19/05/2026
The next Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, is walking into one of the toughest macro environments in recent history.
BIP Wealth CIO Eric Cramer, CFP®, CFA® breaks down exactly what's at stake:
▶︎ The Producer Price Index hit 6.0% YoY through April 2026, nearly matching the 6.2% full-year 2022 reading that preceded 9.1% consumer inflation.
▶︎ The Fed has quietly stopped shrinking its balance sheet and is buying Treasuries again, a move that expands money supply and adds inflationary pressure.
▶︎ The 30-year Treasury yield has been testing 5%. A move toward 6% could put serious strain on housing, credit markets, and a national debt now approaching $40 trillion.
Warsh faces a genuine dilemma: lower rates as the White House prefers, and risk stoking inflation. Shrink the balance sheet as he's long advocated, and watch long-term rates climb.
In 2022, BIP Wealth pivoted our fixed income exposure to protect clients when the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index fell 13.01%, its worst annual performance ever. We're prepared to run the same play now.
Read Eric's full analysis of the job Kevin Warsh is walking into ⬇️
BIP Wealth CIO Eric Cramer breaks down what Kevin Warsh's appointment as Fed chair means for inflation, interest rates, and your portfolio in 2026.