25/06/2026
German beer is in its sharpest structural decline on record — and the strategic story is more nuanced than the headline.
Sales fell 6.0% in 2025 to 78 million hectoliters, the lowest since 1993. The base case projects approximately 71 million hectoliters by 2031. But Germany is simultaneously the world's largest non-alcoholic beer market: non-alcoholic share grew from 5% in 2015 to 10% in 2025, with a base case trajectory to 14% by 2031 — driven by rapidly expanding craft non-alcoholic portfolios.
Three dynamics define the 2026–2031 opportunity:
— Ready-to-drink cocktails and premixed drinks are the only growth category: approximately €1.0–1.3 billion in 2025, projected to grow at 6.5% per year
— New EU recycled packaging rules require 25% recycled plastic in drink bottles from 2025, and bottle deposit return for all single-use drink containers up to 3 liters from 2029
— Bottled water has plateaued at approximately 12 billion liters; flavored and functional water are taking share from still water
36 pages. 13 charts. Named company competitive landscape. Three probability-weighted scenarios through 2031.
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This study is for informational purposes only. All projections are based on publicly available data and assumptions. Actual results may vary.