10/23/2026
Does the stock market really perform differently during election years?
Historically, the S&P 500 has averaged:
📈 Non-election years: 15.9%
🇺🇸 Presidential election years: 11.6%
🗳️ Midterm election years: 8.6%
But there’s more to the story! Excluding 2002 (midterm year) and 2008 (presidential election year), two years marked by significant market declines, improves the historical election-year averages. This highlights how a few unusually difficult years can skew the data.
The takeaway? With midterm elections approaching, investors should be prepared for potential increases in volatility and the possibility of lower returns. But historical averages don’t predict what will happen next. Making emotional decisions based on political headlines can be more harmful than staying focused on a disciplined, long-term strategy.
At Sterling Heights Financial Group, we believe your financial goals, not election outcomes, should drive your investment decisions.
Source: Clearnomics, S&P 500 historical total returns through December 2023. Past performance is not indicative of future results.