% return
What did the experts predict?
Morgan Stanley 6,500
Goldman Sachs 6,500
UBS 6,600
Bank of America 6,666
Deutsche Bank 7,000
Stifel 4,609
Most clustered together. Most were wrong. Some were spectacularly wrong.
📈The FTSE 100 closed the year at 9,931.38
➡️ +21.5% — its best year since 2009
What did analysts say beforehand?
• Most forecasts: 8,500 – 8,800
• UBS: 8,200
• AJ Bell: 9,000
• General outlook: “modest recovery”
Reality?
💥 A huge rally
💥 Financials strong
💥 FTSE actually outperformed the S&P 500
Markets don’t follow headlines. They don’t obey forecasts. They don’t care what “experts” think.
They respond to:
✔ company earnings
✔ innovation
✔ global economic growth
✔ long-term value creation
This is why the most costly investment strategy is:
👉 “Waiting until things feel clearer”
Because clarity always arrives after the opportunity. A good financial plan doesn’t rely on predictions. It relies on discipline, diversification and time.
Disclaimer: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments can go down as well as up. Seek professional advice before investing.
