29/05/2026
Bernstein Research has set a $75 per barrel long-term oil price target for equity valuations.
Analyst Neil Beveridge bases this on tightening supply fundamentals: global marginal costs are projected to rise to $77/bbl from $69 in 2025 as inflation feeds into production expenses.
Industry reserve life has fallen to a 20-year low of 10.4 years, well below the 13-year historical average, removing a key supply buffer and creating a price floor.
Reinvestment is also lagging, with the global ratio at 61% versus 80-90% historically, as firms spend cautiously amid uncertainty from the clean energy transition.
While the IEA expects EVs to displace over 5 million bpd of oil demand by 2030, Bernstein argues near-to-medium term supply constraints could still drive periodic price spikes.